Tropical Storm Ophelia

[Swimdude]

Ophelia is actually much LESS hyped than expected, and painfully boring to track.

[cycloneye]

13/1745 UTC 32.5N 78.0W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean


If SSD dvorak sat estimate is correct Ophelia is a hurricane again.

[oneness]

Was surprised it was not declared a Cat 1 at 2 PM ... I mean, the convection and rapid band development going on and the visibly faster rotation of inner bands on radar ... guess they just didn't have the numbers

[hurricanefreak1988]

Hey, at least the winds here will be fun to watch. I could do without the gray skies I'm seeing right now, though.

[webke]

Bud,
Can you tell me what station you were watching.
Thanks
Ken

[krysof]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 6_sat.html


I don't know why but the eye frightens me, it looks like an evil eye.

[shaggy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


this last frame is of concern for me since if you zoom in and look you will see the dry air on the west side and then suddenly a decent flareup begins right over the dry air.This may the the flare up that chokes out the intrusion and allows her to start dropping pressure.Current closest approach for me is 42 miles with 64knt winds 30 miles away from the center on the NW side and 50knt winds out 50 miles.So we will have to wait and see just what i get here.

[whereverwx]

Ophelia looks very similar to Tropical Storm Gustav back in 2002.

[stormynorfolk]

Looks like the big 'black hole' is shrinking...

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kltx.shtml

Also see some red showing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

[cycloneye]

653
WTNT21 KNHC 132030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z TUE SEP 13 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW
IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[MBismyPlayground]

Alright, maybe I need glasses but this still looks west to me on radar.

Our local MET just said that!!!!!And its due south of Calibash,NC

I just got in from the beach for the 2nd time today.....3rd ave S area...water way way up. Strong winds, actually stood there and watched this large band move in. Could actually see the wind and rain far out and then poof it was on. Seeing some more beach errosion... Last night, was up past the dunes.

[stormynorfolk]

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[cycloneye]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

...OPHELIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINA COASTS...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO VIRGINIA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE NOW
IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...
INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6
NORTH... LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... STEERING
CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND
OPHELIA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER. OPHELIA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE CENTER...ROUGHLY 50 TO 60 MILES...AND THESE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...
NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH A GUST TO 65 MPH...WHILE NOAA BUOY
41013 LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA. A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO
10 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEADS OF BAYS AND RIVERS.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...32.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[beenthru6]

Alright, maybe I need glasses but this still looks west to me on radar.

Our local MET just said that!!!!!And its due south of Calibash,NC

I just got in from the beach for the 2nd time today.....3rd ave S area...water way way up. Strong winds, actually stood there and watched this large band move in. Could actually see the wind and rain far out and then poof it was on. Seeing some more beach errosion... Last night, was up past the dunes.

I have to go in to work tonight around 12:30 Ought to be interesting trying to put papers out on the Ocean front condos in 50 mph winds. My husband just called and said he was waiting on the word from the city of Myrtle Beach EOC to see what they are going to do.

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 132058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005

DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE HIGHEST RECON 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 76 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND DOPPLER
VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN AS HIGH AS 80 KT AT 9900
FEET IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT
68-72 KT SURFACE WINDS AND MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...
THESE HIGHER-LEVEL WIND VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VERY CLOSE TO
NOAA BUOY 41004...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
43 KT. SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DECREASED DURING THE DAY
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY SOME LOCALIZED SMALL PATCHES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
BENEATH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345 DEGREES AT 3-4 KT OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION HAS TIGHTENED UP
SOMEWHAT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN LESS WOBBLE ALONG
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD...WHILE 18Z SPECIAL UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE
CAROLINAS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOT
ERODED AS QUICKLY AS THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING. AS A
RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE OPHELIA MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE LARGE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA
COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER OPHELIA CLEARS
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
CAUSE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL OPHELIA TRANSITIONS INTO A FORMIDABLE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 32.6N 78.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 33.3N 77.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 77.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 35.2N 76.1W 65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND
48HR VT 15/1800Z 35.7N 74.7W 65 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 16/1800Z 37.8N 70.7W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 42.5N 62.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.5N 49.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[houmaMel]

Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 30


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 13, 2005



data from satellites...NOAA coastal Doppler radars...and an Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate Ophelia has continued to
slowly become better organized as inner core convection has
increased in both coverage and intensity. The highest recon 700 mb
flight-level has been 76 kt in the northwest quadrant...and Doppler
velocity data from Wilmington has been as high as 80 kt at 9900
feet in the northwest quadrant. These values would normally support
68-72 kt surface winds and make Ophelia a hurricane. However...
these higher-level wind values have been observed very close to
NOAA buoy 41004...which has only been reporting sustained winds of
43 kt. Since the central pressure has not decreased during the day
...The initial intensity is being maintained at 60 kt...although
there may some localized small patches of hurricane-force winds
beneath the stronger winds aloft.

The initial motion estimate is 345 degrees at 3-4 kt over the past
12 hours. The inner core wind field and convection has tightened up
somewhat since this morning and there has been less wobble along
the north-northwest track. Water vapor imagery indicates the
mid-level ridge axis over the New England states has continued to
move gradually eastward...while 18z special upper-air data from the
Carolinas indicates the southern portion of the ridge has not
eroded as quickly as the 12z global models were forecasting. As a
result...the official forecast is a little to the left of the model
consensus through 24 hours...and then a little to the right of the
guidance after 72 hours as westerly mid-level flow is expected to
drive Ophelia more to the east at higher latitudes by days 4 and 5.

The large inner-core wind field and relatively cool SSTs should
prevent significant strengthening from occurring. However...the
upper-level outflow is expected to remain favorable for the next 48
hours...so some modest strengthening is still possible and Ophelia
could peak at 70 kt before landfall occurs. After Ophelia clears
the North Carolina Outer Banks...increasing westerly shear should
cause slow weakening until Ophelia transitions into a formidable
extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic.

Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/2100z 32.6n 78.1w 60 kt
12hr VT 14/0600z 33.3n 77.8w 65 kt
24hr VT 14/1800z 34.3n 77.2w 65 kt
36hr VT 15/0600z 35.2n 76.1w 65 kt...inland/Pamlico Sound
48hr VT 15/1800z 35.7n 74.7w 65 kt...over water
72hr VT 16/1800z 37.8n 70.7w 60 kt
96hr VT 17/1800z 42.5n 62.5w 55 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 18/1800z 48.5n 49.5w 45 kt...extratropical
$$

[SouthFloridawx]

I think "O" is starting to get angry. She's looking better this afternoon and she's starting to tighten that eye up. I'd watch this for rapid development in the next 24 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

[shaggy]

has anyone noticed that the next plot on the forecast map is to the NE of the current position?This is confusing because they say a NNW motion at 3-4 knts is expected for the next 24 hours so how can the next plot be to the NE of its current position?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... shtml?5day

just not sure how they got that track!?!