Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SkeetoBite]

Ok....I have many bookmarks where I get graphics from and text from. What I'm getting at, is do you find the text output any useful, or do you normally just wait for a graphic output?

A lot of the folks on these boards can get an idea of the track by just looking at the text version, however, many more cannot and need the graphics.

The text includes the SHIPS and DSHIPS winds speed models for each plot in the forecast. I think only wunderground.com currently includes these numbers in their graphics. We may add them if folks find this useful.

Since you're likely about to ask... SHIPS are wind intensity forecast ignoring land under the storm. DSHIP accounts for the weakening affect land has on a hurricane over land and follows SHIPS until the plots take the storm over land.

Hope that helps.

[Scorpion]

It will likely be a Caribbean storm, and would gather some good strength over those high octane waters.

[Brent]

It looks REALLY good tonight. If this keeps up, I say TD tomorrow.

[skysummit]

Ok....I have many bookmarks where I get graphics from and text from. What I'm getting at, is do you find the text output any useful, or do you normally just wait for a graphic output?

A lot of the folks on these boards can get an idea of the track by just looking at the text version, however, many more cannot and need the graphics.

The text includes the SHIPS and DSHIPS winds speed models for each plot in the forecast. I think only wunderground.com currently includes these numbers in their graphics. We may add them if folks find this useful.

Since you're likely about to ask... SHIPS are wind intensity forecast ignoring land under the storm. DSHIP accounts for the weakening affect land has on a hurricane over land and follows SHIPS until the plots take the storm over land.

Hope that helps.

Thanks, you answered my question! By the way, EXCELLENT website you guys have! Keep it up!!!

[cjrciadt]

The models are all over this invest. The GFD models goes due N. you cant see it the legend is in the way.

[MiamiensisWx]

It will likely be a Caribbean storm, and would gather some good strength over those high octane waters.

True... however, not just one factor influences this system's strength. Other factors, notably shear, need to be factored in as well.

[Coredesat]

Only light shear over the Caribbean at the moment. The GFS and CMC call for a slight increase in shear, but they relax it after 36-48 hours.

[THead]

Light shear, hot water, record breaking season.......sigh......is it here we go again? Wonder what we'll be talking about 4-5 days from now. It is kind of far south though isn't it?

[Brent]

Where's the TWO???

[cycloneye]

Brent remember that they are very busy with 3 cyclones 2 in the EPAC and Ophelia.

[Coredesat]

Light shear, hot water, record breaking season.......sigh......is it here we go again? Wonder what we'll be talking about 4-5 days from now. It is kind of far south though isn't it?

That's not all. Wet MJO is slowly beginning to enter the Atlantic basin:

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[skysummit]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Wow....they really get into it heh? I could've wrote that outlook.

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Wow....they really get into it heh? I could've wrote that outlook.

Copy-paste.

and it was late...

[jasons2k]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Wow....they really get into it heh? I could've wrote that outlook.

In their defense so many of these come and go, not just in one year, but over the course of many years, it's best not to write War & Peace for every wave out there, esp. while we have a hurricane with the eyewall on the coast as we speak (er type...). They got bigger fish to fry at the moment.

[hurricanefloyd5]

when will Philippe form soon i hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skysummit]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Wow....they really get into it heh? I could've wrote that outlook.

In their defense so many of these come and go, not just in one year, but over the course of many years, it's best not to write War & Peace for every wave out there, esp. while we have a hurricane with the eyewall on the coast as we speak (er type...). They got bigger fish to fry at the moment.

I realize that, but this is not no ordinary wave...have you seen this thing? I guess they're saving their award winning outlooks for the next week when this wave really gets going.

[cinlfla]

Looks like there is a good bit of convection with 95l, is it possible we could have a depression in the morning?

[skysummit]

Looks like there is a good bit of convection with 95l, is it possible we could have a depression in the morning?

I'll put my money on tomorrow night. It's really looking great right now. All day today it's been looking better and better.

[jasons2k]

10:30pm TWO:

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THIS LARGE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Wow....they really get into it heh? I could've wrote that outlook.

In their defense so many of these come and go, not just in one year, but over the course of many years, it's best not to write War & Peace for every wave out there, esp. while we have a hurricane with the eyewall on the coast as we speak (er type...). They got bigger fish to fry at the moment.

I realize that, but this is not no ordinary wave...have you seen this thing? I guess they're saving their award winning outlooks for the next week when this wave really gets going.

I do think this one will develop....but we have definitely had our fair share of 'monster' waves this year that fizzled.