Tropical Storm Ophelia

superfly · #1281 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:40 pm

Overall motion is NW, no need to analyze every single frame.

SCHawkFan · #1282 Postby **SCHawkFan** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:44 pm

Boy the activity really picked up on here once the storm started to move. It's great to have the directional debates raging once again.

#1283 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:49 pm

don't ya love them....im ready to get this thing on radar...like a good general idea of the center.....but, we all see what we see

shaggy · #1284 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:53 pm

now the concern is when/if she makes the turn north how much further west does it shift because a west shift brings the center much closer to me.Currently it is forecast to be 55 miles east of me in 72 hours.My sustained winds are forecast to be mid 40's with higher gust and if it tracks further west then my winds would likely be higher than that.Then the question remains what effect does the gulfstream have on her as she is appearing to fire some low topped convection near and around the center!

#1285 Postby **sponger** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:53 pm

Looks solid west! Imagine if this hits ga sc border. Unlikely but its moving at a real decent clip now.

txwatcher91 · #1286 Postby **txwatcher91** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:56 pm

ncdowneast wrote:now the concern is when/if she makes the turn north how much further west does it shift because a west shift brings the center much closer to me.Currently it is forecast to be 55 miles east of me in 72 hours.My sustained winds are forecast to be mid 40's with higher gust and if it tracks further west then my winds would likely be higher than that.Then the question remains what effect does the gulfstream have on her as she is appearing to fire some low topped convection near and around the center!

Well, she appers to be strengthening and firing convection over the center. If it turned north right now, we would be extremely close to the eyewall and get sustained winds of near 50-70 depending on her strength. We just have to wait and see. Click on GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative. Appears to be still going NW.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

#1287 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:58 pm

i just noticed SC is NOT even in the cone of terror....a landfall there is not given...but, man...would that be a major booboo??

beenthru6 · #1288 Postby **beenthru6** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 2:59 pm

Looks like TWC has finally acknowledged that there is the possibility of Ophelia coming in in northern SC. Steve Lyons just mentioned the westward movement and the fact that SC may get the landfall, but he also said that the north turn should be happening "any time now". It better hurry up :lol:

superfly · #1289 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:02 pm

Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

shaggy · #1290 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:03 pm

i would have to say this is the most challenging storm in a while with regards to overall forecast error.Must be a frustrating storm for the NHC seeing some senators from LA tried to put the blame on them for katrina hitting NOLA. SC needs to watch for that turn! and we all need to watch for any pressure drops!

txwatcher91 · #1291 Postby **txwatcher91** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:08 pm

superfly wrote:Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

Actuall, the dry air has been retreating some and the outflow improving IMHO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#1292 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:10 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
superfly wrote:Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

Actuall, the dry air has been retreating some and the outflow improving IMHO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that a slightly southwest jog at the end that I'm seeing or do I need my eyes checked?

-Andrew92

beenthru6 · #1293 Postby **beenthru6** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:12 pm

With the history of Ophelia not being able to really get her act together, is it really within the realm of possibility that she could get much stronger? I have been reading posts about the possibility of her going to a two and I even saw someone's post about the possibility of a cat 3 :think:

I really think that is reaching. Isn't much room left for her to even get to 85mph, let alone higher.

txwatcher91 · #1294 Postby **txwatcher91** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:16 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
superfly wrote:Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

Actuall, the dry air has been retreating some and the outflow improving IMHO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that a slightly southwest jog at the end that I'm seeing or do I need my eyes checked?

-Andrew92

You need your eyes checked :wink:

No, it is moving slightly north of west right now.

#1295 Postby **ncbird** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:23 pm

beenthru6 wrote:With the history of Ophelia not being able to really get her act together, is it really within the realm of possibility that she could get much stronger? I have been reading posts about the possibility of her going to a two and I even saw someone's post about the possibility of a cat 3 I really think that is reaching. Isn't much room left for her to even get to 85mph, let alone higher.

I really don't see her getting to a cat 2... maybe back up to a cat 1 when she goes across the warmer gulf. I am waiting to see the 5pm update to see if they have moved her track and time table. Packing up some things to move to safer shelter. Live in trailer and have no intentions of riding her out as a cat 1 or TS.... rather be safe than sorry.

#1296 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:26 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
superfly wrote:Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

Actuall, the dry air has been retreating some and the outflow improving IMHO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that a slightly southwest jog at the end that I'm seeing or do I need my eyes checked?

-Andrew92

You need your eyes checked No, it is moving slightly north of west right now.

OK, after a review, it is still moving just north of due west. Maybe it just seemed southwest because it's moving so slow.

Stupid storm....I'm beginning to think Ophelia is drunk!

-Andrew92

whereverwx · #1297 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:28 pm

Andrew92 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
superfly wrote:Just about ready to hit the Gulf Stream now but there is so much dry air intrusion that it may not matter.

Actuall, the dry air has been retreating some and the outflow improving IMHO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Is that a slightly southwest jog at the end that I'm seeing or do I need my eyes checked?

-Andrew92

You need your eyes checked No, it is moving slightly north of west right now.

OK, after a review, it is still moving just north of due west. Maybe it just seemed southwest because it's moving so slow.

Stupid storm....I'm beginning to think Ophelia is drunk!

-Andrew92

Lucky she is not behind the wheel. :wink:

HurricaneGirl · #1298 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:28 pm

I think I'm losing my marbles. :roll:

#1299 Postby **ncbird** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:32 pm

Stupid storm....I'm beginning to think Ophelia is drunk!

OK... who flew in there and seeded her with the booze?? :wink:

Website · #1300 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 12, 2005 3:45 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z MON SEP 12 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTAL REGION
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OPHELIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 240SE 225SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.3N 77.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 41.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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