Ophelia Recon Reports

[Thunder44]

218
URNT11 KNHC 100001
97779 23544 60315 79418 15200 03036 16149 /2498
40230
RMK AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 03


Air Force Plane is out there now.

[nequad]

It will be interesting to see what they find. Satellite presentation is not impressive this evening. The convective tops have warmed significantly in the past few hours.

I wonder if it will be downgraded again...

[MiamiensisWx]

It will be interesting to see what they find. Satellite presentation is not impressive this evening. The convective tops have warmed significantly in the past few hours.

I wonder if it will be downgraded again...

I would not be surprised if it is downgraded. Since this storm is basically in the middle of a "tug-of-war zone", Ophelia will likely fluctuate between tropical storm and hurricane strength (strengthening and weakening continuously). There will probably be a lot of conflict with the ridging, dry air, shear, Ophelia and approaching ULL from the southeast.

[Derek Ortt]

pressure remains 983mb, highest FL wind so far was 65KT

waiting to get into the SW quad where the strongest winds have been

[Rainband]

pressure remains 983mb, highest FL wind so far was 65KT

waiting to get into the SW quad where the strongest winds have been

Interesting

[cjrciadt]

983 pressure, but barely a cane? I dont like low pressure gradient storms.

[Hyperstorm]

Can't believe this hasn't been posted yet...

000
URNT12 KNHC 100102
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/00:33:10Z
B. 30 deg 08 min N
077 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1284 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 019 deg 063 kt
G. 312 deg 054 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C/ 1530 m
J. 20 C/ 1521 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1235 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 63 KT W QUAD 00:16:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 120 / 2 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Windy]

983 pressure, but barely a cane? I dont like low pressure gradient storms.

Yes, this has been an interesting year in that regard. Don't low pressure-gradient storms with unusually low winds tend indicate storms with unusually wide windfields?

[artist]

000
URNT14 KNHC 100259
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01315 10759 12501 11616 17031
02313 20761 22498 21613 16028
03312 30763 32482 31713 14042
04310 40765 42458 41616 14054
05308 50767 52429 51515 14047
06306 60769 62378 61515 14051
MF307 M0767 MF062
OBS 01 AT 01:48:10Z
OBS 06 AT 02:12:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01302 10772 12374 11917 30034
02300 20774 22411 21817 30032
03299 30776 32444 31515 30043
04297 40778 42469 41715 30038
05295 50780 52482 51715 30035
06293 60783 62494 61813 31028
07292 70785 72504 71812 31025
MF298 M0777 MF048
OBS 01 AT 02:22:50Z
OBS 07 AT 02:51:30Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 12







Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 100450
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/04:20:40Z
B. 30 deg 46 min N
077 deg 07 min W
C. 850 mb 1289 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 205 deg 068 kt
G. 131 deg 048 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 17 C/ 1528 m
J. 20 C/ 1521 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1235 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 68 KT SE QUAD 04:05:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 142 / 11NM

[artist]

FIX DATE10
FIX TIME04:20:40 (Z) (edt) 24:20:40
LAT(deg) 30.77
LON (deg) 77.12
PRESSURE 983
(mb)
FL WIND
(mph) 78.2

[artist]

RMK AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 19

FIX DATE10
FIX TIME 0522 (Z) (edt)0122
LAT(deg) 30.00
LON (deg) 78.60
Wind Dir.
(deg) 340

FL WIND
(mph) 40.25
Aircraft Alt.
(ft)5020

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 100632
97779 06264 70321 75508 15300 16039 1616/ /2496
RMK AF302 1116A OPHELIA OB 23
LAST REPORT

