Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#481 Postby **Windy** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:53 pm

rockyman wrote:AFM...you're right...the GFDL is back to Houston:

I'm not sure what track you're looking at (The NHC track?) but the 12Z GFDL sure isn't pointing at Houston.

*edit* Doh! And then it updates on me and makes me wrong! :lol:

Website · #482 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 12:55 pm

Windy wrote:I'm not sure what track you're looking at (The NHC track?) but the 12Z GFDL sure isn't pointing at Houston.

The 18z GFDL does...

Website · #483 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:04 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...RITA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXUMAS AND FOR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND WESTWARD
TO EAST CAPE SABLE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO
DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
DEERFIELD BEACH FLORIDA SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH
NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO
CHOKOLOSKEE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. STORM TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N... 75.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

CocoCreek · #484 Postby **CocoCreek** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:04 pm

Bahamas radar loop...takes a little bit to load...it's probably getting a lot of hits...you can start to see the center coming into view...

http://bahamasweather.org.bs/radar/local/loop/

dwg71 · #485 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:08 pm

dwg71 wrote:Lets get a direction fix 11:00AM 23.0N 75.2W...1:00PM is ?

Update will be available soon.

23.1N 75.9W, thats .1N and .7W....Its heading almost due west maybe 275. most models have it heading WNW at this time. Maybe a trend back to the West and south is coming.

vaffie · #486 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:10 pm

Not good, not good. At least the center will miss Miami--wouldn't that be a disaster? A direct hit on Miami and then on Houston! One is bad enough. Nevertheless, Miami's gonna feel it, Key West is going to be rough, but then again, just a little farther south, and it would have been really bad for the folks in Havana. So all in all, for a terribly strong storm, one can say that, apart from going out to sea, it's going to directly affect the fewest people this round. Small consolation down the road, though.

southerngale · #487 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:15 pm

Well, I'm sure it will shift away from this area again. It's still 4-5 days out.

CYCLONE MIKE · #488 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:17 pm

What concerns me more than underestimating troughs strength or weakness is the fact that high pressure will sit around for that long of a time without weakening. We are five days out and I just don't see high pressure being entrenched in the south central US for that amount of time without moving or weakening. The modlels have shifted north a great deal since yesterday and I don't think have finished shifting either. These storms always seem to turn north sooner than later and it is just to far out for the models to lock on yet. Wait until late Tues or Wed. and see what they show. However that will also be almost too late for LA and MS if it does come this way.

leonardo · #489 Postby **leonardo** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:32 pm

12z ECMWF shifts north BIG time...

instead of showing a southern Texas/northeast Mexico landfall, it has shifted north to indicate a landfall around Galveston at around 120 hours.

you can find it at http://www.ecmwf.int/
click the "free access" link in the middle of the page and then find the North American maps

it appears to carve a deeper trough out as compared to the 00z run as the storm starts a turn west-northwest to northwestward at about 72 hours and the turn gradually grows sharper, coming into the area at around a 330 heading. the storm continues inland over the Dallas area and then northward through the midwest.

#490 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:42 pm

19/1745 UTC 23.0N 76.2W T4.0/4.0 RITA -- Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Rita according to SSD dvorak.

#491 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:42 pm

She surely looks like a hurricane right now.

#492 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:46 pm

she's intensify rapidly over the past couple of hours.

Historically, storms have bombed out repeatedly in her general vacinity.

I fear a major hurricane sooner than later. :eek:

Get out if you are in the FL Keys

Website · #493 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:47 pm

She looks like a VERY rapidly intensifying hurricane to me... I fully expect a major tomorrow as it passes near the Keys.

#494 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:47 pm

boca_chris wrote:she's intensify rapidly over the past couple of hours.

Historically, storms have bombed out repeatedly in her general vacinity.

I fear a major hurricane sooner than later.

Get out if you are in the FL Keys

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticLoop&prodnav=none
She is looking better, surprised they have not found lower pressures.

dwg71 · #495 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:47 pm

Until the ridge moves out, nothing is coming to Houston/Galveston. Its stifiling hot here and the high pressure is to be in control for 3 or 4 more days.

Lets look at this thing on Wednesday afternoon, we'll have a better idea at that time.

Dont panic just prepare.

tallywx · #496 Postby **tallywx** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:47 pm

no eye yet on Great Exuma radar (located just north of her circulation)

Okay banding from the south around the center, though.

Looks like the convection is slightly outrunning the center (perhaps some shear from the east?).

vaffie · #497 Postby **vaffie** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:54 pm

Is it wobbling to the south?

dwg71 · #498 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:58 pm

I noticed that as well. The ridge is there and it is not letting anybody in yet. Many were saying how the ridge was moving west, these models are having the ridge move out NE. If it doesnt move, Rita will go have ritas, if you know what I mean...

Time will tell..

But if it stays south below 24 and keeps forward speed, the models will shift southward towards tx mex border.

#499 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:02 pm

dwg71 wrote:I noticed that as well. The ridge is there and it is not letting anybody in yet. Many were saying how the ridge was moving west, these models are having the ridge move out NE. If it doesnt move, Rita will go have ritas, if you know what I mean...

Time will tell..

But if it stays south below 24 and keeps forward speed, the models will shift southward towards tx mex border.

Max Mayfield reported on WDSU, New Orleans, about 1 hour ago that the high is shifting west.

#500 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 2:03 pm

just looked at the 12z euro and WOW...if that pans out...galveston to dallas watch out....

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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