Short term outlook for Ophelia from my perspective

[Jim Hughes]

The following is NOT an offical forecastand should not be used as such.It is just the opinon of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorlogical data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products


I just got done looking at some satellite images after reading several posts after I got home this evening and it sure looks like Ophelia is a different storm this evening.

This turn around does not surprise and I would expect to see it continue throughout the next 8-12 hours. I am sure some pople might even be writing her off by tomorrow morning but Ophelia will make a comeback by tomorrrow's 11am discussion.

Of course things could change if we receive a CME impact from one of the many x-class flares during the previous 48 hours.

We are currently seeing some of the most intense flaring ever, Five X-class flares occurred within 40 hours and the region is still capable of producing more. Energetic particle levels are still rising at some levels and they are going to stay very high for the next 2-3 days and maybe longer if this increased flaring/eruptions keep occurring.

To give you an idea about what's happening space weather wise...I would almost compare it to having three major hurricanes out in the Atlantic and one or two of them are Cat 5's .

This activity has caused a huge increase in the ionization of the ionosphere. It is basically a powder keg right now and it is waiting to be released. When this happens Ophelia will strengthen much quicker than what the models are calling for if her baratropic environment is not that unfavorable.

Trust me it will take an awful lot of dry air and shear to hold her back.



Jim

[cinlfla]

If I am understanding you correctly What will help strengthen Ophelia is energy from five x-class flares that will increase in the ionization of the ionosphere. I don't know anything at all about Space-Weather but is does sound interesteing.

[NastyCat4]

Sounds like Star Trek to me.

[cinlfla]

No, its sounds like Science and is interesting imho.

[jrod]

X-flare energy or not, Ophelia has a LOT of dry air to its north west. If it does start to stregthen dramatically then I will be a believer of solar winds affecting Earth weather.

[cjrciadt]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2502.htm

[cinlfla]

X-flare energy or not, Ophelia has a LOT of dry air to its north west. If it does start to stregthen dramatically then I will be a believer of solar winds affecting Earth weather

I know that dry air will kill Ophilea if its stays around long enough, but if the dry air was not present I'm wondering what the possibilities are for what Mr Hughs is talking about. He has my curiosity goin here

[Jim Hughes]

Sounds like Star Trek to me.

Yeah remember when they use to talk into those things and tell Scotty to beam them up.. what were those strange things called ???.....I know they look like something...Oh yeah ...Cell Phones!! Who would have thought science fiction would come true .


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

X-flare energy or not, Ophelia has a LOT of dry air to its north west. If it does start to stregthen dramatically then I will be a believer of solar winds affecting Earth weather

I know that dry air will kill Ophilea if its stays around long enough, but if the dry air was not present I'm wondering what the possibilities are for what Mr Hughs is talking about. He has my curiosity goin here

Oh you just opened up the flood gates there cinfla. You had better stand back. Here comes a gullywasher.


Jim

[nequad]

Make sure to check the flux capacitor Marty...



Sincerely,

Doc



J/K Jim

[Jim Hughes]

X-flare energy or not, Ophelia has a LOT of dry air to its north west. If it does start to stregthen dramatically then I will be a believer of solar winds affecting Earth weather

I know that dry air will kill Ophilea if its stays around long enough, but if the dry air was not present I'm wondering what the possibilities are for what Mr Hughs is talking about. He has my curiosity goin here

Well when I went to bed last night around 1am she was looking still looking ragged in the satellite images. The early frames in the below WV
loop also show her not looking that great.

The last few are different though and she is looking a little healthier.....than what she had been looking like... maybe another burst ahead......lets see I said early mornig she would look better and get some people talking about her again.

I need to look over some data before I leave this morning. Certain things may have changed overnight. I leave in 90 mintues for a birthday party that my kids are attending in Md. I will not be back until late afternoon. I will try and post something before I leave in reference to what may lie ahead for Ophelia during the next 12-24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Well I looked over some data rather quickly this morning and I see nothing that points towards Ophelia's current, favorable phase from changing.

The raggedness that she displayed late last night should not return today. Although there is a slight chance that she may exhibit some disorganiztion around 11/00z or slightly after.


Jim