Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[gotoman38]

hmmmm..... :longwait:

[GalvestonDuck]

The mayor was talking about it on KPRC also -- still waiting for the newest advisory.

[Brent]

85 mph... and well inland Saturday at 8am

HURRICANE RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
1500Z TUE SEP 20 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 81.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 60SE 60SW 105NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 81.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 81.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[loon]

or C) there is some model output that is ALMOOOOSSTTTT Ready and there are 14 forecasters staring at a progress bar that is at 100% but isn't done yet... =]

[Brent]

[Brent]

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM
DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK
WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND
95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE
EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED
WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS
THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.

RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS
ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES
OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW
JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT
3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 23.8N 81.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 24.0N 83.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 24.5N 88.3W 90 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 24.5N 90.5W 95 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.0N 94.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 29.5N 96.4W 65 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE...THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM. SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 59 MPH...95 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH...117 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENNISULA. RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...23.8 N... 81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[deltadog03]

hey, that avila disco..was pretty good

[jwayne]

did track shift at all?

[LAwxrgal]

hey, that avila disco..was pretty good

Yeh, it was short and to the point. Basically, right now, somewhere in Texas is bullseye

[Brent]

did track shift at all?

If it did, it wasn't by more than a few miles.

[loon]

The angle she comes in seems to have changed a little, more of a northernly component at landfall...is this good or bad for Houston?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Hurricane Rita : Tracking Map | 5 Day Forecast Map | Historical Map | Public Advisory | Marine Advisory | Discussion | Satellite Map | Strike Probability | Strike Probability Map | Wind Map | Cumulative Wind Map | Coordinates | Computer Models | Storm History / Verification

[jwayne]

The angle she comes in seems to have changed a little, more of a northernly component at landfall...is this good or bad for Houston?

it ain't good

[LAwxrgal]

The angle she comes in seems to have changed a little, more of a northernly component at landfall...is this good or bad for Houston?

I hate to say this, and I have a family member in Houston now, but with the projected landfall where it is, Houston looks to get the right-front (bad) side of the storm. If I were you I would keep monitoring and seriously consider an evacuation plan.

[dwg71]

The angle she comes in seems to have changed a little, more of a northernly component at landfall...is this good or bad for Houston?

it ain't good

Landfall would be 150 miles from Galveston, so I dont think we would see Hurricane force in Houston... if track verifies. I think it will be more like 250 miles down the coast.

[Brent]

The angle she comes in seems to have changed a little, more of a northernly component at landfall...is this good or bad for Houston?

it ain't good

Landfall would be 150 miles from Galveston, so I dont think we would see Hurricane force in Houston... if track verifies. I think it will be more like 250 miles down the coast.

Actually, plot the points, with a straight line between the 72 hour and 96 hour projections, landfall is 75 miles SW of Galveston in Matagorda.

[no advance]

Hopefully we can get this on land where Brett came onshore yrs ago. Only killed a few cows I believed.

[Coredesat]

Rita now a Cat 2:

000
WTNT63 KNHC 201711
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MH WINDS
AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[MiamiensisWx]

*IMPORTANT NOTICE - SPECIAL ADVISORY SOON AT 2PM*

The special advisory at 2PM will be released in about 10 to 15 or 20 minutes.

EDIT - Typing mistakes... sorry!