CME Update/ Very Strange????

[Jim Hughes]

The ACE data is very contaminated. SWEPAM data is always unreliable during proton events but MAG data is usually fairly reliable.

If the MAG data is corrrect than we have just seen one of the smallest transients that I have ever monitored this solar cycle. The total field strength of the IMF is not currently strong enough to sustain a strong geomagnetic event if the data is reliable.

This data is either contaminated or we just barely got nicked by this CME and while it looked impressive for about an hour it has since leveled off quite quickly.

At the very least it may have parted the RED SEA. In other words it may have lessened the upcoming blows ahead. The downstream winds are very important and this CME has quickened the downstream flow there by lessening the upcoming wave action of the IMF brought upon by the upcoming upstream flow/CME.

The upcoming CME's can defintely still cause severe storming but it's a little like Katrina/New Orleans. The situation was and is terrible but things could have been much worse if Katrina had not jogged east at the very end.


Jim

[Big-Iguana]

Shockwave from the X-17 hit at 1310 UTC



Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation
http://www2.nict.go.jp/dk/c232/realtime/

G5 storm tonight? Can't recall ever seeing so many back to back X-class flares intermingled with C's and M's in such a short time frame.

[Aslkahuna]

This region is popping off X-class events like some active regions pop off C's. I think we'd have to go back a long way (possibly 1989 or 91) to see a region that has been popping off so many X's in such a short time. Kitt Peak was clear for a while this morning so we have our first look at the mag fields of the region. Very strong mag fields and shear with several deltas indicated and reversed polarity in the trailing half. Now if we can add some rotation, then we'll really have a pressure cooker. We'll need white light and Position Angle measurements on the spots to determine that. Cloudy here so no observations possible.

Steve

[Big-Iguana]

X-class 6.2
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_e ... _1913.html

Latest events-main page:
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Proton flux will be off the charts at this rate.

Sunpsot 10808 S09E56 BETA-GAMMA - 5000% change in last 24 hrs.
Zurich Sunspot Class HSX
(beta-delta area was 1100 at midnight)

Nice image of 10808 (the old 10798)
http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2005/09sep05/seip1.jpg

Big Bear white light at 17:33UT
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Images/daily/images/wfull.jpg

[Jim Hughes]

This region is popping off X-class events like some active regions pop off C's. I think we'd have to go back a long way (possibly 1989 or 91) to see a region that has been popping off so many X's in such a short time. Kitt Peak was clear for a while this morning so we have our first look at the mag fields of the region. Very strong mag fields and shear with several deltas indicated and reversed polarity in the trailing half. Now if we can add some rotation, then we'll really have a pressure cooker. We'll need white light and Position Angle measurements on the spots to determine that. Cloudy here so no observations possible.

Steve

Well Region 486 let quite few rip back in Oct-Nov 2003 but they were spread out over about 10-12 days. It did unleash that biggie X28 with a two others... X8 & X10 within about 48-72 hours but then it weakened and went across the western limb.

March 89' also had big ones as you well know...more smaller events... but they were also well spread out.

Now June 91' had maybe five X10 or above but that was spread out over some 7-10 days.


This may end up the winner if it keeps up. Amazing!


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Shockwave from the X-17 hit at 1310 UTC



Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation
http://www2.nict.go.jp/dk/c232/realtime/

G5 storm tonight? Can't recall ever seeing so many back to back X-class flares intermingled with C's and M's in such a short time frame.

Storming should be limited to major status at most with the slight possibility of severe at higer latitudes and that would be brief. Mid latitudes are probably looking at minor storming with isolated majors and they should be brief.

Steve may think differently.

Now another CME arrival could change things instantly.


BTW Big Iguana ....going out to dinner.... will be home later and post something about Ophelia and this space weather activity. I think she has the potential to really get stronger in the upcoming days.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, more post analysis on that November 4, 2003 Flare resulted in it being upgraded to X44. I was lucky on that one as I got to see it at max with H-Alpha. Unfortunately, we are cloudy today and I have to be in Tucson tomorrow so it won't be until Sunday that I can get on the Sun and start observations.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

X-class 6.2
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_e ... _1913.html

Latest events-main page:
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Proton flux will be off the charts at this rate.

Sunpsot 10808 S09E56 BETA-GAMMA - 5000% change in last 24 hrs.
Zurich Sunspot Class HSX
(beta-delta area was 1100 at midnight)

Nice image of 10808 (the old 10798)
http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2005/09sep05/seip1.jpg

Big Bear white light at 17:33UT
http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Images/daily/images/wfull.jpg

You got all the right URl's ..glad to see you on board BI...Could use another space weather enthusiast around here. Especially one trying to find weather/climate relationships.

Geomagnetic storming has not been that bad so far. Things looked bad initially but the magnetic field handled to first blow rather well. This might have been mixed in with a sector change also. It was due.


Jim

[Big-Iguana]

Yeah, we just got the edge of the X-17, and as 808 rolls around it's going to get real intense, if she keeps popping off like she has been.