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 101214
AF300 1216A OPHELIA HDOB 18 KNHC
1203. 3054N 07711W 01828 0015 308 042 152 152 043 01875 0000000100
1204 3055N 07710W 01829 0012 304 041 152 152 042 01872 0000000100
1204. 3057N 07708W 01828 0009 305 042 152 152 042 01868 0000000100
1205 3058N 07707W 01829 0005 308 045 142 142 048 01865 0000000100
1205. 3059N 07705W 01829 0001 313 047 142 142 048 01862 0000000100
1206 3100N 07704W 01829 5003 315 045 136 136 046 01857 0000000100
1206. 3101N 07703W 01830 5006 314 047 150 150 048 01856 0000000100
1207 3103N 07701W 01830 5011 310 047 158 158 047 01850 0000000100
1207. 3104N 07700W 01827 5015 309 048 162 162 048 01844 0000000100
1208 3105N 07659W 01829 5021 309 049 162 162 049 01840 0000000100
1208. 3106N 07657W 01827 5026 311 052 168 168 053 01833 0000000100
1209 3107N 07656W 01830 5032 309 055 168 168 056 01829 0000000100
1209. 3108N 07655W 01827 5039 310 051 174 174 053 01819 0000000000
1210 3110N 07653W 01828 5047 311 054 168 168 056 01813 0000000100
1210. 3111N 07652W 01832 5056 308 057 170 170 058 01808 0000000100
1211 3112N 07651W 01826 5068 304 062 180 180 065 01789 0000000100
1211. 3113N 07649W 01832 5077 301 066 190 190 066 01786 0000000000
1212 3115N 07648W 01826 5087 305 063 180 180 064 01770 0000000000
1212. 3116N 07646W 01827 5099 303 056 188 188 056 01760 0000000000
1213 3117N 07645W 01830 5109 300 055 184 184 056 01752 0000000000

[Derek Ortt]

holy bleep

976 based upon the latest vortex message

[cycloneye]

359
URNT12 KNHC 101234
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/12:18:00Z
B. 31 deg 32 min N
076 deg 35 min W
C. 850 mb 1234 m
D. 65 kt
E. 206 deg 013 nm
F. 301 deg 066 kt
G. 214 deg 022 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 18 C/ 1826 m
J. 21 C/ 1824 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1216A OPHELIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 66 KT SW QUAD 12:11:20 Z
GOOD BANDING. OVAL INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE 50 PERCENT FORMED 8 MILES DIAMETER

[Thunder44]

1227 3152N 07615W 01829 5043 133 074 134 134 075 01817 0000000100


75kts winds found in the NE Quad (suspect)

[Derek Ortt]

that equates to about 60 at the surface.

strongest winds are likely in the SE quad; however, an upgrade to hurricane is not yet justified until the winds actually are found

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 101234
AF300 1216A OPHELIA HDOB 20 KNHC
1223. 3145N 07625W 01833 5106 136 068 146 146 070 01759 0000000100
1224 3146N 07623W 01829 5096 137 066 146 146 066 01765 0000000100
1224. 3147N 07622W 01827 5085 137 068 142 142 069 01773 0000000100
1225 3148N 07621W 01828 5075 139 066 152 152 067 01784 0000000100
1225. 3149N 07619W 01829 5066 134 068 146 146 069 01794 0000000100
1226 3150N 07618W 01829 5059 133 073 140 140 073 01802 0000000100
1226. 3151N 07617W 01828 5052 135 069 136 136 070 01808 0000000100
1227 3152N 07615W 01829 5043 133 074 134 134 075 01817 0000000100
1227. 3153N 07614W 01827 5035 134 072 148 148 073 01824 0000000000
1228 3155N 07613W 01830 5026 134 069 140 140 069 01836 0000000100
1228. 3156N 07611W 01829 5019 135 069 134 134 070 01841 0000000100
1229 3157N 07610W 01827 5014 134 066 138 138 067 01845 0000000100
1229. 3158N 07609W 01832 5008 136 063 140 140 064 01855 0000000100
1230 3159N 07607W 01826 5002 135 062 144 144 062 01856 0000000100
1230. 3200N 07606W 01829 0003 136 059 146 146 061 01863 0000000100
1231 3201N 07605W 01828 0006 137 056 136 136 057 01865 0000000100
1231. 3202N 07603W 01830 0011 139 056 142 142 056 01872 0000000100
1232 3203N 07602W 01828 0014 142 055 138 138 056 01873 0000000100
1232. 3204N 07600W 01829 0017 143 055 140 140 056 01878 0000000100
1233 3206N 07559W 01831 0021 142 055 142 142 056 01883 0000000100



Highest wind 75.

[Hyperstorm]

Ophelia seems to be deepening due to baroclinicity.

Its overall small structure reminds me of Hurricane Irene in 1999, which deepened significantly when it was over that general area.

I believe that the winds have not yet responded due to there being less pressure gradient with the trough interconnecting it. As the ridge builds in, there will be more gradient and winds will certainly respond.

If subsidence to its west and northwest does moderate, this storm is likely to strengthen significantly due to its small and tight inner core structure.

Watch out Carolinas...

[Derek Ortt]

I dont think the tight inner-core is going to last

however, this deos seem to have a fairly large wind field based upon the large region of 50KT+ flight level winds. Could create tidal surge problems