Quite a bit will depend where the actual center forms..
Being that it is still only a depression, any formation more to the north/south will have implications on the eventual track. Stewart was very straight foreword about it in the discussion.
Texas Safe Again....Perfect Timing with Ridge
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Stratosphere747
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Galvestongirl
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O.k., Letme correct a misunderstanding, I did not mean to infer that a cold front was here, I was just trying to convey my belief that ONCE they start getting this far south it is rare for a cane to head this direction. Sorry about that. However, I still hold strong to the belief that if one does not get here by mid august-beginning of Sept it is very rare for a cane to head this direction
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southerngale
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Galvestongirl wrote:O.k., Letme correct a misunderstanding, I did not mean to infer that a cold front was here, I was just trying to convey my belief that ONCE they start getting this far south it is rare for a cane to head this direction. Sorry about that. However, I still hold strong to the belief that if one does not get here by mid august-beginning of Sept it is very rare for a cane to head this direction
I knew what you meant and I agree. I think you just got us drooling, thinking about a cold front.
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Galvestongirl
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southerngale wrote:Galvestongirl wrote:O.k., Letme correct a misunderstanding, I did not mean to infer that a cold front was here, I was just trying to convey my belief that ONCE they start getting this far south it is rare for a cane to head this direction. Sorry about that. However, I still hold strong to the belief that if one does not get here by mid august-beginning of Sept it is very rare for a cane to head this direction
I knew what you meant and I agree. I think you just got us drooling, thinking about a cold front.
Thanks, sometimes it is hard getting a message accross through keyboards rather than in person.
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The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You....
Ok, like, Ok, uhm, Hook Em Horns! and uhm, ok, Uhm.....we don't want another STORM in the GOM? 
Reckoning day is coming for Texas, we are waay overdue...for those that said we were out of the woods.....Lee Corso came into my reply just this second and is saying----"Not so fast my friend!!!" 
This season is wow. Better call RBS for a series of loans................
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southerngale
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Re: The Eyes of Texas Are Upon You....
TexasF6 wrote::D Ok, like, Ok, uhm, Hook Em Horns! and uhm, ok, Uhm.....we don't want another STORM in the GOM?
Yeah, Hook 'em Horns....I agree with you there. Great game, again.
Reckoning day isn't necessarily coming for Texas though and "Mother Nature" doesn't know who is due, or not. I hate that term. Was the Florida Panhandle due this year when Dennis hit?
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I don't like due either! But in the tropical season part of our SKYWARN tranining? thats what out Mets said...we are waaay overdue for a big storm and we (the gen. public) are (hopefully were) lacksadaisical about storms...hopefully not after Katrina..........i wont mention how much oil and gas components are down there............... .
.
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f5 wrote:that high sitting over me may be hot but when there is a major hurricane in the GOM that huge dome of high pressure is our friend and will drive it elsewhere beside texas.God Bless Texas
and boy is it hot!!!!!!!!
It's super hot down here on the coast. But I don't like the new model runs, something's strange...
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Portastorm
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The models start to break down the ridge later this coming week. TD #18-soon-to-be-Rita will make some kind of NW movement ... just a matter of when/where.
JB from Accuwx thinks this might have a shot at Emily-like-strength before landfall. Wasn't she a Cat 4?
Yeah, I know "feelings" are not valid predictors of weather ... but I am getting a very bad feeling about this for Texas.
JB from Accuwx thinks this might have a shot at Emily-like-strength before landfall. Wasn't she a Cat 4?
Yeah, I know "feelings" are not valid predictors of weather ... but I am getting a very bad feeling about this for Texas.
Last edited by Portastorm on Sun Sep 18, 2005 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Yeah its starting to look ominous for TX
Here is an excerpt from the Dallas AFD:
LATEST GFS RUN INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES IT WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION BOTH KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE WILL RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST...PER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTION...THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
Here is an excerpt from the Dallas AFD:
LATEST GFS RUN INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES IT WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION BOTH KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE WILL RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST...PER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTION...THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
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deltadog03
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Galvestongirl
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Houstonia
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KatDaddy wrote:Yeah its starting to look ominous for TX
Here is an excerpt from the Dallas AFD:
LATEST GFS RUN INDICATING A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THIS SOLUTION
VERIFIES IT WOULD BRING CONSIDERABLE RAIN TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION BOTH KEEP THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION. WE WILL RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST...PER ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SOLUTION...THROUGH SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.
The current discussion out of Hou/Galv doesn't say anything about Rita/TD18. I think they are not touching this storm unless they absolutely have to. The emergency management officials in Houston are probably laying in bed with their pillows over their heads as we speak!!
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I think this afternoons AFD will a little more different. I think we will see more concern in their discussion regarding TD18.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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