Ophelia now an EC hurricane!

krysof · #1 Postby **krysof** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:32 pm

The carolinas may be in big trouble, latest discussion from the NHC at 11PM said that Ophelia may become a major hurricane, then again it may stay a Cat 1, the NHC does not know if or when the shear will weaken.

shaggy · #2 Postby **shaggy** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:02 pm

also says that none of the models have current motion in the forecast and that may trend them further north towards NC also!

Skywatch_NC · #3 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:07 pm

Cat 2 by Mon accdg to NHC :eek:

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:11 pm

Since its formation Ophelia has been a EC system.

#5 Postby **fci** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:12 pm

Skywatch_NC wrote:Cat 2 by Mon accdg to NHC

Or not.

It is looking worse, course and movement is problematic as it is faster than expected.
SST is lower than foreast and upwelling could occur in the Gulf Stream.

The discussion makes it sound like it could weaken more than expected or be a Cat 3.

They just don't know....

Skywatch_NC · #6 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:14 pm

All I know is we need rain bad here in SC and NC...

artist · #7 Postby **artist** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 11:18 pm

sounds as though they have no idea where it might go either due to none of the models picking up on its present position.

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:34 am

it will hit NC.

#9 Postby **fci** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:21 am

boca_chris wrote:it will hit NC.

Or graze the outer banks

My opinion, NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 1:23 am

People watch the storm as it moving northeastward. It is very hard to force a storm caught up like this one any where but out to sea. So this will likely be FISHY OPHELIA!!!

Thunder44 · #11 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:20 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:People watch the storm as it moving northeastward. It is very hard to force a storm caught up like this one any where but out to sea. So this will likely be FISHY OPHELIA!!!

You don't know what you are talking about. Every global model forecasts the trough currently steering Ophelia to bypass it and the ridge build back to it's north and then northwest, and would force the storm back towards the coast.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 3:25 am

I was looking at the Globals Gfs,Cmc,Ukmet,Nogaps all show this pulling a northwest to west-southwest track after 72 hours. We will have to see how far north before it turns.

krysof · #13 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:32 am

if it were to quickly turn now, the SC, GA border would be hit, that's if it were to be forced straight west, a little north of west would put it in southern of central SC

Ophelia now an EC hurricane!

Ophelia now an EC hurricane!

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