The last X-6.2 should get here on the 11th.

Ace has been inaccurate with the solar wind speed, been watching MTOF.
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/flare/

Here's an interesting connection:

Ozone levels drop when hurricanes are strengthening
Zou and Wu noticed that over 100 miles, the area of a hurricane typically has low levels of ozone from the surface to the top of the hurricane. Whenever a hurricane intensifies, it appears that the ozone levels throughout the storm decrease. When they looked at the storm with ozone data a hurricane's eye becomes very clear. Because forecasters always try to pinpoint the eye of the hurricane, this knowledge will help with locating the exact position and lead to better tracking.
http://www.physorg.com/news4436.html

Solar Storms Destroy Ozone, Study Reconfirms
When the sun's protons hit the atmosphere they break up molecules of nitrogen gas and water vapor. When nitrogen gas molecules split apart, they can create molecules, called nitrogen oxides, which can last several weeks to months depending on where they end up in the atmosphere. Once formed, the nitrogen oxides react quickly with ozone and reduce its amounts. When atmospheric winds blow them down into the middle stratosphere, they can stay there for months, and continue to keep ozone at a reduced level.

Protons similarly affect water vapor molecules by breaking them up into forms where they react with ozone. However, these molecules, called hydrogen oxides, only last during the time period of the solar proton event. These short-term effects of hydrogen oxides can destroy up to 70 percent of the ozone in the middle mesosphere. At the same time, longer-term ozone loss caused by nitrogen oxides destroys a maximum of about nine percent of the ozone in the upper stratosphere. Only a few percent of total ozone is in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere with over 80 percent in the middle and lower stratosphere.

"If you look at the total atmospheric column, from your head on up to the top of the atmosphere, this solar proton event depleted less than one percent of the total ozone in the Northern Hemisphere," Jackman said.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 080620.htm


All weather starts at the sun!

[Jim Hughes]

Yeah, we just got the edge of the X-17, and as 808 rolls around it's going to get real intense, if she keeps popping off like she has been.

The last X-6.2 should get here on the 11th.

Ace has been inaccurate with the solar wind speed, been watching MTOF.
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/flare/

Here's an interesting connection:

Ozone levels drop when hurricanes are strengthening
Zou and Wu noticed that over 100 miles, the area of a hurricane typically has low levels of ozone from the surface to the top of the hurricane. Whenever a hurricane intensifies, it appears that the ozone levels throughout the storm decrease. When they looked at the storm with ozone data a hurricane's eye becomes very clear. Because forecasters always try to pinpoint the eye of the hurricane, this knowledge will help with locating the exact position and lead to better tracking.
http://www.physorg.com/news4436.html

Solar Storms Destroy Ozone, Study Reconfirms
When the sun's protons hit the atmosphere they break up molecules of nitrogen gas and water vapor. When nitrogen gas molecules split apart, they can create molecules, called nitrogen oxides, which can last several weeks to months depending on where they end up in the atmosphere. Once formed, the nitrogen oxides react quickly with ozone and reduce its amounts. When atmospheric winds blow them down into the middle stratosphere, they can stay there for months, and continue to keep ozone at a reduced level.

Protons similarly affect water vapor molecules by breaking them up into forms where they react with ozone. However, these molecules, called hydrogen oxides, only last during the time period of the solar proton event. These short-term effects of hydrogen oxides can destroy up to 70 percent of the ozone in the middle mesosphere. At the same time, longer-term ozone loss caused by nitrogen oxides destroys a maximum of about nine percent of the ozone in the upper stratosphere. Only a few percent of total ozone is in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere with over 80 percent in the middle and lower stratosphere.

"If you look at the total atmospheric column, from your head on up to the top of the atmosphere, this solar proton event depleted less than one percent of the total ozone in the Northern Hemisphere," Jackman said.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 080620.htm


All weather starts at the sun!

Well she kept popping today...two more X's...not as big but they had to weaken some...Still does not mean she will not unleash another >X5 again. Magnetograms still show plenty of magnetic complexity...BGD configuration..


Yeah I have read the article that you are referring to about the ozone relationship with hurricanes . Nobody was as mad as me when TOVS went down a while back . I use to always look at that for storm forecasting. Winter ones also. I was talking about that methodology in the old TWC forum back on Compuserve....97...98..Ozone changes are important in my opinion.

I know about SOHO/MTOF and I like it's charts for quick looks and I also like the WIND satellite data but I have always found ACE to be the most reliable for my methodology.....maybe orbit...they will show different data....not much but different.

Looks like we just got hit by a CME... not sure how hard ...SOHO not showing it yet but the magnometers are. Might be a strong sudden impulse.

[senorpepr]

I was talking about that methodology in the old TWC forum back on Compuserve....97...98..Ozone changes are important in my opinion.

Ah-hah! I thought that is where I remembered you from. Ahh... the TWC Forum on Compuserve. I was there from 95-99. I also spent a good deal of time as a SysOp at AForum.

