Hurricane Rita - Cat. 5

[Brent]

How come the SHIP and DSHP weakens Rita after 72 hours after it reaches 100KT?

Land?

[gatorcane]

what's the link for this map?

[truballer#1]

[hicksta]

Bam are very bad when it comes to tropics

[Canelaw99]

I know y'all say the BAMs are not good models, but it's very disconcerting to see the latest runs of them - it puts the storm basically over my house. I know the initialization is better with these which is what concerns me. Am I wrong in figuring the others will follow suit and scoot north or no?

[vaffie]

Recon has the left the building...er I mean storm...

Here were their findings on the way out...

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

67kt.........what's that equal at the surface? That seems like quite an increase.

anyone?

In general to convert knots to mph you would multiply by 1.15...then multiply be either .8 or .9 to get surface winds...

In other words, 67kt at flight level ~~67mph give or take at the surface

[Stratosphere747]

*Bangs head against wall*

A98 and LBAR are "comic relief" models.

BAMM will be south into Mexico Monday morning and back into La Monday night...

[THead]

Recon has the left the building...er I mean storm...

Here were their findings on the way out...

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

67kt.........what's that equal at the surface? That seems like quite an increase.

anyone?

In general to convert knots to mph you would multiply by 1.15...then multiply be either .8 or .9 to get surface winds...

In other words, 67kt at flight level ~~67mph give or take at the surface

Quite a jump from the 50mph 8pm advisory winds........

[truballer#1]

shows damage forcast and other stuff

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/map ... zoomsize=2[/img]

[gatorcane]

Also note the movement at the 8pm advisory. NW not W....interesting...with the center relocating farther north I can't help but think that S. Florida is more at risk now.

[jrod]

Im thinking all the models are going to shift north with Rita's jog to the north between the 5pm and 8pm advisories. If that trend continues, tommorow morning watches and warning will be extended further north in Florida.

The weather here is great, it is crystal clear tonight and all the stars are out. Just as it was before Jeanne and Francis got here last year. This concerns me. I think Rita has the potential to be a 100mph hurricane before reacing Florida and more if it goes for whatever reason it spends more time over the hot water such as taking a more north westarly track.

My barometer is marked so I can see if we get the pressure fall and tommorow I will be keeping a close eye on the winds(especially direction Easterly mean the storm will stay south, North winds mean we are gonna get a direct hit) and the wildlife activity. I just think this storm will make it further north than is forecasted even though there is a lot of reasons why it should go due west.

Hopefully if we get a warning my classes will be canceled so I have time to prepare if necessary. Now all I can do is watch and be aware of what Rita is doing. By the end of tommorow I should have a good idea of what to expect with this one.

[Blown Away]

[quote="ronjon"]The dynamic models have definitely shifted to the north and east from their 18Z runs. The LBAR and now the NHCA98E are running up the east coast of FL and the BAM M & D have shifted toward the south tip of the peninsula (probably mainly due to better intialization) - their tracks have been pretty consistent W-NW. I realize the global models tend to have a better track record but its definitely a trend with this group of models - be interesting to see what the next run of the globals with the more accurate intial conditions & upgraded strength come up with. The more rapid intensification of this storm, the more likely it will move NW since their is still a weakness in the ridge off the east coast of FL that won't be filled for another 24 hours or so.

I'm use to the models flopping, however in situation the models seem to have a slam dunk, with Rita at least moving S of Fl peninsula. With such a strong ridge expected how could some of the models (LBAR & NHCA98E)start going up the FL E coast all of a sudden?? How could they not see the ridge?

[recmod]

At the risk of looking totally ignorant.....I will ask this question.

If the BAMM model is so bad at forecasting tropical systems.......WHY is it used??????????????


--Lou

[WindRunner]

Recon has the left the building...er I mean storm...

Here were their findings on the way out...

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

67kt.........what's that equal at the surface? That seems like quite an increase.

anyone?

In general to convert knots to mph you would multiply by 1.15...then multiply be either .8 or .9 to get surface winds...

In other words, 67kt at flight level ~~67mph give or take at the surface

Quite a jump from the 50mph 8pm advisory winds........

Or so you would think. That 67kt wind was recorded at 7:30.

[Bgator]

The BAMD did very well on Katrina, they all have ther moments!

[SamSagnella]

Someone posted a graphic somewhere on the TT forum earlier today that was an intensity forecast graph with all of the model's intensity predictions plotted onto one image. Can someone re-post this image and its link? Thanks.

[gatorcane]

Rita is looking very good this evening and has shown rapid organization since the 5pm advisory. In addition recon calculated a NW movement and a center that has relocated farther north.

The situation continues to become more dire for South Florida and the FL Keys...

[jkt21787]

Rita is looking very good this evening and has shown rapid organization since the 5pm advisory. In addition recon calculated a NW movement and a center that has relocated farther north.

The situation continues to become more dire for South Florida and the FL Keys...

The NW movement was actually based on the relocation.

It will go back to WNW and eventually W once the relocation of the LLC is complete, probably later tonight.

[hurricanedude]

one other thing, its a fairly large storm, so a strike on S FL...and about all the peninsula gets a taste...so everyone in FL needs to watch this thing

[Rainband]

I agree, the water vapor shows what the NHC is thinking