Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge

[ROCK]

I think this afternoons AFD will a little more different. I think we will see more concern in their discussion regarding TD18.

I agree. HOU/GAL AFD has been so conservative when it comes to the tropics IMO.

[gboudx]

FWD is a VERY good NWS office...I really like them since I have moved here.....They have been saying the ridge should weaken here in about 4 days or so...

We can only hope it weakens, selfishly speaking. I'm sick and tired of this heat. And I'm sick and tired of record-setting electric bills.

[ROCK]

FWD is a VERY good NWS office...I really like them since I have moved here.....They have been saying the ridge should weaken here in about 4 days or so...

We can only hope it weakens, selfishly speaking. I'm sick and tired of this heat. And I'm sick and tired of record-setting electric bills.

hmm,,I think I would rather have electric bills than no electricity. I get your point, it has been crazy hot and dry here the last couple of weeks.

[hicksta]

FWD is a VERY good NWS office...I really like them since I have moved here.....They have been saying the ridge should weaken here in about 4 days or so...

We can only hope it weakens, selfishly speaking. I'm sick and tired of this heat. And I'm sick and tired of record-setting electric bills.

You do understand that if that happens, we might have a visitor

[Portastorm]

FWD is a VERY good NWS office...I really like them since I have moved here.....They have been saying the ridge should weaken here in about 4 days or so...

We can only hope it weakens, selfishly speaking. I'm sick and tired of this heat. And I'm sick and tired of record-setting electric bills.

You do understand that if that happens, we might have a visitor

If Rita hits SE Texas as a Cat 3 or 4 ... and you're sick of the heat now ... just wait until you don't have power for 3 weeks and then we'll see how you feel about the heat then!

[jeff]

TX is not safe from the potential impacts of TD 18. Please understand that it is very important to focus on the overall error cone and not the balck forecast line. Errors at 5-days can be very large.

[windsurfer77058]

Jeff, what are the chances of the Houston area being affected in your opinion?

[jeff]

Jeff, what are the chances of the Houston area being affected in your opinion?

The chances are roughly the same for the entire TX coast right now. I am not liking the latest model guidance showing a more northward trend and breaking down of the ridge over the state.

This one bears very close watch for those along the entire TX coast!

[southerngale]

I can't believe the Houston NWS doesn't even mention it. The Lake Charles NWS for Southwest Lousiana and extreme Southeast Texas at least talks about it.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2005

.NEW DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE SEASONABLE
LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON NORMS. CONTINUED STEADY CLIMB CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...FROM 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SEPTEMBER...WE WOULD EXPECT AROUND 12 DAYS WITH AN AFTERNOON
HIGH IN THE 90S. THUS FAR...LCH...AEX AND LFT HAVE REACHED THE 90S
EVERY DAY THIS MONTH...ARA AND BPT ALL BUT ONE. THIS TREND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT LEAST WELL INTO THE WEEK.

OTHERWISE...CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE ON TARGET. NO UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

MARCOTTE


SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
KLCH AT 18/00Z DID SHOW SOME DRYING AND WARMING IN THE
LAYERS BETWEEN 8H-5H AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. DESPITE THIS
RADAR DEPICTS AN OCCASIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18 IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEARING
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS MOVING TO THE WEST.

DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT AND DRY
TODAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TODAY.

LIMITED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

FORECAST IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK DEPENDS ON THE TRACK...SIZE AND
STRENGTH OF T.D. 18. RIGHT NOW GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WOULD STEER
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF.
THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS A CATEGORY
1 HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN GULF ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ABOUT
400 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON LOUISIANA HEADING WEST...WITH POSSIBLE
LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN OLD MEXICO COAST OR
EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

WITH THIS TRACK WILL MENTION ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM MAY SKIRT THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF HIGHER SEAS FROM
SWELLS AND HIGHER TIDES.

