Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[skysummit]

Wow...SHIPS to 82kts now.

[boca]

The stystem looks to good for them to dissapate 95L after 6 hors by the TPC/NHC.

[jlauderdal]

Quickscats coming in this morning shows that it now has a small LLC around 9 north/47 west. The convection is centered there with nice outflow/banding. I think this will be upgraded to a tropical depression by 5pm.

3 more for 1995
5 more for 1933
6 more for the record.

I guess it could because there has been an awful lot of ioniztion recently by way of all these increased particle but this would go against the 500 solar wind speed km/sec rule....it is still way above.

If it was to form it would have to be in the weakening solar wind trend... and sice it would still be above 500 km/sec ..then it would most likely end up being a fish storm....or east coast ...from what IMHO over the years.


Jim

well that post certainly settles the issue.

[cjrciadt]

http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=SatelliteImagery&product=AtlanticLoop&prodnav=none

[JTD]

What is THAT just exiting the coast of Africa in the pic above. Could that be T.D. #18?

[abajan]

What is THAT just exiting the coast of Africa in the pic above. Could that be T.D. #18?

Nah, I doubt it. Conditions aren't exactly favorable for development in that region right now.

[bvigal]

Intellicast loop

Perhaps would be better to post link to loop, as I've changed it, above, rather than the whole loop loading with the thread. Just took my computer 2 minutes to load this page.

[cjrciadt]

Intellicast loop

Perhaps would be better to post link to loop, as I've changed it, above, rather than the whole loop loading with the thread. Just took my computer 2 minutes to load this page.

Sorry, I forget our non 5mb per second users.

[cycloneye]

Surface anaylisis of the atlantic.

[Frank2]

Just my opinion, but probably the 11:30 TWO will say basically the same thing as the 5:30, especially since the area has not changed much this morning (if anything, it has weakened a bit since the overnight hours).

Frank

[clueless newbie]

While the amount of convection has decreased, there is as small blob of convection (now around 58W, 10N) that has persisted over the last 6-12 hours. It seems to be on WNW o(r slightly north of that) track on the last IR loop.

[skysummit]

I still see the lower levels going west. That blob does look nice though.

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[cinlfla]

AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


Well, I said at 11:00 it would be a td but thats ok they still say its possible for it to happan today.

[Ivanhater]

Just my opinion, but probably the 11:30 TWO will say basically the same thing as the 5:30, especially since the area has not changed much this morning (if anything, it has weakened a bit since the overnight hours).

Frank

we all make a bad call sometimes

[PuertoRicoLibre]

So much for Frank's wishful thinking.

By the way, the slower it organizes the further west this garcon moves.

[cjrciadt]

[jasons2k]

I wonder how many times it can "continue to become better organized" before it is finally classified.

[Ivanhater]

I wonder how many times it can "continue to become better organized" before it is finally classified.

haaaa, i didnt think of that

[Brent]

I wonder how many times it can "continue to become better organized" before it is finally classified.

LOL... I still say 5pm. I'm expecting "Tropical Depression Seventeen" on the 18z models.