She's gonna be Annular....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im staring at Sat pics right now and praying to god Im wrong but I think Im staring at a future sub 930 Cat 4/5 Annular Cane headed for the TX coast and we can't do a damn thing about it. Its time for the N/C TX coast to get out and get out now before we look at more death's. This is no Jokes folks Rita has the potential to get as bad as Katrina(strength wise). The conditions will be optimal for nothing but strengthing all the way ashore. I hope the Economy is ready because Mother Nature is pissed off and she is going to unleash one nasty mess, this time in TX...

Prediction here stands Cat 4 140 between Freeport and Galveston..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Portastorm]

And what are you basing this on? Your eyeview of the satellite presentation?

[tw861]

No thanks, why don't you close your eyes then take another look, because I don't want to have anything to do with what you are seeing now.

[linkerweather]

Im staring at Sat pics right now and praying to god Im wrong but I think Im staring at a future sub 930 Cat 4/5 Annular Cane headed for the TX coast and we can't do a damn thing about it. Its time for the N/C TX coast to get out and get out now before we look at more death's. This is no Jokes folks Rita has the potential to get as bad as Katrina(strength wise). The conditions will be optimal for nothing but strengthing all the way ashore. I hope the Economy is ready because Mother Nature is pissed off and she is going to unleash one nasty mess, this time in TX...

Prediction here stands Cat 4 140 between Freeport and Galveston..

You might want to throw one of those disclaimers atop this post

[no advance]

What I suggest Destructo go outside and scream "I cant take it anymore".

[Mac]

Im staring at Sat pics right now and praying to god Im wrong but I think Im staring at a future sub 930 Cat 4/5 Annular Cane headed for the TX coast and we can't do a damn thing about it. Its time for the N/C TX coast to get out and get out now before we look at more death's. This is no Jokes folks Rita has the potential to get as bad as Katrina(strength wise). The conditions will be optimal for nothing but strengthing all the way ashore. I hope the Economy is ready because Mother Nature is pissed off and she is going to unleash one nasty mess, this time in TX...

Prediction here stands Cat 4 140 between Freeport and Galveston..

It's possible, but annular hurricanes are rather rare. And as far as "optimal" conditions go, she won't be hitting those for a couple of days yet. First she has to take close to the same track that Katrina did through the first part of the Gulf. In this area she will be over comparitively cooler SSTs due to upwelling in the wake of Katrina. She also has a bit of dry air to contend with. But after she gets past the point where upwelling occurred--THEN she will be in much closer to "optimal" conditions, assuming the anti-cyclone sits in above her (as is expected) and shear remains low. If she does go annular, I would not expect it to occur until she is closer to a line directly south of the TX/LA border, or points west from there.

[robjay]

Uh, probably been asked before, but what is the significance of an annular hurricane??

[jkt21787]

I doubt it. NHC seems to believe Rita may struggle to even become a major in the gulf.

[Mac]

Uh, probably been asked before, but what is the significance of an annular hurricane??

Annular hurricanes have a donut-like appearance, with a very large eye in relation to the total wind field. They only occur when hurricanes are in the most optimal of conditions. Once annular, they are able to achieve and maintain extreme intensities for extended periods of time, and they are less likely to undergo eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) as frequently.

In non-annular hurricanes, ERCs take place from time to time as the inner eye tightens up until it can no longer support the wind field. A second eyewall will constrict around the inner eyewall. As the inner eyewall deteriorates, the second eyewall will take over. For a period of time, this will cause a hurricane to weaken--or simply maintain its current intensity. But as the new eyewall begins to constrict, winds in the hurricane will typically increase.

ERCs are part of the life cycle of a hurricane, and, depending upon when they occur, they can make a huge difference on landfall intensity. But in annular hurricanes, this doesn't happen as frequently. It can take a very long time for the inner eyewall to become so contricted that it cannot support the wind field any longer. Therefore, the storm is able to strengthen, and strengthen, and strengthen.

But as I said in my previous post, while it is possible that Rita will eventually go annular, she will not likely be in favorable conditions for this to occur for at least the next couple of days--if at all.

[InimanaChoogamaga]

The NHC seems perplexed as to what Rita's strength will be. But they have mentioned that Rita will be a rather large hurricane. A Katrina sized Cat 2 or 3 will still be a very bad situation for the Texas Coast.

[EverythingIsEverything]

well she is having a hard time making hurricane strength, and alot of folks on here thought she would have been already.

[Steve Cosby]

It's possible, but annular hurricanes are rather rare.

Katrina was annular, wasn't she?

[skysummit]

It's possible, but annular hurricanes are rather rare.

Katrina was annular, wasn't she?

Yes she was.

[Pebbles]

OK lets all take a deep breath.... *huggies*... there is no way to predict annular hurricanes that I know of yet. It is rare. Most major hurricanes DO NOT become annular. Many a times a hurricane will be cat 4 and not be an annular hurricane. That is why the rare times you see one it is a good indicator of how potentially devistating they can be.

[Mac]

It's possible, but annular hurricanes are rather rare.

Katrina was annular, wasn't she?

You know, I really don't want to start a huge argument over this topic but I'm not so sure Katrina was "truly" annular.

Yes, she had a very large eye. But she also had a very large wind field. And I think there is more to a hurricane being annular than just the donut-like appearance. I think that the formation of the large eye is just the first piece of the puzzle. After the large eye forms, then the hurricane has to go through a stabilization phase. Once the hurricane becomes more stabilized--with extreme winds surrounding the entire hurricane--it then becomes annular.

In my personal opinion, Katrina was in the process of becoming annular. She had the large eye, but as she was trying to stabilize herself she started running into conditions which were unfavorable for her to finish the job--land interaction, dry air, etc. The fact that she was apparently going through an ERC as she made landfall leads me to believe that she never quite reached annular status.

[Steve Cosby]

You know, I really don't want to start a huge argument over this topic but I'm not so sure Katrina was "truly" annular.

Well, without trying to light the kindling of the "Hate JB fire", Bastardi called it an annular hurricane also.

My original point, which was unstated, is that they may be becoming less rare.

[Mac]

You know, I really don't want to start a huge argument over this topic but I'm not so sure Katrina was "truly" annular.

Well, without trying to light the kindling of the "Hate JB fire", Bastardi called it an annular hurricane also.

My original point, which was unstated, is that they may be becoming less rare.

Well, in the end, Bastardi's opinion really doesn't matter any more than mine. Researchers will later determine whether Katrina ever became annular.

I would still say that annular hurricanes are a rare occurence. The only reason that we are seeing more of them over the past few years is because we are seeing more intense hurricanes. But in order to say that annular hurricanes are less rare, you'd have to factor in more than the past few years. You'd have to look at the trends over the decades. Only the future will tell us for sure. If the trend towards intense hurricanes continues in the decades to come, then, yes, annular hurricanes will undoubtedly become more common. But that remains to be seen.

[canegrl04]

From what I here,they expect Rita to be a cat 4.That tells you about the conditions that lie ahead of her in the GOM.Hold on.Rita's in for some serious bombing soon

[mf_dolphin]

Actually the NHC seems to be backing off the intensity forecast a little to me.

[skysummit]

I agree she reaches Cat 4, but not 5. If she does touch 156mph, it won't be for long IMO.