Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

[jimvb]

Thanks. The message does not say "Phillippe" explicitly, but infers it through its quote "30KT". So that means indeed we have Phillippe.

For some time I had been wondering what TD 17 would be named, as another wave was starting to threaten S. Florida. I was wondering if that one would be Phillipping first, so that 17 would become Rita.

Now I suppose the wave I mentioned will become Rita shortly.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast/Advisory Number 3


Statement as of 03:00Z on September 18, 2005



interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this
depression.

Tropical storm center located near 14.1n 55.2w at 18/0300z
position accurate within 25 nm

present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 4 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
34 kt....... 15ne 25se 25sw 15nw.
12 ft seas.. 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 14.1n 55.2w at 18/0300z
at 18/0000z center was located near 13.9n 55.1w

forecast valid 18/1200z 14.9n 55.7w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 19/0000z 15.8n 56.4w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 19/1200z 17.0n 57.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 25se 20sw 25nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 50sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 20/0000z 18.1n 58.3w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 21/0000z 20.6n 59.9w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 80sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 22/0000z 23.0n 61.0w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.

Outlook valid 23/0000z 25.0n 62.0w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 14.1n 55.2w

next advisory at 18/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this

depression.

They really are busy.

[jimvb]

That's it. Tropical Storm Phillippe. I notice that at 1030 pm EDT on CNN, the weather woman still called it TD 17 but also announced that TD 18 had formed. About 1045 she came on again with a special report or breaking news - that TD 17 had become Phillippe. So these stations are a little behind.

The models show Phillippe as a powerful fish, but I am getting concerned about TD 18.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The nhc is having a hard time organizing there home page.

[cycloneye]

That's it. Tropical Storm Phillippe. I notice that at 1030 pm EDT on CNN, the weather woman still called it TD 17 but also announced that TD 18 had formed. About 1045 she came on again with a special report or breaking news - that TD 17 had become Phillippe. So these stations are a little behind.

The models show Phillippe as a powerful fish, but I am getting concerned about TD 18.

Storm2k is way ahead of the media in terms of updated information as we get it way ahead of time.For the best reliable and rapid information this forum is the place to be.

[Brent]

The nhc is having a hard time organizing there home page.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

LOL

[jimvb]

I agree. At Storm2k, one can find out where storms less than TDs go - waves, invests, and so forth.

[cycloneye]

180313
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTENN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 485
MILES... 780 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES
... 45 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...14.1 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[nequad]

492
WTNT42 KNHC 180330
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

CONVENTIONAL AND MCIROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A 17/2154Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER WEST OF 55W LONGITUDE...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITION NEAR THAT
TIME INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF 55W. MY FEELING IS THAT
THE RECON CENTER WAS A SMALL CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTHWARD UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THAT THE TWO CENTERS
HAVE NOW CONSOLIDATED NEAR 55W. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM
SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE
VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING
PHILIPPE AROUND 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT
5 DAYS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT.
THEREFORE...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.

BASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PORTION OF THE
LESSER ANTILES. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING CURRENTS BEING RATHER WEAK
AND ILL-DEFINED...ANY WESTWARD SHIFT COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.1N 55.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 14.9N 55.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 56.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 57.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 58.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.6N 59.9W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 61.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 62.0W 95 KT

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 180835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[JamesFromMaine2]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180836
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO
45 KT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE
CENTER IS THAT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE T-NUMBER. THE
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM
WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. PHILIPPE'S UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...ALTHOUGH IT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH
72 HOURS. MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT DAYS
4-5 BECAUSE THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY
THIS GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER FORECAST TIMES.

PHILIPPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...325/04. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS KIND OF TRACK. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS PRETTY MUCH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 14.6N 55.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 15.3N 56.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 16.4N 56.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 57.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 18.7N 58.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 61.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 95 KT


$$

[ConvergenceZone]

models are shifting further south now and so is the track. Looks like the chance of this being a Mexico storm is increasing a bit as the high pressure building in suppose to be pretty strong and also the fact that the storm is moving westward. Looks like it's possible that it may miss Florida which is great news!!!

The only other thing we can hope for is that it doesn't strengthen too much in the gulf. Mexico needs to watch this one carefully though.

[krysof]

I think you are confused. This is Phillipe not TD 18.

[oneness]

Don't you mean TD18 is a MEX candidate?

[ConvergenceZone]

oops, hehe yea, you are right, clicked on the wrong thread before my post .. I did mean TD 18, so ignore.

[bvigal]

WTNT32 KNHC 180835
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

...PHILIPPE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PHILIPPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES... 730 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

PHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
... 55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...14.6 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[chris_fit]

Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2005


...Philippe strengthening east of the Lesser Antilles but moving
north-northwestward...

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Philippe.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.2 north... longitude 55.7 west or about
425 miles... 685 km... east-southeast of the Leeward Islands.


Philippe is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue during the
next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and Philippe could become a
hurricane during the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Repeating the 11 am EDT position...15.2 N... 55.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.


Forecaster Knabb




$$

[chris_fit]

Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2005


convection has consolidated some more near the low level
center...and banding features are evident in the eastern
semicircle. As a result... Dvorak T numbers from all agencies have
increased to 3.0...supporting the advisory intensity of 45 kt.
Continued strengthening is forecast...since upper level ridging
over the cyclone is expected to expand northward along the forecast
track. An upper level trough currently oriented east-west along
about 25n is forecast by the models to weaken and provide a
somewhat favorable environment through at least 72 hours. The
official forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance in bringing
Philippe to 85 kt by 72 hours...and then follows the GFDL in
forecasting additional strengthening through five days.

The estimated initial motion of 335/6 is a little to the east of the
previous track...perhaps due to the center being drawn in that
direction by the large convective burst that developed early this
morning. The forecast track is adjusted just slightly to the east
and is very close to the model consensus...which takes the
developing storm northwestward and eventualy north-northwestward
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge...between high pressure
cells over the central Atlantic and over the eastern U.S.


Although the current forecast track does not necessitate any watches
or warnings for the Lesser Antilles...interests in these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of Philippe.


Forecaster Knabb




forecast positions and Max winds


initial 18/1500z 15.2n 55.7w 45 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 16.0n 56.2w 55 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 17.1n 57.0w 65 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 18.2n 58.0w 70 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 19.4n 58.8w 75 kt
72hr VT 21/1200z 22.0n 60.0w 85 kt
96hr VT 22/1200z 24.5n 61.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 27.0n 62.0w 100 kt

[curtadams]

The forecast track is adjusted just slightly to the east
and is very close to the model consensus...which takes the
developing storm northwestward and eventualy north-northwestward
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge...between high pressure
cells over the central Atlantic and over the eastern U.S.

I haven't seen any models predict a US hit. Where are they?