Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[BamaMan]

No, Those are the models for 95L

[Shoshana]

i want to see 95!

Clear your cache and hit F5 to refresh.

[cycloneye]

LONG TERM...A VERY WELL DEFINED AND STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 47 WEST CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD
TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE
LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.



The above is from the San Juan NWS Discussion this afternoon.

[Ivanhater]

No, Those are the models for 95L

well on my computer they are showing opehila by the carolinas

[BamaMan]

Sorry IH . . . Didn't mean to sound harsh.

[Ivanhater]

i want to see 95!

Clear your cache and hit F5 to refresh.

it worked, thanks

[Shoshana]

i want to see 95!

Clear your cache and hit F5 to refresh.

it worked, thanks

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[jasons2k]

ahh, so they changed it from "continues to become better organized"....

[superfly]

[Anonymous]

ahh, so they changed it from "continues to become better organized"....

What was it before?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a Closed LLC when will they upgrade?

[tailgater]

I don't see aclosed LLC

[Typhoon_Willie]

I guess they will call it a TD when in their consideration there is enough thunderstorm activity wrapping around the center of circulation.

[Hyperstorm]

Haven't really checked much into this system quite yet, but you can see that there is NO closed circulation at all. Yes, it has a broad circulation, but not a closed center, which you can tell by the absence of any north winds on the front side of it. This is based on an early morning Quikscat.

The system has not become any better organized during the day today, even though it has an upper-level anticyclone that was well forecasted by the models a few days ago. This is responsible for the lack of strong shearing winds at this time.

Despite the above mentioned factor and very warm SSTs, there really isn't much organization with this system. Convection has developed and deepened this evening over the main feature, but the energy is mostly confined to the NE of it. This doesn't make it too favorable for significant development in the near term.

Regardless of its strength, the system is likely to gradually begin a WNW trajectory as it nears the islands. This is ALL due to an area of troughiness that extends from just north of Puerto Rico eastward for several hundred miles. It really is not a point of it (95L) being in a southern latitude because what is supposed to steer it is far enough south to pull it gradually.

Just be sure that until/IF it develops a well-defined closed low pressure center, the system will not be classified. Right now it doesn't meet that criteria.

Behind 95L, a distinct disturbance near 8N 38W is gaining some momentum. It is currently under some moderate northerly wind flow associated with the large anticyclone over and just NE of 95L. If it persists for the next 24 hours, it will be yet another feature to watch as it positions itself under a slightly more favorable easterly flow...

[jasons2k]

ahh, so they changed it from "continues to become better organized"....

What was it before?

It was changed from "has continued to become better organized" to "continues to be well organized."

[cycloneye]

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TILTED SW TO NE ALONG 6N49W 20N45W MOVING W
10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 9N48W. THE
LOW ISN'T PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED AT THIS POINT AND IS
PROBABLY ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE SIMILAR TO THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IS IN THE PATH OF THE
LOW WITH ALMOST EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL GENESIS. THIS AREA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MOTION
TOWARD THE NW BECAUSE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11.5N BETWEEN 49W-51W
WITH THE LOW AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 42W-48W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

Special Feature at 8 PM Discussion.

[THead]

W-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TILTED SW TO NE ALONG 6N49W 20N45W MOVING W
10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 9N48W. THE
LOW ISN'T PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED AT THIS POINT AND IS
PROBABLY ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE SIMILAR TO THE WAVE AXIS.
HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IS IN THE PATH OF THE
LOW WITH ALMOST EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL GENESIS. THIS AREA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MOTION
TOWARD THE NW BECAUSE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11.5N BETWEEN 49W-51W
WITH THE LOW AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 42W-48W ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

Special Feature at 8 PM Discussion.

So they're also mentioning whats behind 95L?

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050916 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050916 0000 050916 1200 050917 0000 050917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 49.2W 10.4N 51.0W 11.0N 52.4W 11.7N 53.5W
BAMM 9.8N 49.2W 10.6N 50.9W 11.5N 52.0W 12.5N 52.8W
A98E 9.8N 49.2W 10.8N 51.7W 11.4N 54.1W 11.8N 56.1W
LBAR 9.8N 49.2W 10.8N 51.8W 11.6N 54.4W 12.2N 56.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050918 0000 050919 0000 050920 0000 050921 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 54.3W 13.8N 55.5W 15.2N 57.0W 16.8N 58.5W
BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 14.9N 53.3W 16.3N 54.5W 18.3N 56.1W
A98E 11.8N 58.0W 13.1N 61.1W 14.1N 64.3W 15.9N 67.1W
LBAR 13.1N 59.0W 14.4N 62.2W 15.3N 65.0W 16.0N 67.4W
SHIP 54KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS
DSHP 54KTS 71KTS 84KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 49.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 46.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models.

It's the most ship and dshp haved been so far with this system in intensity 92kts.

[Scorpion]

Niiice.