Tropical Depression Philippe Advisories=Last Advisorie

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

17/1800 UTC 12.9N 55.5W T2.5/2.5 17

[hurricanefloyd5]

will tropical storm philippe????????????????????

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't believe it looking at satellite. But the recon has found this to be a depression still.

[Skyline]

I know Matt, that is one impressive looking TD!

[Skyline]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2005



an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft found a broad and
elongated circulation center on the northeast side of the strong
convection of Tropical Depression Seventeen...with the reported
position somewhat to the north of the previous advisory position.
The latest minimum central pressure is 1006 mb and the maximum
flight-level winds at 1500 ft so far are 40 kt. This suggests that
the depression is not quite a tropical storm...but it should reach
that status sometime tonight.
The initial motion is a still somewhat uncertain 310/8. Steering
currents remain unusually weak for that part of the Atlantic...and
the cyclone is expected to move rather slowly northwestward around
the southwest side of a weak mid-level ridge for the next 3 days...
with perhaps a more northward motion after three days towards a
weakness in the ridge. The large-scale models continue to forecast
the system to pass east of the Lesser Antilles...although most of
them still do not not initialize the system very well. The
forecast track is shifted somewhat to the north of the previous
track based on the initial position...and lies along the left side
of the envelope of model guidance.

The cyclone is forecast to be over 30c water for the next 5 days and
the shear is forecast to be light to perhaps moderate. Thus...
steady strengthening should occur. The SHIPS model has a little
less intensification than 6 hr ago as it is forecasting a little
more shear. However...the GFDL continues to show rapid
intensification to a major hurricane. The intensity forecast
brings the depression to hurricane strength in 48 hr and to 95 kt
by 120 hr...in between SHIPS and the GFDL.

The current forecast track does not immediately require watches or
warnings. Watches or warnings may be required for portions of the
Lesser Antilles later tonight or Sunday.

Forecaster Beven


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 13.8n 55.2w 30 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 14.6n 56.1w 35 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 15.6n 57.1w 45 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 16.6n 58.1w 55 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 17.6n 59.1w 65 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 61.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 21.5n 62.0w 85 kt
120hr VT 22/1800z 23.5n 63.0w 95 kt

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172005
2100Z SAT SEP 17 2005

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 55.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 54.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.6N 57.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 58.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.6N 59.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 55.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DEPRESSION. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST OR
ABOUT 290 MILES... 470 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 55.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

[skysummit]

Wouldn't it eventually run into this strong high and turn west? Or should it find a weakness and continue NW?

[MiamiensisWx]

Wouldn't it eventually run into this strong high and turn west? Or should it find a weakness and continue NW?

It might make a jog to the west once it hits the rebuilding ridge; however, most models indicate that the ridge may only be strong/rebuild for a short time before weakening/shifting eastward. It is still early, though, although the system needs to be watched.

[Steve H.]

That is a good question, but will the high retrograde westward and Not build across the western atlantic?? That would put Florida in a good position (at least central Florida), with the System north of the DR going SW into the GOM, and the system near the islands getting taken out to sea. We'll see though.......depends on if the DR system makes north progress first and if TD 17 gets north quick enough

[Rainband]

That is a good question, but will the high retrograde westward and Not build across the western atlantic?? That would put Florida in a good position (at least central Florida), with the System north of the DR going SW into the GOM, and the system near the islands getting taken out to sea. We'll see though.......depends on if the DR system makes north progress first and if TD 17 gets north quick enough

after ophelia. I take everything with a grain of salt

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM SEVENTEEN (AL172005) ON 20050918 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050918 0000 050918 1200 050919 0000 050919 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.6W 15.3N 55.8W 16.2N 56.0W
BAMM 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.7W 15.4N 56.2W 16.2N 56.6W
A98E 13.9N 55.0W 14.5N 55.5W 15.2N 56.3W 16.2N 56.7W
LBAR 13.9N 55.0W 14.6N 55.7W 15.3N 56.7W 16.0N 57.7W
SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 62KTS
DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 53KTS 62KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050920 0000 050921 0000 050922 0000 050923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 56.0W 20.3N 56.0W 23.5N 56.0W 26.8N 56.4W
BAMM 17.3N 57.0W 19.5N 57.9W 22.0N 58.7W 24.4N 59.5W
A98E 17.7N 56.8W 21.2N 57.1W 24.5N 57.6W 26.9N 57.8W
LBAR 16.8N 58.9W 18.6N 61.1W 21.0N 62.7W 23.1N 63.1W
SHIP 70KTS 82KTS 88KTS 89KTS
DSHP 70KTS 82KTS 88KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.9N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 54.6W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 53.5W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 15NM RD34SE = 25NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 15NM


We got the P storm.

[Brent]

It's Phillippe BTW. I checked the storm names on the NHC site.

[tracyswfla]

It's Phillippe BTW. I checked the storm names on the NHC site.

OMG I can't believe it!

[Brent]

It's Phillippe BTW. I checked the storm names on the NHC site.

OMG I can't believe it!

First time Phillippe has been used as well.

[cycloneye]

It's Phillippe BTW. I checked the storm names on the NHC site.

Ok put the other p.

[Andrew92]

Will this become the first "P" storm to become a hurricane? I think so.

Pablo '95 - TS
Peter '03 - TS
Philippe '05 - ???

-Andrew92

[jimvb]

There was a P storm (excuse my language) in 1995, namely Tropical Storm Pablo. In fact, the NHC went all the way to T that year.

But when I go to the NHC site ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov ), I find that at 2005 September 17 2155 EDT, they are still calling it Tropical Depression Seventeen. Where's the site that calls it Philippe?

[Andrew92]

There was a P storm (excuse my language) in 1995, namely Tropical Storm Pablo. In fact, the NHC went all the way to T that year.

But when I go to the NHC site ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov ), I find that at 2005 September 17 2155 EDT, they are still calling it Tropical Depression Seventeen. Where's the site that calls it Philippe?

Luis made a post about 3/4 of the way to the bottom of the page, from the official models, and it will be upgraded to Philippe at 11 PM:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120