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. WITH
CURRENT TRACK...COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. WILL HAVE
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SEAS OUT TO 20 NM AROUND 4 FEET...
AND FROM 20 TO 60 NM SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET FOR THURSDAY...WHICH IS
THE LAST DAY FOR THE 18/0930Z COASTAL MARINE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

[Big_Steve]

Good afternoon from Katy, Texas which is near Houston where I've been since September 01, 2005 at a very nice Marriott Suites Hotel after having spent sometime at two hotels in south central Mississippi riding out Hurricane Katrina. I evacuated from my home in Biloxi, Mississippi on Sunday; August 28, 2005 and drove north approximately 80 miles from the coast to the town of Collins, Mississippi where I rode out Hurricane Katrina on Monday; August 29, 2005 at a Best Western Hotel.

I stayed at the hotel in Collins, Mississippi until Tuesday morning; August 30, 2005 when I decided to check out and move to another hotel in Magee, Mississippi; about 40 miles to the west where I had also made reservations before leaving Biloxi. I left the hotel in Collins, Mississippi because it had no power or running water.

Once I arrived in Magee, Mississippi later in the day on Tuesday; August 30th I checked into another hotel with no power but it did have plenty of ice cold water which I used to take many showers just to stay cool. While in Magee, Mississippi I had to drive north 50 miles on Wednesday; August 31, 2005 to buy gas and while I was north of Magee I was able to use my cell phone for the first time since the hurricane hit.

I was able to make several calls to relatives to let them know that we were all O.K. and I also made a call to some people in Texas and requested that they send the Texas Calvary for us; to come to Magee, Mississippi to rescue us which they did the next day and transported us to Katy, Texas where we still are today. I wake up today and turn on the T.V. and see that a TD is posing a threat to the Florida Keys and "might" enter the Gulf Of Mexico.

Some of the computer models are showing that this latest TD "might" come to Texas. Please say it ain't so. I hope to be able to go home to Biloxi, Mississippi soon but there are still some issues with the water quality in my neighborhood; there are shortages of bottled drinking water and long lines at the grocery stores. Could the part of Texas where I'm at right now be under the gun from this latest tropical threat which is taking aim today on the Florida Keys according to FOX Cable News?


Big Steve
Evacuee from Biloxi, MS
Present location is Katy, TX



End Of Message
09/18/05

[Portastorm]

Big Steve ... it is clear you are a hurricane magnet, judging from your travel journal. Please move to another state ... like Arkansas!



OK, seriously .. the short answer is: maybe. Anywhere along the Texas coast is in the potential "hit" zone right now. But its still 5 days away.

[wxmann_91]

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...KEEPING
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIP CHANCES NIL. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY TRICKY. TD #18 IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HISPANOLA AND IS PROGGED TO SLIDE TO THE WEST
AND UNDER THE H5 RIDGE. TPC FORECAST MOVES THE SYSTEM DUE WEST AND
DEVELOPS IT INTO A HURRICANE AFTER MOVING INTO THE GULF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CONTINUING TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY...TO
JUST SOUTH OF WESTERLY DIRECTION UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN GULF.
AT THIS TIME...THE GFS/UKMET ARE LIFTING THE STORM A BIT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH THIS STORM BEING A GOOD 5-7 DAYS
FROM LANDFALL...UNCERTAINTY OBVIOUSLY REMAINS QUITE HIGH. IF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY MORE THAN PROGS SUGGEST...THIS STORM WILL
MORE EASILY TURN TO THE NORTH. CONVERSELY...A STRONGER AND MORE
STUBBORN RIDGE WOULD HELP DRIVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND BROADBRUSH AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY. WILL SHOW BACKING OF THE WIND
FIELD TO AN EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...VEERING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WILL TOP WINDS OUT
AT 15-20 KNOTS FOR NOW AND WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS THE SCENARIO
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS 500 MILLIBAR RIDGING IN PLACE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS MAINTAINING DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE BRO CWA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE AND WILL INCLUDE SOME
ISOLD POPS AFTER TUESDAY. MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE
WARMER THAN MET TEMPS AND WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MAV TEMPS AS THESE
SEEM TO BE VERIFYING BETTER IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS AT
BRO...HRL AND MFE. WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGH WORDING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV AS THE RECORDS FOR
BRO...HRL AND MFE ARE 97...100 AND 100 RESPECTIVELY AND FORECAST
HIGHS FOR THESE CITIES WILL REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THESE
RECORDS. THE FORECAST SITUATION GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING IN
THE LONGER TERM WITH NHC ISSUING ADVISORIES ON T.D. EIGHTEEN. THE
LATEST PROGS FROM NHC KEEPS EIGHTEEN ON A GENERAL W/WNW TRACK INTO
THE GULF OF MEX LATER THIS WEEK UNDERNEATH THE STRONG 500 MILLIBAR
RIDGING THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE KEEPS ENTRENCHED OVER THE GULF COAST.
THE DISCONCERTING ASPECT OF THIS TREND IS THAT THE LAST GFS RUNS
SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF A NORTHWEST JOG IN THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM
JUST BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND NEAR BRO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND FUTURE MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE OVERALL FUTURE
PLACEMENT OF EIGHTEEN. USERS AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
ALWAYS...SHOULD REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO
FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASE IN POPS IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS EIGHTEEN GETS CLOSER TO THE LOWER TEXAS/NORTHERN
MEXICAN COASTLINE.

