Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

This is not good news on that run at all....

[Scorpion]

Yikes, two potentially big hurricanes, and both could go to S FL. 95L will likely turn west a little north of the islands and intensify to a major, according to SHIPS, and 96L could come to S FL first as a TS or maybe even a cane. Then into the GOM as a possible major. Wow.

[skysummit]

Holy Katrina ..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z GFDL run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah... It's very close to the Keys too and has a northerly component on motion then... bad for the Northern Gulf.

WOW that's a scary looking model run! I won't buy it though...not until 4 or 5 days from now.

[Nimbus]

I looked at the visibles this morning and there is still some shear and barely any circulation. Doubt you will find a wind from the west till this afternoon.

The NHC has done a stellar job so far this year but the time frame is going to be a little tight with 96L and Florida.

Guess by tomorrow if the TD verifies they could be talking about a tropical storm in the keys to get people watching, then upgrade and roll the track right as needed?

[x-y-no]

Holy Katrina ..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z GFDL run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah ... but remember the GFDL had Katrina hitting Key Largo as a Cat 3.

This is disturbing though, since the GFDL can hardly be dismissed. The northward bend at the end of the track bothers me too. Up to now, the models have been keeping it south all the way across to Mexico, something I was finding a little hard to believe.

[Brent]

This is disturbing though, since the GFDL can hardly be dismissed. The northward bend at the end of the track bothers me too. Up to now, the models have been keeping it south all the way across to Mexico, something I was finding a little hard to believe.

Yea... a track far to the south this time of year is practically unheard of.

[x-y-no]

Just for reference, here's the relevant frame of the GFDL run we're discussing:

[Canelaw99]

peachy, just peachy - thanks GFDL LOL

[Brent]

11:30am TWO!!!

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING NEXT DAY OR
SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING
DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

[CHRISTY]

[Brent]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2005091700//slp12.png

[CHRISTY]

wow!!!! here we go!

[SouthFloridawx]

yeah

not good not good

[cajungal]

Should be a threat only to Mexico and South Texas and not the the gulf coast? The models look they take it awfully far south.

[wzrgirl1]

yeah

not good not good

no it's not looking good....looks as if it will threaten south florida anyway...i think by tomorrow we should get a better picture

[SouthFloridawx]

agree

[Ivanhater]

Should be a threat only to Mexico and South Texas and not the the gulf coast? The models look they take it awfully far south.

i wish, but the gfdl bring it north when it gets in the gulf

[Scorpion]

Wow look at that nice ridge. Its finally building in and we are in mid September. Could Florida see a double hit?

[Ivanhater]

Wow look at that nice ridge. Its finally building in and we are in mid September. Could Florida see a double hit?

we already have, dennis and katrina being hurricanes, and arlene a tropical storm

[jasons2k]

Should be a threat only to Mexico and South Texas and not the the gulf coast? The models look they take it awfully far south.

NWS Houston office has been very confident strong upper ridge will keep any tropical threats south of TX through next week.

JB thinks models are too far south and this could be a TX threat, but not east of that.

My take is that it's just too early to tell. Yes, models indicate strong ridge will protect us. However, it is getting to be late Sept. and ridges have a much harder time "sticking". Sometimes the models are guilty of holding it too long this late in the season. But we'll see.......