Rita Recon Reports

[Derek Ortt]

all models show no shear until Texas landfall. Not sure where you are getting the idea of moderate shear until Texas, unless you are using the latest shear analysis. The ridge is expected to expand westward

[superfly]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Showing current shear in the central GOM around 20kts and increasing. Supposedly, an anticyclone is supposed to form but I'm no expert so I'm just reading maps.

[dwg71]

all models show no shear until Texas landfall. Not sure where you are getting the idea of moderate shear until Texas, unless you are using the latest shear analysis. The ridge is expected to expand westward

Derek- at what point will we see high pressure dome begin to move NNE as forecast. It seems to be digging further west almost to AZ.

[JamesFromMaine2]

430
SXXX50 KNHC 201611
AF300 1018A RITA HDOB 47 KNHC
1600. 2453N 07951W 03051 0130 145 050 058 058 051 03228 0000000000
1601 2455N 07950W 03049 0131 144 055 066 066 057 03227 0000000000
1601. 2457N 07950W 03053 0136 136 053 068 068 056 03235 0000000000
1602 2459N 07949W 03045 0139 126 053 070 070 057 03231 0000000100
1602. 2500N 07950W 03050 0144 124 054 072 072 058 03241 0000000100
1603 2500N 07952W 03051 0139 121 056 080 080 060 03237 0000000000
1603. 2459N 07953W 03039 0137 125 052 076 076 054 03223 0000000000
1604 2457N 07954W 03050 0133 139 045 068 068 050 03230 0000000000
1604. 2456N 07955W 03048 0131 142 045 070 070 046 03225 0000000000
1605 2455N 07957W 03049 0130 140 047 068 068 049 03226 0000000000
1605. 2454N 07958W 03046 0129 140 046 060 060 047 03223 0000000000
1606 2453N 08000W 03050 0129 140 046 074 074 046 03227 0000000000
1606. 2451N 08001W 03046 0129 141 048 080 072 049 03222 0000000000
1607 2450N 08002W 03047 0127 141 046 080 080 048 03221 0000000000
1607. 2449N 08004W 03051 0126 144 047 082 068 047 03224 0000000000
1608 2448N 08005W 03047 0124 146 048 086 072 048 03218 0000000000
1608. 2447N 08007W 03049 0123 145 048 086 070 048 03219 0000000000
1609 2446N 08008W 03046 0122 147 049 090 066 049 03215 0000000000
1609. 2445N 08009W 03050 0120 146 049 090 066 049 03218 0000000000
1610 2444N 08011W 03047 0119 143 049 090 064 050 03212 0000000000

[djtil]

in stewarts early morning discussion he didnt sound terribly impressed with the conditions in the gulf....fwiw.

[southerngale]

in stewarts early morning discussion he didnt sound terribly impressed with the conditions in the gulf....fwiw.

If you mean the 5am, it was Franklin.

[AZS]

583
URNT12 KNHC 201640Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1601Z
B. 23 DEG 49 MIN N
81 DEG 10 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 027 DEG 83 KT
G. 307 DEG 43 NM
H. 979 MB
I. 14 C/ 2429 M
J. 20 C/ 2446 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C50
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1118A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NW QUAD 1554Z

[Windspeed]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Showing current shear in the central GOM around 20kts and increasing. Supposedly, an anticyclone is supposed to form but I'm no expert so I'm just reading maps.

That is the outflow stream from the hurricane. As it moves westward, the anticyclone is forecast to expand at the 200mb level all the way into the northwestern GOM. Therefore, doesn't look like shear is going to be our friend.

When you're looking at a shear velocity map such as this one, try to look for outside features that would induce shear, such as a digging mid-to-upper level trough, or an inverted upper tropospheric feature from the southwest. If we're going to get any kind of shear before this thing makes landfall in Texas, that's probably where to look. Unfortunately, this storm may very well be inland into Texas before any such features could induce weakening shear velocities in the mid-levels of the hurricane.

[AZS]

778
URNT12 KNHC 201649
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/16:33:30Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
081 deg 14 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. 80 kt
E. 39 deg 026 nm
F. 130 deg 083 kt
G. 39 deg 027 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 12 C/ 3043 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 25
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:25:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 35 / 15NM


Almost a CAT 2

[Windtalker1]

Local met (Brian Norcross) just said that Hurricane Hunters have found 90MPH winds at the surface 1:02PM est Fl

[PurdueWx80]

Local met (Brian Norcross) just said that Hurricane Hunters have found 90MPH winds at the surface 1:02PM est Fl

He's probably getting that from the latest VDM, which shows winds near the eyewall estimated at 80 kts by meteorologists on board - basically, they come up with this based on what the sea surface looks like from the eye.

[Brent]

Geez... Down 10 mb since this morning.

[oneness]

NHC just upgraded to Cat 2 100 mph.

Will be in 2 PM advisory.

[AZS]

RITA now with winds of 100 mph

[cjrciadt]

NHC just upgraded to Cat 2 100 mph.

Will be in 2 PM advisory.

A Major by 5pm!!!!!!!!??????????

[dwg71]

Moving Due west, I thought models had it going WNW now and west later. 5AM coordinates 23.7N and 79.5W so .1N and 1.7W. I'm not buying into anything that gets this above 24N anytime soon.

10PM on Sunday 22.9N and 73.3W now 23.8N and 81.2W. thats .8N and 7.9W over 38 hours.

Ortt's track looks very good.

[soonertwister]

NHC just upgraded to Cat 2 100 mph.

Will be in 2 PM advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1711.shtml

[Brent]

[AZS]

243
URNT12 KNHC 201746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/17:30:30Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. 65 kt
E. 121 deg 009 nm
F. 215 deg 075 kt
G. 126 deg 014 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 9 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E240/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 30
MAX FL WIND 85 KT W QUAD 16:46:40 Z
RAGGED EYE

[cjrciadt]

9:15 992mb
2:00 976mb