Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5
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Windtalker1
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. My take on the direction of Rita...............If you look at the larger scale of the Water Vapor Loop, you will see that the High just off the Coast of Georgia is beginning to retreat alittle North. This is why I think we are getting a more NW movement at this time. (look at the moisture forming off the Georgia Coast...the High is losing it's grip) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html This will only be Temporary but until then, how far North will she go. Will she get as Far North as the Central Bahamas? If she does, Hurricane Warnings are sure to go up for Miami Dade up through Palm Beach County. I feel she will cross through Broward County as a Cat 1 Storm almost like Katrina did but head straight West without the SW movement like Katrina did. Just my opinion.
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Brent wrote:jrod wrote:Ive flipped flop all night on where this storm will go. But looking at the WV loop, the storm should eventually go on a W or even WSW track eventually. That is if the flow remains the same for the next few days.
LOL... I thought up til about 3 hours ago it would miss the Keys and maybe even landfall in Cuba, now I'm wondering if it might be north of Miami...
I thought the same thing. When you look at water vapor, it seems pretty evident that Rita will have to bend back west or west-southwest soon, but any reformation of the center and more NW movement are definately critical for South Florida.
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jschlitz wrote:BAMM may not be good to use, however, I do look for others to trend more northward. Doubt LA has anything to worry about, but very worried here in SE TX.
I would worry a little no matter where you are on the Gulf coast right now. Model error that far out is pretty large. The models for Katrina were all very unanimous 4 days out for a Pensacola hit. We know how that turned out.
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milankovitch
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00Z Models in
[img]http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
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[img]http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
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Last edited by milankovitch on Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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superfly
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milankovitch
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GFDL has a cat3/cat4 hitting a little south of Galvestong around Freeport-ish.
Here is the intensity forecast some difficulty posting this wouldn't work.
Here is the intensity forecast some difficulty posting this wouldn't work.
Last edited by milankovitch on Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:16 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Brent
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skysummit wrote:Brent wrote:Fox News has woken up...
"National Hurricane Center: New Orleans may be hit by TS Rita"
Do you have a link to this?
No I don't, but it was on the lower-thirds on TV about 15 minutes ago. Max Mayfield was on and said there was a chance, but it was small(usual 5-day errors, etc.).
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SkeetoBite
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Brent wrote:Fox News has woken up...
"National Hurricane Center: New Orleans may be hit by TS Rita"
Max Mayfield did not say that Rita 2005 may hit New Orleans. I was shocked to see the banner and hear Geraldo say this. Max Mayfield said "There is a possibility that this storm may strike anywhere from northern Mexico to the Louisiana/Texas border area", he then pointed out the extent of the 5 day cone. JB then came on and said essentially the same thing Max Mayfield said.
Media hype is irresponsible and needlessly stirs people up. Be careful when you hear statements from FOX or any other news outlet.
A note for casual users of these forums: Seek official data and updates at the National Hurricane Center.
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skysummit wrote:boca_chris wrote:it's nearing October. Highs don't last that long. We are not in August.
I know that, but do you see something dropping down to degrade this high?
Yeah, the 12Z FSUmm5. It initializes the storm too far south like the rest of the globals, but what is real interesting is that after about 4 days, it gets picked up by a trough diving down through the center of the US and turns the storm northward in the south-central GOM - I don't think the northern Gulf Coast is out of the woods on this one yet?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation
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Brent
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SkeetoBite wrote:Brent wrote:Fox News has woken up...
"National Hurricane Center: New Orleans may be hit by TS Rita"
Max Mayfield did not say that Rita 2005 may hit New Orleans. I was shocked to see the banner and hear Geraldo say this. Max Mayfield said "There is a possibility that this storm may strike anywhere from northern Mexico to the Louisiana/Texas border area", he then pointed out the extent of the 5 day cone. JB then came on and said essentially the same thing Max Mayfield said.
Media hype is irresponsible and needlessly stirs people up. Be careful when you hear statements from FOX or any other news outlet.
A note for casual users of these forums: Seek official data and updates at the National Hurricane Center.
Media's getting bored with Katrina... can you tell?
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