How strong will TD18 get?

#1 Postby **Windy** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 2:14 am

For a bonus points, say where it will likely interact with land, if anywhere.

FlSteel · #2 Postby **FlSteel** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:25 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since no one else has made a projected landfall yet, I'll go ahead and chime in. My very amateurish opinion (with no real data to back it up :lol:

) is around Matagorda bay. Basically half way between Corpus Cristi and Galvenston. And for intensity I'm guessing around a strong Cat 3 or so.

JamesFromMaine2 · #3 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:30 am

Well Considering that it could be near cat 4 as its leaving the florida keys I would say it could be a cat 4 with the chance that it could go higher and for land fall I would have to say prob. Mexico/texas border with the slightest wobble north or south being the deciding factor in if its a mexico or texas direct hit!

WindRunner · #4 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:37 am

I'd say 940-960 and be optimistic by hoping it doesn't go below that, even though it might.

#5 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 7:49 am

WindRunner wrote:I'd say 940-960 and be optimistic by hoping it doesn't go below that, even though it might.

My thoughts exactly.

#6 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:17 am

960-980mb in other words NOT THIS!!!!!:

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:27 am

I picked 940-960, and for the bonus - Florida Keys and South Texas.

wxmann_91 · #8 Postby **wxmann_91** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:44 am

920-940, Galveston. A repeat of the Galveston hurricane in 1900. :eek:

(THIS IS NOT BASED ON ANY METEOROLOGICAL DATA.)

vaffie · #9 Postby **vaffie** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:59 am

I'd say SE Texas, sub-900. Yes, I'm thinking the worst, and that's where I am, and I'm beginning to consider what I might do if I had to evacuate. I just hope this doesn't actually happen. But I think this storm has the potential to become massively powerful and massive in size too.

#10 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:34 pm

BUMP for those who want chime in.

#11 Postby **Buck** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 3:45 pm

940-960... although I wouldn't rule out 930s (I wouldn't rule out anything, really).

Water temperatures are warm enough to support anything... but the gulf is full of super dry air... same thing Ophelia was fighting off and swallowing for much of her time off the SE Coast.

SamSagnella · #12 Postby **SamSagnella** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:36 pm

I picked 940-960 for the same reason mentioned above. As far as landfall(s) are concerned, I say Miami-Dade County South of Biscayne Bay (cat 2) and then Brazoria County, TX near Surfside Beach (cat 3).

vaffie wrote:I'd say SE Texas, sub-900.

Good Lord, I hope you're wrong...not to say its not possible, I just hope you're wrong.

f5 · #13 Postby f5 » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:46 pm

with all the dry air in the GOM thats far from super perfect and you need super perfect conditions the last hurricane to cross into the GOM below 900 was the 1935 labor day hurricane that was 892 the other 2 Allen and Gilbert allen-899 Gilbert-888

Doc Seminole · #14 Postby **Doc Seminole** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:46 pm

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

920-940 Freeport, TX .... for reason I posted earlier today that had to be deleted due to content.

Doc Seminole 8-)

canegrl04 · #15 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:46 pm

The met they had on NBC news tonight said that Rita is capable of being a cat 3 or higher :eek:

Cape Verde · #16 Postby **Cape Verde** » Sun Sep 18, 2005 5:52 pm

Well, everything that can go wrong this year, has gone wrong. So let's make it a Cat 4 storm hitting Freeport Texas, with the storm surge wiping out our petrochemical plants adjacent to Galveston Bay.<P>There. I feel so much better now getting that out of the way. Any upside is gravy.

#17 Postby **Windy** » Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:10 pm

Well, 5% are out of the running -- lets see if she keeps dropping! :wink:

#18 Postby **Windy** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:40 pm

All but 22% are left standing!

Personally, I voted 900-920, but I still think I'm going to lose.

jax · #19 Postby **jax** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 1:47 pm

Windy wrote:All but 22% are left standing!

Personally, I voted 900-920, but I still think I'm going to lose.

actually 47% if the preasure holds.... not likely though

#20 Postby **Windy** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 5:36 pm

Just a few more millibars and a few people will need to come out of the woodwork to gets some pats on the back!