Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

This is definitely a "wait and see" storm.

Yep. Also, influencing factors such as shear, the ridge and the trough MUST BE MONITORED as well, because they and other factors will probably have a BIG INFLUENCE on this system. Follow influencing conditions and you can forecast INVEST.95L... not perfectly, but better.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Large area of storms associated with 95L.
We'll have to see if it lasts

[greeng13]

i noticed one scenario has it into the carolinas...i'm not getting hyped up/worried or anything at all yet...

but would the fact that ophelia has stuck around so long make it either more or less of a possibility? (and why? or why not? as i am trying to learn here)....

also another question: would the fact of "o" having done/and still doing the same make it a weaker storm if it does track that way (i.e. due to the upwelling "o" has caused)?

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N42W. THE
SYSTEM COVERS A LARGE GEOGRAPHICAL AREA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 39W-48W.

8 PM discussion.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050915 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050915 0000 050915 1200 050916 0000 050916 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.9N 45.1W 9.2N 46.9W 9.5N 48.9W 9.8N 50.9W
BAMM 8.9N 45.1W 9.3N 47.2W 9.9N 49.0W 10.8N 50.6W
A98E 8.9N 45.1W 9.0N 47.8W 9.3N 50.5W 9.6N 53.1W
LBAR 8.9N 45.1W 9.3N 47.6W 9.9N 50.4W 10.3N 53.4W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050917 0000 050918 0000 050919 0000 050920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.4N 52.5W 12.0N 54.4W 13.3N 55.5W 15.0N 56.3W
BAMM 11.9N 51.5W 14.3N 52.1W 16.2N 52.2W 18.8N 53.1W
A98E 9.5N 55.4W 10.4N 59.4W 11.1N 63.2W 12.7N 66.5W
LBAR 10.9N 56.5W 12.7N 61.3W 14.4N 64.2W 14.5N 65.0W
SHIP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 84KTS
DSHP 58KTS 70KTS 80KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.9N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 42.6W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 39.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models.

[skysummit]

cycloneye....when you guys get these text models, do you actually plot them on maps, or do you input them into some program that'll give you a graphic?

[cycloneye]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

[skysummit]

I know where to get the text output, but what I'm asking is do you manually plot those coordinates on a map, do you input them into a program, or do you know lats and longs so good, you can actually picture the graphic in your mind by simply looking at the text.

[Rainband]

i noticed one scenario has it into the carolinas...i'm not getting hyped up/worried or anything at all yet...

but would the fact that ophelia has stuck around so long make it either more or less of a possibility? (and why? or why not? as i am trying to learn here)....

also another question: would the fact of "o" having done/and still doing the same make it a weaker storm if it does track that way (i.e. due to the upwelling "o" has caused)?

??? It's not even a system yet. What scenario?? Just curious.

[cycloneye]

I know where to get the text output, but what I'm asking is do you manually plot those coordinates on a map, do you input them into a program, or do you know lats and longs so good, you can actually picture the graphic in your mind by simply looking at the text.

What I do is copy and paste the text and that is it.

[Coredesat]

Map:

[Three Blind Mice]

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[cycloneye]

Wow look at GFDL the red line at graphic.Already it's off the point tonight as it is more to the east of 45w where the low is.

[WindRunner]

Generally, we use either the above SFWMD map from http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.htmlor a ColState plot for the models. Storm 2k has one, as does http://skeetobiteweather.com/

[skysummit]

Ok....I have many bookmarks where I get graphics from and text from. What I'm getting at, is do you find the text output any useful, or do you normally just wait for a graphic output?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This thing is looking really potent. That convection is just wild.
IMO this thing could really blow up in the next few days.

[cjrciadt]

95L and the entire Atlantic.

[Rainband]

This thing is looking really potent. That convection is just wild.
IMO this thing could really blow up in the next few days.

That would be good for the US. If it develops faster it should not affect us. Weakness in high is forecast

[Scorpion]

But its far south.... and the high doesn't look that weak.

[MiamiensisWx]

But its far south.... and the high doesn't look that weak.

A strong trough that is coming through may weaken the ridge. Several models indicate this. Also, if it misses the trough once it is north of the Lesser Antilles and continues westward, it might have trouble strengthening since shear - over time - is expected to increase in Florida and the Bahamas, resulting in unfavorable conditions in that general area.