Tropical Depression Kenneth at CPAC

[Dick Pache]

More on the way
Honduras had rain and heavy winds tonight

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160957
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH

KENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON
THE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS
MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS
SET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH
TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY
SOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE
SYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
AND IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 96
AND 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AS
WELL AS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN 60NM OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB YIELD T4.5 OR 77 KT. BASED
ON AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND DATA-T
NUMBERS AT 4.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS BETWEEN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER
ENSEMBLE WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTHENING FORECAST AT 76 KT...81 KT...AND
88 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
DISTURBING THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ON
A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST TAKES KENNETH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 123.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W 60 KT

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 170236
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 95SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 125.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 125.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS
SUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
THE MOST RECENT INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICT A
WELL DEFINED... BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE...WITH INTENSE OUTER
RAINBANDS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH AGREES WITH THE COUPLED GFDL AND
THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SITUATED BETWEEN HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A
DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 135W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THIS
SCENARIO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 125.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W 85 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W 85 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W 65 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W 55 KT

[Anonymous]

Now a 125 mph Category 3 Major Hurricane

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170850
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0900Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 125.8W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


$$


The Eastern Pacific has just Answered the Atlantic with a big one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170905
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

A 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL
SYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE
CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT. 06Z DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE
INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75
KT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A
DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS
SUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE
NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH
SUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
FOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W 110 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W 105 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W 90 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W 80 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W 55 KT

[Scorpion]

Ooh the Atlantic is so scared .

[Brent]

Ooh the Atlantic is so scared .

[WindRunner]

HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
1500Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 126.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

And so it weakens.

[f5]

kenneth looks like Charley he so tiny but so distructive

[cycloneye]

TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 127.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 127.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 110SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 128.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 127.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 128.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[cycloneye]

TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TOPS OVER THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE INNER CORE HAVE COOLED. A WHITE BAND PRACTICALLY
SURROUNDED THE EYE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SMALL BREAK OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AGAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/6. THE NARROW MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED
LOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW...
TURNING KENNETH SHARPLY TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE AND LESS
AGGRESSIVE TURN INTO THE BREAK...WHICH IS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE
FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON THE 0300Z
QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.3N 128.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W 90 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 80 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W 50 KT

[WindRunner]

We have a Cat 4 here.

Kenneth
TCDEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE
SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THIS YIELDS T NUMBERS OF 6.0
FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 5.5 FROM TAFB. THE LATEST CIMSS AODT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND T 6.2. THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 115 KT...WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD IN
36-48 HOURS...DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH A DIGGING DEEP-LAYERED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF AND UKMET
MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH MOVES KENNETH ON A
MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND LEANS TOWARDS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOWER WEAKER DUE TO THE
HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IF KENNETH TRACKS MORE WESTWARD IT
WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS WHICH COULD DELAY THE WEAKENING
PROCESS.

FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 14.3N 129.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W 110 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W 100 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W 50 KT


$$
WWWW

[Scorpion]

Gee Kenneth is tiny seems that he could fit into Katrina's eyewall.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 182039
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
2100Z SUN SEP 18 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.8W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 129.8W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 129.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 129.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER SISKO/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTPZ21 KNHC 190236
TCMEP1
HURRICANE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112005
0300Z MON SEP 19 2005

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 200SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.4W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 130.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH