Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[jkt21787]

GFDL shifts even further west (pink line)--now coming in well SW of Houston. Hit refresh if the GFDL time doesn't show 2328Z.

Good sign for our LA folks though the fact its one run and one model shouldn't comfort folks there yet.

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm, they have shifted further south. I'm sure they will continue to shift south/north over the next 2 days...just keep her away from LA please.

[BamaMan]

Still a long way to go on this one PTrackerLA
We all need to watch closely for the next 3-4 days

[BayouVenteux]

GFDL shifts even further west (pink line)--now coming in well SW of Houston. Hit refresh if the GFDL time doesn't show 2328Z.

Good sign for our LA folks though the fact its one run and one model shouldn't comfort folks there yet.

Actually, I think that's a two-run consecutive westward shift since the S. Central Louisiana landfall GFDL run this morning. The trend at the moment is running west.

[mahmoo]

Hmm, they have shifted further south. I'm sure they will continue to shift south/north over the next 2 days...just keep her away from LA please.

Got my fingers, arms & legs crossed

[jkt21787]

GFDL shifts even further west (pink line)--now coming in well SW of Houston. Hit refresh if the GFDL time doesn't show 2328Z.

Good sign for our LA folks though the fact its one run and one model shouldn't comfort folks there yet.

Actually, I think that's a two-run consecutive westward shift since the S. Central Louisiana landfall GFDL run this morning. The trend at the moment is running west.

Perhaps it is. I was away from any access to information all day, including this morning. Thanks for the info.

[hicksta]

Pretty sure that it shifted N then S. Probably will go a little more North in the next run

[vaffie]

Do you guys realize that, according to this website that predicts hurricane damage, even if Rita hit just to the west of Houston as a Category 3 storm, as NHC currently predicts, Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana, where Lake Charles is, would still have 20 million dollars worth of wind damage!

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

[jrod]

If this were to make a direct hit in New Orleans the damage would likely be worse than they saw for Katrina. A strong cat 3 making a direct hit there would do a lot more than destroy 2 levees.

[WeatherEmperor]

Do you guys realize that, according to this website that predicts hurricane damage, even if Rita hit just to the west of Houston as a Category 3 storm, as NHC currently predicts, Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana, where Lake Charles is, would still have 20 million dollars worth of wind damage!

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL ... terep.html

yeah but look at the estimated total damage. Over $32.5 billion.

<RICKY>

[JamesFromMaine2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... RGB/20.jpg is that a eye forming to the left of the deep convection?

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg is that a eye forming to the left of the deep convection?

That is west of the center...

[Ivanhater]

gfs moves north texas lousiana border now

[WindRunner]

00Z runs.

WHXX01 KWBC 200003
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM RITA (AL182005) ON 20050920 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050920 0000 050920 1200 050921 0000 050921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.1N 77.0W 23.6N 79.3W 24.2N 81.7W 24.8N 83.9W
BAMM 23.1N 77.0W 23.6N 79.2W 24.2N 81.2W 24.8N 83.5W
A98E 23.1N 77.0W 23.7N 79.3W 24.3N 81.5W 24.9N 83.4W
LBAR 23.1N 77.0W 23.7N 79.5W 24.5N 81.8W 25.1N 84.0W
SHIP 60KTS 71KTS 82KTS 90KTS
DSHP 60KTS 71KTS 82KTS 90KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050922 0000 050923 0000 050924 0000 050925 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.5N 85.9W 26.9N 89.7W 29.5N 93.9W 34.3N 95.3W
BAMM 25.6N 85.6W 26.8N 90.5W 27.9N 95.0W 30.2N 95.1W
A98E 25.6N 85.1W 27.1N 88.1W 30.3N 91.6W 35.0N 92.4W
LBAR 25.6N 85.9W 26.7N 88.8W 28.9N 92.0W 32.3N 93.0W
SHIP 96KTS 102KTS 98KTS 87KTS
DSHP 96KTS 102KTS 98KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.1N LONCUR = 77.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 74.6W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.5N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 105NM

[chrisnnavarre]

The stronger the storm gets the more poleward it moves....

Anywhere on the mainland of Florida is going to slow it and other influences will take over.

Before it's over this storm is going, I think to the Mississippi/Alabama border if not more to the north and east.

It's been since the 1950's (someone posted) since a major storm has hit Texas in September.

I'd be willing to bet models will adjust once this storm makes initial landfall.

[PTrackerLA]

The stronger the storm gets the more poleward it moves....

Anywhere on the mainland of Florida is going to slow it and other influences will take over.

Before it's over this storm is going, I think to the Mississippi/Alabama border if not more to the north and east.

It's been since the 1950's (someone posted) since a major storm has hit Texas in September.

I'd be willing to bet models will adjust once this storm makes initial landfall.

It's the fact that a major hitting Texas this time of year is so rare that makes me sick. With the GFS shifting north again I'm afraid we could be in serious trouble.

[truballer#1]

DEEPENING

[chrisnnavarre]

DEEPENING

No Kidding....Right Full Rudder....

NorthWest and into South Florida by tomorrow P.M.

[Brent]

RAPID deepening.

I'm expecting recon to find a hurricane... at least that the pressure has fallen to sub-990, maybe lower(winds usually respond afterwards).

[jpigott]

chrisnnavarre - what makes you think this will make landfall in South Florida and not the Keys