Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[hicksta]

Ron

MM5 is run on diffrent resolutions

[skufful]

-" I don't think the northern Gulf Coast is out of the woods on this one yet?"

I don't think that Bermuda is out of the woods yet with the way the models handle storms while they are in the Atlantic. (Bermuda, a little tongue and cheek) They seem to handle storms much better once they get into the gulf.

[SkeetoBite]

Media's getting bored with Katrina... can you tell?

Yeah. Geraldo is the guy who leans into a 30mph wind with his head cocked all crooked and yelling into the microphone to overstate the windspeeds and conditions, while right down the same beach, Jim Cantore is standing tall with a rain jacket on telling it like it is. Incredibly sad.

[Brent]

From NWS Miami:

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.

[ronjon]

Ron

MM5 is run on diffrent resolutions

I know its experimental and a meso-scale model. The point being that it does have a trough erode away the ridge enough to turn the storm. I'm not sure I buy it now, but the pattern is evolving and we'll have to see if the ridge holds or erodes.

[gatorcane]

latest SHIPS models forecasting a CAT 2 hurricane approaching S. Florida and FL Keys....

[Canelaw99]

From NWS Miami:

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.

[gatorcane]

[fci]

Miami Forecast Discussion says that Warnings will go up for the Watch area in SE FL (TS Warnings and Hurricane Watch, I presume.. at least the TS Warning part).
Also, TS Watch will extend North; presumably to Jupiter.

[jkt21787]

From NWS Miami:

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.

Hurricane Warnings in SE FL or Tropical Storm Warnings? Could have been specific with that...

[Brent]

From NWS Miami:

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.

Hurricane Warnings in SE FL or Tropical Storm Warnings? Could have been specific with that...

We'll know shortly... I'm guessing a Hurricane Watch and a TS Warning and then maybe an upgrade in the morning if needed? The slower motion will give them more time.

[JPmia]

From NWS Miami:

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MARINE AND PUBLIC ZONES AS
WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS ALONG THE SE CST AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED N OF DEERFIELD BEACH.

Hurricane Warnings in SE FL or Tropical Storm Warnings? Could have been specific with that...

I think they are referring to upgrading the existing TS Watches for Miami/FLL to TS Warnings and extending the TS Watches up north. The question is will there also be a H Watch along with that TS Warning in SE FL Peninsula.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 295
MILES... 480 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
THE NEXT A 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...RITA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM... MAINLY NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...22.9 N... 73.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
0300Z MON SEP 19 2005

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL
RIO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
EXCLUDING GRAND BAHAMA AND ABACO ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 73.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.4N 75.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.1N 77.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.3N 80.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 24.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.1N 88.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 85SE 85SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.5N 92.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 73.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[Windy]

[recmod]

Ok...after recon earlier found 67 knot flight-level winds....why does the 11pm advisory not increase the winds at all from 50 mph???? Didn't that support at least 60 mph surface winds???

Confused and exhausted once again...

--Lou

[Brent]

Major Hurricane by 72 hours...

[Jono]

[Andrew92]

I don't like this one bit....

-Andrew92

[Swimdude]

Houston sitting proudly in the cone at the moment... Major in 72 hours; that's scary, but realistic.