Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cinlfla]

It's the most ship and dshp haved been so far with this system in intensity 92kts.

Good Grief!!! While I do hope for a cane to form, I hope that no land masses have to deal with it.

[Rainband]

Niiice.

Just what the United states needs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It played this game a few weeks ago. I don't trust the ship model any more. Also the Gfdl was bombing that system into a cat5 with support from every global model. I'm not falling for it yet.

[Scorpion]

Well hopefully it gets major just to fill up the ranks and then weakens.

[Scorpion]

It played this game a few weeks ago. I don't trust the ship model any more. Also the Gfdl was bombing that system into a cat5 with support from every global model. I'm not falling for it yet.

That was the GFDL. SHIPS was never near that bullish.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Haven't really checked much into this system quite yet, but you can see that there is NO closed circulation at all. Yes, it has a broad circulation, but not a closed center, which you can tell by the absence of any north winds on the front side of it. This is based on an early morning Quikscat.

The system has not become any better organized during the day today, even though it has an upper-level anticyclone that was well forecasted by the models a few days ago. This is responsible for the lack of strong shearing winds at this time.

Despite the above mentioned factor and very warm SSTs, there really isn't much organization with this system. Convection has developed and deepened this evening over the main feature, but the energy is mostly confined to the NE of it. This doesn't make it too favorable for significant development in the near term.

Regardless of its strength, the system is likely to gradually begin a WNW trajectory as it nears the islands. This is ALL due to an area of troughiness that extends from just north of Puerto Rico eastward for several hundred miles. It really is not a point of it (95L) being in a southern latitude because what is supposed to steer it is far enough south to pull it gradually.

Just be sure that until/IF it develops a well-defined closed low pressure center, the system will not be classified. Right now it doesn't meet that criteria.

Behind 95L, a distinct disturbance near 8N 38W is gaining some momentum. It is currently under some moderate northerly wind flow associated with the large anticyclone over and just NE of 95L. If it persists for the next 24 hours, it will be yet another feature to watch as it positions itself under a slightly more favorable easterly flow...

I think that is pretty much a good analysis of the system at this point. It has not yet pulled out of the ITCZ. The prevailing flow is NW at that lattitude and the Southerly flow can not fully "wrap" until it pulls bit more north. The trough will probably do that IMHO based on the model consensus. The feature behind 95L has been on the GFS and UKMET and a liitle bit on the NOGAPS for today's earlier run.

[Rainband]

Haven't really checked much into this system quite yet, but you can see that there is NO closed circulation at all. Yes, it has a broad circulation, but not a closed center, which you can tell by the absence of any north winds on the front side of it. This is based on an early morning Quikscat.

The system has not become any better organized during the day today, even though it has an upper-level anticyclone that was well forecasted by the models a few days ago. This is responsible for the lack of strong shearing winds at this time.

Despite the above mentioned factor and very warm SSTs, there really isn't much organization with this system. Convection has developed and deepened this evening over the main feature, but the energy is mostly confined to the NE of it. This doesn't make it too favorable for significant development in the near term.

Regardless of its strength, the system is likely to gradually begin a WNW trajectory as it nears the islands. This is ALL due to an area of troughiness that extends from just north of Puerto Rico eastward for several hundred miles. It really is not a point of it (95L) being in a southern latitude because what is supposed to steer it is far enough south to pull it gradually.

Just be sure that until/IF it develops a well-defined closed low pressure center, the system will not be classified. Right now it doesn't meet that criteria.

Behind 95L, a distinct disturbance near 8N 38W is gaining some momentum. It is currently under some moderate northerly wind flow associated with the large anticyclone over and just NE of 95L. If it persists for the next 24 hours, it will be yet another feature to watch as it positions itself under a slightly more favorable easterly flow...

I think that is pretty much a good analysis of the system at this point. It has not yet pulled out of the ITCZ. The prevailing flow is NW at that lattitude and the Southerly flow can not fully "wrap" until it pulls bit more north. The trough will probably do that IMHO based on the model consensus. The feature behind 95L has been on the GFS and UKMET and a liitle bit on the NOGAPS for today's earlier run.

can I see your crystal ball?? I see no consensus.

