Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

#401 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:45 am

Yes it does. Mayfield said that it's all dependent upon that high pressure, and the shape of it. That's why he's said all morning that it's going to be a very close call for Miami-Dade county. Our CBS mets have showed a graphic all morning with 3 circles indicative of the wind fields. If Rita follows the middle of the track, hurricane force winds will stay out of most of the Keys, while they will get TS winds with 'cane gusts, and we'd have TS winds here in the southern half of Dade. However, if Rita follows the more northern edge of the cone, I'd be facing hurricane winds here....these northern jogs/whatever they are will make a HUGE difference for us down here. That's why I'm anxious to see the 11am advisory, especially after what Max just said.

#402 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:46 am

cjrciadt wrote:Going to need a couple of Katrinarita's to make it through the next week.

#403 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:47 am

The last satellite update I'm getting is 1315utc. Are they having problems again? The GOES E-CONUS was updating every 7-10 minutes or so.

tampastorm · #404 Postby **tampastorm** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:49 am

Agreed also see high sliding west, interesting to say the least.

#405 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:49 am

skysummit wrote:The last satellite update I'm getting is 1315utc. Are they having problems again? The GOES E-CONUS was updating every 7-10 minutes or so.

really? can i have a link to your satellite site?

<RICKY>

jpigott · #406 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:50 am

high sliding west = bad for SFLA

#407 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:51 am

Report from the Carnival Glory, in the Carib somewhere SE of The Turks & Caicos.

Thanks everyone for the updates, advice and sat links. Things have calmed down somwhat but we are still in Force 8, Gale winds and seas are 7-12.5 ft. I finally found a realtime map and PC that gives constant weather conditions from the bridge.

At 5:30 am this morning, winds across the deck were reported at 45 knots. At 4:30 I could no longer open my balcony door (due to wind) and by 5:30, we were in white out rain conditions. Now that it's daylight (but zero sun) we can see the bridge cameras and the rolling seas. Many people left the upper decks during the night and are still sleeping around on the couches and chairs in the lower deck lounges.

The crew keeps assuring us that we are going to get though this, but I can't imagine that conditions will be good enough in St Thomas/St Marten tomorrow and Wednesday for snorkeling or swimming due to seas from Philippe. Many are angry that the captain opted to sail this route since the NHC clearly predicted this would be somewhere in our path days before we left.

Anyway, sorry if I repeated myself, but it's been a very long sleepless night. Will post again when I can, but most important --- those of you in S Florida and the Gulf -- heed the warnings and best of luck to you!

SBrz

#408 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:51 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
skysummit wrote:The last satellite update I'm getting is 1315utc. Are they having problems again? The GOES E-CONUS was updating every 7-10 minutes or so.

really? can i have a link to your satellite site?

<RICKY>

Nevermind...it's updating again.

Ricky, I use the program GHCCSat. It downloads the data from here http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html It's the exact same data, it just updates automatically and has full screen.

#409 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:51 am

jpigott wrote:high sliding west = bad for SFLA

Lets confirm what this could mean for SFLA.

#410 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:52 am

high sliding west = bad for SFLA

Explain please

#411 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:53 am

thank you skysummit

<RICKY>

#412 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:56 am

I see Rita and Philippe, but what is in the middle? 97L??????????? :eek:

x-y-no · #413 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:57 am

SeaBrz_FL wrote:Report from the Carnival Glory, in the Carib somewhere SE of The Turks & Caicos.

...

The crew keeps assuring us that we are going to get though this, but I can't imagine that conditions will be good enough in St Thomas/St Marten tomorrow and Wednesday for snorkeling or swimming due to seas from Philippe. Many are angry that the captain opted to sail this route since the NHC clearly predicted this would be somewhere in our path days before we left.

SBrz

Wow ... I'm truly amazed they took that course. It's not like this development was so quick or so unpredictable as to be unavoidable.

I'd be pretty upset at the captain myself.

#414 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 8:59 am

tracyswfla wrote:
jpigott wrote:high sliding west = bad for SFLA

Lets confirm what this could mean for SFLA.

If I'm not mistaken, it's the high that's supposed to keep Rita to our south. If the high is retreating to the west, that means she can move further north, thereby increasing the potential for landfall in the northern Keys/Dade/etc.

jpigott · #415 Postby **jpigott** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:01 am

if the high is sliding west, which is the forcing/steering mechanism which is supposed to turn Rita due west later today, then that due west turn may not happen until later, thus more of a northerly component to Rita, thus putting SFLA a little more under the gun

#416 Postby **tracyswfla** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:02 am

Ok, we need to get solid confirmation that the high is sliding west. How can we do that.

#417 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:06 am

Ok, we need to get solid confirmation that the high is sliding west. How can we do that.

I don't see it.

#418 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:06 am

Noon model runs.

LaBreeze · #419 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:07 am

If the high is sliding west, what impact does that have on the forecasted track of Rita? Does she stay on a westbound track or will there be a weakness to the east of the high?

milankovitch · #420 Postby **milankovitch** » Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:08 am

cjrciadt wrote:
I see Rita and Philippe, but what is in the middle? 97L???????????

No I believe that is the little spek of 850vort on this map just east of PR.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

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