[Jim Hughes]

I was talking about that methodology in the old TWC forum back on Compuserve....97...98..Ozone changes are important in my opinion.

Ah-hah! I thought that is where I remembered you from. Ahh... the TWC Forum on Compuserve. I was there from 95-99. I also spent a good deal of time as a SysOp at AForum.

Yeah I was a daily regular between maybe 2/96- through mid to late 99'.....that's where I met Alskahuna/Steve .....things went downhill and I stopped posting stuff.... Forum self destructed from within...management.

I used to post a daily solar activity report there during most of 1997 and 1998. I Use to drop by the scimath forum occasionally. We may have discussed things. Was your handle the same?

The old TWC forum was quite different from todays as you well know. Those were the days when the Internet was being pushed and their OCM's actually joined in on conferences every once in a while.

I remember them having a weather summit at Steamboat Springs and they had some guests ...Ants Leetma was one...

I kind of threw him some curves regarding space weather and climate. He responded politely but sort of dodged the question...effecting El Nino etc....


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Current ap/K is 300/9- . I was one of the SYSOPS on the TWCForum from 1995-2000 and along with Marc Mailhot we handled the Tropics Section and I also did the Space Weather Board. I still remember talking a woman in NC through the eye passage of Hurricane Fran during an online chat.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Current ap/K is 300/9- . I was one of the SYSOPS on the TWCForum from 1995-2000 and along with Marc Mailhot we handled the Tropics Section and I also did the Space Weather Board. I still remember talking a woman in NC through the eye passage of Hurricane Fran during an online chat.

Steve

I was so tired I just went to bed. But I did step outside between 12-1am ....nothing . SOHO was even starting to get effected by the proton event....broken lines showed winds had shot up to almost 1,000 km/sec...magnometer suggested strong shock..ACE MAG data did not show things well either...it should be flagged also now. They tend to not do this but it's obviously being effected also in my opinion.

Things quieting down now....Boulder's 9-12z ap/kp indices were 192/7 respectively. This event is going to make long term forecasting...week/months down the road real tough...at least from my perspective.....I feel confident about an upcoming strong SOI phase but I have to figure out which one....look over data better.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Hard to say which X event that CME came from but we have one from yesterday's event on the way. The gemag peaked after midnight my time so you were in bed too early. Reports show it was visible in VA and even AZ (which I can attest to) though not horribly brightly here.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Yeah I was a daily regular between maybe 2/96- through mid to late 99'.....that's where I met Alskahuna/Steve .....things went downhill and I stopped posting stuff.... Forum self destructed from within...management.

I used to post a daily solar activity report there during most of 1997 and 1998. I Use to drop by the scimath forum occasionally. We may have discussed things. Was your handle the same?

The old TWC forum was quite different from todays as you well know. Those were the days when the Internet was being pushed and their OCM's actually joined in on conferences every once in a while.

I remember them having a weather summit at Steamboat Springs and they had some guests ...Ants Leetma was one...

I kind of threw him some curves regarding space weather and climate. He responded politely but sort of dodged the question...effecting El Nino etc....


Jim

I'm trying to remember my username from over there. I believe I used my real name, Mike Adcock. I mainly kept to the tropical forums.

Wow... that particular TWC Forum was on a different playing field than most forums today.

[Jim Hughes]

I'm trying to remember my username from over there. I believe I used my real name, Mike Adcock. I mainly kept to the tropical forums.

Wow... that particular TWC Forum was on a different playing field than most forums today.

You definitely used your real name because I remember it quite clearly. I can not recall what we ever discussed but I am sure we communicated at one time or another. Small world..or big I should say. Steve might remember you also. He was a SYSOP at TWC.

Yes that place was sort of special at the beginning. Most of the younger people who hang out there today have no idea how different it was. Sort of wish it had had storm2k's capability.... web wise ....but it was okay for back then.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Messed up.

[Aslkahuna]

Hard to imagine that just 10 years ago the Net as we know it today was not existant-it was still mainly for professionals. The online services of which CompuServe was the older were the hosts to the various fora and the TWCForum was, I believe, TWC's first foray into the online community. The success of that forum led them to develop their own site at weather.com as the Net became more popular. Of course modem speeds had something to do with it as well. When I joined Compuserve in 1989 we thought 1200 baud was just peachy (of course in those days you paid by the minute for your online service hence Off Line Readers were very popular. We've come a long way and now we have a Senator working for Inaccuweather who want's to send us back to the Stone Age as far as weather info on the Net is concerned. BTW I do remember your user name. I still have my Compuserve account because my homepage resides there.

Steve

[senorpepr]

Yup, I joined CompuServe in the mid-90s. The days of the 2400 baud modems. I remember downloading simple temperature graphics from TWCForum that would take a good minute to open. Now they pop up in a flash. Wow... so much has changed in such a little spread of time.

Yeah, Steve, I remember you from there as well. I really enjoyed reading your posts regarding WPac storms.