[cjrciadt]

Boy look at the models now, NW or WNW movement now the ridge will weaken greatly for this to happen.

[Jim Hughes]

[quote="Rainband

can I see your crystal ball?? I see no consensus.[/quote]

Hey..Hey..Hey That crystal ball is mine. Give it back.


Jim

[skysummit]

Another "underestimating of the ridge" is in our future???

[Brent]

Boy look at the models now, NW or WNW movement now the ridge will weaken greatly for this to happen.

It better start gaining some latitude fast... or those models are garbage.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Haven't really checked much into this system quite yet, but you can see that there is NO closed circulation at all. Yes, it has a broad circulation, but not a closed center, which you can tell by the absence of any north winds on the front side of it. This is based on an early morning Quikscat.

The system has not become any better organized during the day today, even though it has an upper-level anticyclone that was well forecasted by the models a few days ago. This is responsible for the lack of strong shearing winds at this time.

Despite the above mentioned factor and very warm SSTs, there really isn't much organization with this system. Convection has developed and deepened this evening over the main feature, but the energy is mostly confined to the NE of it. This doesn't make it too favorable for significant development in the near term.

Regardless of its strength, the system is likely to gradually begin a WNW trajectory as it nears the islands. This is ALL due to an area of troughiness that extends from just north of Puerto Rico eastward for several hundred miles. It really is not a point of it (95L) being in a southern latitude because what is supposed to steer it is far enough south to pull it gradually.

Just be sure that until/IF it develops a well-defined closed low pressure center, the system will not be classified. Right now it doesn't meet that criteria.

Behind 95L, a distinct disturbance near 8N 38W is gaining some momentum. It is currently under some moderate northerly wind flow associated with the large anticyclone over and just NE of 95L. If it persists for the next 24 hours, it will be yet another feature to watch as it positions itself under a slightly more favorable easterly flow...

I think that is pretty much a good analysis of the system at this point. It has not yet pulled out of the ITCZ. The prevailing flow is NW at that lattitude and the Southerly flow can not fully "wrap" until it pulls bit more north. The trough will probably do that IMHO based on the model consensus. The feature behind 95L has been on the GFS and UKMET and a liitle bit on the NOGAPS for today's earlier run.

can I see your crystal ball?? I see no consensus.

Most of the globals pull the system N out of the ITCZ which is positioned south of 10N . Also the dynamical models do too, except for maybe the earlier runs of the LBAR and the current NOGAPS, which more or less plows the system into South America along the ITCZ We have seen a few waves this season which did that, but this one probably won't due to the realtive lower presssure to the NW of 95L. I don't want to use the terms "crystal ball" and GFS together...but

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005091518&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005091512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005091518-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[krysof]

Wow, that's for 95L correct. Could the Carolinas get another beating including the mid atlantic?

[hicksta]

GFDL first one to suggest the N movement. Also shows it as a cat 4

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wayyyyy too soon to be talking cat 4 IMO. But the trend I see is development and moving N. It could always stay embedded in the ITCZ and dissipate or move over land ( alot of waves do) but look at the pattern in the lower levels on the 85ghz sometimes the organization of the overall system does not show up on QS.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I should also note that the GFDL ( if it was to verify this far out) woudl probably result in a non-landfall based on climo.

Here is an 85ghz with the older QS pass on it. I would not go far as to call it a closed LLC, but it looks closer to it at this point. If it does not close off by tomorrow, it will be more likely to dissipate.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing new, and not much information.

[Steve H.]

What do you expect them to say?

[BensonTCwatcher]

NHC is not "holding out" on us They sure aren't going so say

"...area of convection and circulation which will be a CAT 4 in 200+ hours is almost a TD....."

even if a model or 2 shows it. We/I will see in the morning what this wave will do. nitey nite