LATEST GFS RUN INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES IT WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION BOTH KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE WILL RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST...PER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTION...THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

[vbhoutex]

Unfortunately for all of us here in TX the models are trending to a WNW to NW turn at the 5 day time frame at the moment. It appears that the ridge which is currently giving us high 90's temps will be doing possibly two things towards the end of the week. It is progged to move to the East some, not a huge amount though, and coupled with this it may not be as strong as earlier thought. The jury is still out on that. I have not taken the time to look past the model tracks at this point, but I also suspect there is a possibility of a trough moving across to our North which would also tend to erode the western periphery of the ridge. If it is further East than it currently is and this happens that would indeed tend to steer the storm more towards TX. I'm not saying that will happen yet, but it is an unfortunate distinct possibility for Texans and our friends from LA who are still staying here with us.

[hicksta]

[rockyman]

Since it is obvious that Texas is NOT safe, I think it would be very helpful if someone changed the title of this thread to read "Official Texas TD 18 Thread" or something like that.

[Garnetcat5]

Big Steve , are you enjoying Katy hospitality? I know it must be hard to be displaced for so long but I hope Katy is treating you well....I live just south of Katy in Richmond. As for TD 18 I will just wait and see ....what will happen will happen.....but i finalize hurricane kit and plan with the family. Katrina taught me one thing....make sure you can take care of yourself! So I will double the supplies in the kit...and the water then wait and see....Am concerned local mets aren't going to want to start a panic with evacuee.....I hope they don't wait to long if it does come this way...

[abajan]

Big Steve ... it is clear you are a hurricane magnet, judging from your travel journal. Please move to another state ... like Arkansas!

...

Reminds me of a lightning magnet named Roy Sullivan (a.k.a. Dooms) who was a ranger in Virginia's Shenandoah National Park. He claims he was struck by lightning no fewer than seven times! It is said that one restaurant in the park even used to refuse letting him onto their premises during thunderstorms!

Source: April 1988 Reader's Digest, page 21

[sma10]

What an absolutely ridiculous thing to post 5 - 7 days prior to the arrival of a tropical system.

How many times do people have to be proven wrong by the tropics before they realize you cannot make absolute statements like "Texas completely safe"

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'd just consider it as a little bit naive to say one is immune or safe from any sort of a TD/TS which is supposed to generally move in one's direction. Or it is wishful thinking. ..

[Rainband]

No one in the GOM is safe. Texas has a better shot at this system at this point but as we all know the tropics can be fickle. EVERYONE in the GOM needs to watch until this system makes lanfall.