Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

Latest recon 23.77N and 81.52W, she is booking due west.

[Windy]

Wonder whatever happened to that guy on the Carnival Cruise ship that decided to sail right into the hurricane?

[LAwxrgal]

Whoever decided Sunday evening to divert the plane from Phillippe and send it to Rita close by, ought to be commended. It was a smart move. While Phillippe is weakening out over the open Atlantic, Rita is strengthening close to home...and threatening someone on the Gulf Coast...

[gunner1551]

Down to 976 mb

[skysummit]

Is this what's going to happen??? I see the high moving west, but the forecast calls for it to move NE out the way. Will that trough continue moving east and then the high stop moving west and start to migrate northeast behind the trough allowing Rita to turn up the western perimeter of the high?

Does that make sense? I'm trying to understand the whole high moving northeast thing.

[LAStorm01]

I'd like to know an explanation as well...Help!

[cjrciadt]

Eye center due S. or Key West.

[southerngale]

Good question skysummit. I've been trying to understand it all better too. If what you're pointing out is the high, the map I saw on local news showed it retreating east in a few days, causing Rita to then move NW or NNW. But then I thought she was moving faster than forecast, so that would be good for me on the Upper Texas coast because she would "outrun" the ridge moving out and make her northern turn later, thus landfalling further south on the Texas coast. My question: is she moving faster than forecast? Everyone is saying she is, but it still shows landfall late Friday, the same as it did yesterday morning, and *maybe* the night before that. I don't remember for sure.

One more thing, if the ridge extends that far in the GOM, how is she even moving west toward it? Maybe she'll make a U-turn and go back to Africa.

[Swimdude]

She's NOT moving faster. We were calling for a FRIDAY NIGHT landfall last night, and NOW we're predicting SATURDAY MORNING.

Ironically, it has slowed!

[Sanibel]

The reason the storm is moving 15mph is because it is under the ridge.

Key West has dodged this Straits shooter. NHC nailed this track 36 hours out.

We had torrential band with 30mph gusts from first feeder band for 5 minutes. Now dry slot overcast. Rita 200 miles south of Sanibel.

Eye is getting better defined as it passes 25 miles south of Key West. North half now filling in with eyewall band...

[djtil]

sorry if already posted but latest SHIPS intensity peaks at 143mph in 48hrs now....followed by slow weakening...probably due to lower SST as she moves west.

this is a BIG jump.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE RITA (AL182005) ON 20050920 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050920 1800 050921 0600 050921 1800 050922 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.9N 81.7W 24.4N 84.0W 24.7N 85.9W 25.2N 87.5W
BAMM 23.9N 81.7W 24.3N 83.8W 24.7N 85.9W 24.9N 87.9W
A98E 23.9N 81.7W 24.0N 84.6W 24.1N 87.2W 24.1N 89.1W
LBAR 23.9N 81.7W 24.2N 84.2W 24.4N 86.7W 24.6N 89.1W
SHIP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS
DSHP 85KTS 103KTS 116KTS 122KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050922 1800 050923 1800 050924 1800 050925 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 89.0W 27.6N 92.5W 29.7N 95.8W 31.7N 96.4W
BAMM 25.2N 89.7W 25.8N 93.0W 27.5N 94.3W 31.6N 94.8W
A98E 24.3N 90.7W 24.5N 93.7W 25.3N 96.1W 26.6N 96.5W
LBAR 25.1N 91.6W 27.0N 95.5W 30.0N 97.7W 33.1N 97.6W
SHIP 125KTS 120KTS 105KTS 81KTS
DSHP 125KTS 120KTS 56KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.9N LONCUR = 81.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 23.1N LONM24 = 75.9W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

[jkt21787]

agree strongly with intensity forecast of the SHIPS, I am predicting moderate cat 4 at peak, weakening to mod cat 3 at landfall due to drier air, some land interaction, and slightly lower SSTS and heat content closer to the coast.

[deltadog03]

it looks like she is slowing somewhat...anyone else seeing this??

[Brent]

it looks like she is slowing somewhat...anyone else seeing this??

18z models have a FASTER forward speed.

[skysummit]

it looks like she is slowing somewhat...anyone else seeing this??

I noticed that on radar, but I didn't want to say anything.

[deltadog03]

yeah, for the past hour its moved like 8nm....

[HouTXmetro]

Can recon confirm that she is slowing? If so whats the significance on her future path despite most of the models shifting south?

Also doesn't that mean the High is weakening if she is slowing?

[loon]

Can recon confirm that she is slowing? If so whats the significance on her future path despite most of the models shifting south?

Also doesn't that mean the High is weakening if she is slowing?

Which models shifted south? I see most of them moving north..*sigh* I wish we had one spot for info, heheheh.

[jkt21787]

Can recon confirm that she is slowing? If so whats the significance on her future path despite most of the models shifting south?

Also doesn't that mean the High is weakening if she is slowing?

Which models shifted south? I see most of them moving north..*sigh* I wish we had one spot for info, heheheh.

Most of the models did shift south, the consensus is also further south, but pretty much along NHC. Before though the consensus was north of NHC.