Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

chrisnnavarre · #681 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:11 pm

jpigott wrote:chrisnnavarre - what makes you think this will make landfall in South Florida and not the Keys

Four Words....

Rapid Deepening, Poleward Motion

FlSteel · #682 Postby **FlSteel** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:11 pm

chrisnnavarre: from looking at the last visibles today, and the latest IR I see no indication that this is going NW into mainland Fl. If anything Rita looks like she is tracking just south of the NHC projected track yet in the following the predicted direction.

Brent: I agree, this storm looks like its beginning to really get cranked up

Lifesgud2 · #683 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:15 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:
jpigott wrote:chrisnnavarre - what makes you think this will make landfall in South Florida and not the Keys

Four Words....

Rapid Deepening, Poleward Motion

Stop freaking people out. Rita will head 50 or so miles SOUTH of Key West. No where near South Florida (Dade or Broward County) The core or center...

Rainband · #684 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:16 pm

Wouldn't Rapid deepening pump more heat into the ridge and strengthen it??

chrisnnavarre · #685 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:16 pm

FlSteel wrote:chrisnnavarre: from looking at the last visibles today, and the latest IR I see no indication that this is going NW into mainland Fl. If anything Rita looks like she is tracking just south of the NHC projected track yet in the following the predicted direction.

Brent: I agree, this storm looks like its beginning to really get cranked up

Hey I'm just an Amateur...but I did sleep in a Holiday Inn Express Last Night.

:lol:

P.S.

I hope I'm wrong....

:cry:

cindysilver4 · #686 Postby **cindysilver4** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:17 pm

I don't know if this would be a good place to ask, but since maybe you all would know...

Last year, after the four hurricanes hit Florida, I found this really cool website where it showed the radar imagery in motion of all those canes peeling off the coast of africa and hitting the USA, one after another... It was like the weather-channel radar in motion, but for several months all strung together. I was looking for it again, and I can't find it!

This season has been even crazier, I'd love to see that sort of radar-string again, for 2005 this time. Do any of you know of a place that has that ?

Thanks~!

Cindy

Jagno · #687 Postby **Jagno** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:17 pm

vaffie wrote:Do you guys realize that, according to this website that predicts hurricane damage, even if Rita hit just to the west of Houston as a Category 3 storm, as NHC currently predicts, Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana, where Lake Charles is, would still have 20 million dollars worth of wind damage!

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

Since this is exactly where I am located......the southwestern most part.....this post scares the hell out of me :eek:

Jagno · #688 Postby **Jagno** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:18 pm

vaffie wrote:Do you guys realize that, according to this website that predicts hurricane damage, even if Rita hit just to the west of Houston as a Category 3 storm, as NHC currently predicts, Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana, where Lake Charles is, would still have 20 million dollars worth of wind damage!

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

Since this is exactly where I am located......the southwestern most part.....this post scares the hell out of me :eek:

WindRunner · #689 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:20 pm

For all those who said "I can't wait for the next Dvorak numbers to come out, it's looking great!", here they are, unchanged:

19/2345 UTC 23.1N 77.0W T4.0/4.0 RITA -- Atlantic Ocean

vaffie · #690 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:26 pm

Jagno wrote:
vaffie wrote:Do you guys realize that, according to this website that predicts hurricane damage, even if Rita hit just to the west of Houston as a Category 3 storm, as NHC currently predicts, Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana, where Lake Charles is, would still have 20 million dollars worth of wind damage!

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

Since this is exactly where I am located......the southwestern most part.....this post scares the hell out of me

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to scare you. Hey, Houston is pegged by that computer model to get 23 billion dollars of damage. So, hey, it could have been worse.

If that's any consolation whatsoever. But I guess it's probably not, because a quarter million Louisianans are somewhere in the Houston-Galveston area right now anyway....--in a big way, if this were to hit Texas, it would be hitting a big fraction of Louisiana's population for the second time ... :eek:

Typhoon_Willie · #691 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:47 pm

Looks like Rita's center is just coming into view on Miami's Long range radar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

#692 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:51 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:The stronger the storm gets the more poleward it moves....

Anywhere on the mainland of Florida is going to slow it and other influences will take over.

Before it's over this storm is going, I think to the Mississippi/Alabama border if not more to the north and east.

It's been since the 1950's (someone posted) since a major storm has hit Texas in September.

I'd be willing to bet models will adjust once this storm makes initial landfall.

Hate to say it but that is an overgeneralization of some very complex physics. In order for this to go anywhere near AL it'd have to plow through a pretty stout ridge. Don't see that happening.

#693 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:14 pm

Guidance expects due N movement when the ridge moves or breaks down.

dwg71 · #694 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 pm

iwould expect them to start trending south, she seems south of everyone right now.

We should get a recon fix soon. She has been on or slightly above/below 23N all day. I think last recon had her at 22.9N.

#695 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:18 pm

boy is Rita getting blowing up tonight. Unbelievable. There's a huge blowup of cold cloud tops over the center. I think soon the pressure is going to drop like a rock :eek:

#696 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:37 pm

The long range NWS Miami radar is showing an eye like feature just SSE of Andros but it appears to be wobbling NW. Can anybody confirm this? :eek:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

#697 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:39 pm

from jeff masters blog tonight

The latest UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimate puts Rita as a 80 mph hurricane with a 982 mb central pressure. Radar imagery from Camaguey, Cuba shows a partially formed elliptical eyewall, open to the north.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=128&tstamp=200509#commenttop

hicksta · #698 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:The long range NWS Miami radar is showing an eye like feature just SSE of Andros but it appears to be wobbling NW. Can anybody confirm this?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Might be your view. Storms also tend to stair step

#699 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:42 pm

boca_chris wrote:The long range NWS Miami radar is showing an eye like feature just SSE of Andros but it appears to be wobbling NW. Can anybody confirm this?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

The feature is moving nw, but it does not look right. The storm is clearly west. 265-280. If that is the eye and it is indeed moving nw, watch out.

Scorpion · #700 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:42 pm

Thats not the eye I dont think.

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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