Tropical Storm Ophelia

[truballer#1]

Oh, Oh, Oo-Phel-Ia
Your breaking my heart
Carolina coast is getting torn apart

Get it ooo-ver
This is get-ting old Girl!

I agree!

seems forever being over ocean

[Regit]

pressure are down 5mb in less than 4 hours and it is likely to keep dropping and she just might get to 85mph before landfall!!!

That's assuming there's a landfall. Looking at the latest radar and sat pics, she looks to be going NNE already. If the NE turn is happening sooner than expected, landfall may be avoided. Of course, it hard to go by the 5PM since the discussion said NNW for a while and the forecast suggests NNE immediately.

NNE? Where do you see that? I've been watching the radars for the entire day and don't see a NNE movement... can you show us a visual track? Perhaps I've been looking at the colors too long

Looking at ILM long range radar and the vis, looked like a few jogs to the NNE... however, it jogged back to the W a little, so that apparently wasn't a turn, but still could signal the beginning of a trend. That being said, I DON'T see the W side of the storm being pressed in as if it were being pushed Eastward. I wish the stupid storm would form a good eye already to make it easier to track.

[beenthru6]

The weather channel has adjusted their cone even further east now, but the direction still says nnw. Hmmm.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA INCHES TOWARD THE COASTLINE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO
SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT
NORTH OF OREGON INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...AND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH... AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK...AND AN ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA
IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
RELATIVELY LARGE EXTENT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THE HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

MAXIMUM COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10
FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...32.7 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[shaggy]

still concerned here as now saying it could really be bad rain maker even tho we have had a bad drought the last 6 weeks or so.The pressure drop and flight level winds need to be watched the next few hours to see if she makes a run at intensifying.


Only imagine what would have happened had she not upwelled herself and sucked in that dry air she might have been a bad one for us!

[truballer#1]

we need the rain here in se pa. hasnt rain over a week and half

[shaggy]

from the 8pm advisory some interesting and confusing comments!!!!!!!


Ophelia is moving to the north-northwest near 3 mph... and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn to
the north is expected on Wednesday. However...steering currents
remain weak...and an erratic motion is likely.


if the turn to the north isn't expected until tomorrow then why have the first plot at 5pm to the NE of its current spot?She is suppose to be moving onshore tomorrow and if she continues NNW with a turn to the N then how can she be that far east in track forecast?

next point of interest is the windfield!!!!

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles. Because of the slow motion of the hurricane and the
relatively large extent of hurricane force winds...the hurricane
force winds will reach the coast well in advance of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft was 985 mb...29.09 inches.

hurricane force winds now extend out to 50 miles when the official forecast at 5pm says they will only extend out 30 from the center.Maybe stronger winds over a broader area of the coastline and inland?

[Okibeach]

[quote="ncdowneast"]from the 8pm advisory some interesting and confusing comments!!!!!!!


"Ophelia is moving to the north-northwest near 3 mph... and this
general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn to
the north is expected on Wednesday. However...steering currents
remain weak...and an erratic motion is likely.


if the turn to the north isn't expected until tomorrow then why have the first plot at 5pm to the NE of its current spot?She is suppose to be moving onshore tomorrow and if she continues NNW with a turn to the N then how can she be that far east in track forecast?"

Someone noted this part after the 5pm, I can't figure that out at all. Thought maybe it was just from a difference in timing between the track upgrade and the actual advisory. I thought the 8p.m advisory would have shown a different motion. Still confused as ever.

[storms in NC]

Okay tell me if it is 32.7N and 78.2W tell how it is going to miss Wilm?
Wilm is 34.2N and 77.9W. Just asking? it is passed wilm to the west now.

[webke]

Has anyone noticed that ophelia seems to be stationary for the last couple of loops on the satellite, or are my eyes just getting tired..

[bartman]

Do you all think she will still go into Wilm. then turn north? I am not home and worried about my family. I live 40 miles northeast of Wilm. I am in La helping out.

Deb

First, God bless you for your direct support contribution to the victims of Katrina. Wallace will see heavy rainfall and steady winds for awhile of around 60MPH or so. All the guidance is betting on "O" as an offshore coast-hugger. The center of "O" should pass about 50 mi to the SE of Wallace. At that distance, Wallace will certainly get some high winds, but be spared the hurricane force winds. BTW, Wallace is 40 mi due north of Wilmington.

[webke]

Is Ophelias eye finally opening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[greeng13]

Is Ophelias eye finally opening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm no expert so don't hold me to this but that is a visible satellite loop and it is now dark outside which might explain the difference in the "visible"

[storms in NC]

Do you all think she will still go into Wilm. then turn north? I am not home and worried about my family. I live 40 miles northeast of Wilm. I am in La helping out.

Deb

First, God bless you for your direct support contribution to the victims of Katrina. Wallace will see heavy rainfall and steady winds for awhile of around 60MPH or so. All the guidance is betting on "O" as an offshore coast-hugger. The center of "O" should pass about 50 mi to the SE of Wallace. At that distance, Wallace will certainly get some high winds, but be spared the hurricane force winds. BTW, Wallace is 40 mi due north of Wilmington.

Thank so much. But I am northeast of Wilm I live 15 miles or so out side of Wallace like if you were going to Jacksonville 20 miles from there.I live out on HWY 41east of I 40

[bartman]

Do you all think she will still go into Wilm. then turn north? I am not home and worried about my family. I live 40 miles northeast of Wilm. I am in La helping out.

Deb

First, God bless you for your direct support contribution to the victims of Katrina. Wallace will see heavy rainfall and steady winds for awhile of around 60MPH or so. All the guidance is betting on "O" as an offshore coast-hugger. The center of "O" should pass about 50 mi to the SE of Wallace. At that distance, Wallace will certainly get some high winds, but be spared the hurricane force winds. BTW, Wallace is 40 mi due north of Wilmington.

Thank so much. But I am northeast of Wilm I live 15 miles or so out side of Wallace like if you were going to Jacksonville 20 miles from there.I live out on HWY 41east of I 40

I stand corrected.

[webke]

Is Ophelias eye finally opening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm no expert so don't hold me to this but that is a visible satellite loop and it is now dark outside which might explain the difference in the "visible"

It shows up the same on the infared.

[spinfan4eva]

Is Ophelias eye finally opening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm no expert so don't hold me to this but that is a visible satellite loop and it is now dark outside which might explain the difference in the "visible"

It shows up the same on the infared.

At nite, the visible is the Infrared just without the color

[bartman]

Okay tell me if it is 32.7N and 78.2W tell how it is going to miss Wilm?
Wilm is 34.2N and 77.9W. Just asking? it is passed wilm to the west now.

You're correct on the coordinates for the ILM area. However, the current position (center) of "O" is south (i.e., 32.7N vs. 34.2N) and ever so slightly west (i.e, -78.2W vs. -77.9W). A forward movement to the NNE will have it brush by ILM to the east by just 10-20 miles.

[webke]

Is Ophelias eye finally opening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I'm no expert so don't hold me to this but that is a visible satellite loop and it is now dark outside which might explain the difference in the "visible"

It shows up the same on the infared.

At nite, the visible is the Infrared just without the color

I never knew that thanks for the info.

[greeng13]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

don't know....even with the color...maybe?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.kltx.shtml

or is it open to the southeast?