Rita,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cajungal
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#21 Postby cajungal » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:55 am

Looks a lot better for Louisiana. All model runs shifted south and west. Not 1 model takes it into Louisiana at this time. I guess the high pressure is too strong and she is moving too fast.
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#22 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 8:57 am

cajungal wrote:Looks a lot better for Louisiana. All model runs shifted south and west. Not 1 model takes it into Louisiana at this time. I guess the high pressure is too strong and she is moving too fast.


Thank God and let's hope it continues. It looks like I'll be heading to Texas over the weekend.
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#23 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:01 am

no no cajungal, its not even in the gulf yet and believe me models will change a lot more....keep a very close eye
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#24 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:05 am

Image
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#25 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:06 am

I'm feeling a bit more confident about this area being safe. I know that conditions may change and the track is not set in stone, but hour by hour, I'm feeling a bit more confident.
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#26 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:06 am

DIE Clipper. :lol: We need rain, not a hurricane.
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#27 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:07 am

wasn't katrina forecasted to hit Pensacola as it was at this point in the gulf?
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#28 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:08 am

CronkPSU wrote:wasn't katrina forecasted to hit Pensacola as it was at this point in the gulf?


East of Panama City as a Cat 1 or Marginal 2... then it shifted way west to Pascagoula, then New Orleans.
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#29 Postby skysummit » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:09 am

Brent wrote:DIE Clipper. :lol: We need rain, not a hurricane.


I don't believe the clipper is a real model.
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#30 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:09 am

skysummit wrote:
Brent wrote:DIE Clipper. :lol: We need rain, not a hurricane.


I don't believe the clipper is a real model.


It's not... from wxman57:

CLIPER -- CLImatology and PERsistence. No physics, not a real model. It's used by forecasters to determine if their forecasts have any skill at all. If you can't beat climatology and persistence, then you're not a very good forecaster.
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#31 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:10 am

what is up with the LBAR actually not being an outlier and hitting either mexico city or tampa???
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#32 Postby Brent » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:10 am

CronkPSU wrote:what is up with the LBAR actually not being an outlier and hitting either mexico city or tampa???


Scandalous. :P
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#33 Postby dwg71 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:11 am

LaBreeze wrote:I'm feeling a bit more confident about this area being safe. I know that conditions may change and the track is not set in stone, but hour by hour, I'm feeling a bit more confident.


I am too, as far as a direct hit from Rita, I suspect that this will be a Freeport to Brownsville hit. JMO.
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karenfromheaven
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#34 Postby karenfromheaven » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:21 am

alicia-w wrote:Since the other thread was locked and my question is still unanswered, I'm asking again....

HurricaneGirl wrote:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html




Can someone tell me what the numbers on the right side of the loop mean?


I'll take a stab at it! Here is what I found after a little Google searching:

CIMSS Water Vapor Imagery Tutorial
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/wv/wv_intro.htm

I think the numbers in your link are the Equivalent Brightness Temperatures, expressed in degrees Kelvin. I think the brightness temperature is computed from the Planck function as a convenient way to represent the intensity and wavelength of the energy striking the satellite detector.

Sorry for the brevity -- I'm late for work!
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#35 Postby alicia-w » Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:23 am

excellent, thank you.
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#36 Postby AZS » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:01 am

11AM NHC:


Winds now of 85 mph.
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#37 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:05 am

latest advisory has the winds up to 85 mph...that shot up pretty quickly
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#38 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:09 am

~Floydbuster wrote:My forecast of 20/11/7 is sticking


Gotta give you credit ... I thought that was over the top when you made that prediction, but it's going to wind up having been pretty close. :eek:

(my 13/8/4 prediction was a dead issue long ago) :oops:
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#39 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:09 am

CronkPSU wrote:latest advisory has the winds up to 85 mph...that shot up pretty quickly


Said that hrs ago it looked 85...Right on!
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Dave C
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hi

#40 Postby Dave C » Tue Sep 20, 2005 10:10 am

I liked Avila's last line in the 11am discussion. "For those who follow the skinny black line it's good to remember the track uncertainty increases in the 3-5 day time frame". :lol: :lol: :lol:
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