Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Deb321]

Just watching the mid-level radar returns...there are couple of things to note.

1. The mid-level signature looks to be ellipitical shaped so far.

2. The northern extent of the center has made a little poleward progress in the last couple of hours.

Looks like the upper keys are going to get an outer band in the next hour or so. This bad weather should begin to propogate northward along the coast by 3AM EDT.

MW

We have had an outer band here in Port St Lucie since about 12:45 nothing like what they will have in the keys and Miami but I find in amazing this far north.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA MOVING FASTER...BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND FROM GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST
SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE ON THE
SOUTHWEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA. A
HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AS
WELL AS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND PINAR DEL
RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS
NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...RITA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[ericinmia]

Did Franklin not get the recon???

Was he out eating lunch, fishing, etc? lol
-Eric

[THead]

Jeez, 17 mph now

[Bocadude85]

Just recorded a wind gust to 39 mph here in Boca Raton

[artist]

Mike - what would that mean - the poleward movement? think it will keep up?

[mtm4319]

Sheesh. This is one of the best-looking TS's I've ever seen.

[artist]

according to the latest vortex she is now a hurricane - see the recon thread about 2 pages back.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

He maybe waiting for more data or something was fishy?

[Dmetal81]

Starting to get into tropical strom conditions in the keys. That band coming through is fairly intense. While we wait for the satellites to resume transmission


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
127 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

FLZ076>078-200630-
MONROE LOWER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS-
127 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

.NOW...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE KEYS. THROUGH 230 AM...HEAVY RAINBANDS...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL APPROACH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EAST. THESE RAINBANDS WILL BRING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLINDING DOWNPOURS...AND OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. MOVEMENT OF THESE SQUALLS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&
HERE ARE THE PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND THE KEYS AND AT THE REEF OVER
THE PAST HOUR...
30 MPH AT MARATHON AIRPORT...
32 MPH AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
46 MPH AT MOLASSES REEF LIGHT...
37 MPH AT LONG KEY LIGHT...
40 MPH AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...
32 MPH AT SAND KEY LIGHT...
AND 33 MPH AT DRY TORTUGAS LIGHT.

$$

L. KASPER

[Dmetal81]

Mike - what would that mean - the poleward movement? think it will keep up?

He means north/south movement of the center, although as it becomes more distinct on radar there seems to be a slight northerly component to its march. And as per the NHC wnw at 17...

[oneness]

The core of the storm still lacks the long, fast moving yellow and red arcs which should be showing there, if it were almost or actually a hurricane. Seems it's going to need to drop a few MB of pressure in order to get past TS. Still a long way out so may not be showing properly though.

[artist]

thanks Dmeta!l

[audioslave8]

if she stays at this speed or any faster this will inhibit her from strengthening real fast then she will only be a cat 1 possibly when she goes over the keys especially that the core of the storm is not that impressive yet in my opinion she looks more like ophelia kinda longated not a real circular storm that tells me there is some shear and she might be moving too fast so this is some good news but if she decides to slow down and the shear decreases just a little more then thats a different story i still think the storm will be no katrina her core looked more impressive when she was on land in southern florida than rita does now

[Dmetal81]

blackout is over, rita still looking impressive... but still looks like shes trying to organize.... http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[superfly]

Looks like dry air has been entrained.

[oneness]

It looks like that, but there isn't any close by. Certainly not showing rapid intensification though. Mabe it's because there is not much inflow banding over water from the south.

[audioslave8]

i believe your right on that superfly some dry air a little shear and moving 17mph is not helping some rapid development it could be doing at this point all those factors are making it hard on the eyewall to get more organized or replacement cycle to finish

[superfly]

It looks like that, but there isn't any close by. Certainly not showing rapid intensification though. Mabe it's because there is not much inflow banding over water from the south.

That picture is old.

[oneness]

The image auto updates and is showing moisture though.