What is it with Gulf hurricanes and "5" years

Jim Cantore · #1 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:24 pm

Look at this Gulf storm trend

1965: Betsy
1975: Eloise
1985: Elena
1995: Opal
2005: Katrina
2015: ??????

cinlfla · #2 Postby **cinlfla** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:26 pm

It looks like every 10 years the gulf gets a major.

Jim Cantore · #3 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:28 pm

worse yet sometimes 1 or 2 in between

aka Ivan, Alicia, Camille, Frederic

wxmann_91 · #4 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 7:43 pm

Who knows, it starts with a hurricane hitting New Orleans, it ends with one hitting New Orleans. No storm in 2015?

VanceWxMan · #5 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:02 pm

last night on Discovery (Killer Hurricane Anatomy of Katrina) they were talking about a Dr from LSU that is taking deep soil samples of the marsh lands.. using carbon dating he has come up with a theory that every 1500 years the US experiences an increase in very strong Hurricanes (using the depth of the sand layer in the soil samples..the deeper the stronger the cane)
The thing that got me was that he concluded that we are at the TAIL END of the INACTIVE cycle and this is just the beginning!

Something to ponder
Aaron

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:04 pm

VanceWxMan wrote:last night on Discovery (Killer Hurricane Anatomy of Katrina) they were talking about a Dr from LSU that is taking deep soil samples of the marsh lands.. using carbon dating he has come up with a theory that every 1500 years the US experiences an increase in very strong Hurricanes (using the depth of the sand layer in the soil samples..the deeper the stronger the cane)
The thing that got me was that he concluded that we are at the TAIL END of the INACTIVE cycle and this is just the beginning!

Something to ponder
Aaron

Thats scary and btw aaron. Nice to see you

#7 Postby **cjrciadt** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:05 pm

Even if that is half true 2006 could be an insane year. Imagine if the CV fires up next year. :cry:

#8 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:29 pm

I would say the 9's are pretty nasty too- Camille (69) and Frederick (79)

wxmann_91 · #9 Postby **wxmann_91** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:29 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Even if that is half true 2006 could be an insane year. Imagine if the CV fires up next year.

If the subtropical ridge will be as weak as it was this year then if CV fires up it would be a good thing. This year most waves never developed until they were close to the US, thus many storms that would've harmlessly recurved out to sea instead snucked under the ridge and became a threat to the US (Katrina would be a good example).

AussieMark · #10 Postby **AussieMark** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:41 pm

Jim Cantore · #11 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:15 pm

9 years are nasty too

Atlantic Gulf Hurricane (1919)
Camille (1969)
Frederic (1979)
Hugo (1989)
Floyd (1999)

Jim Hughes · #12 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:48 pm

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:the US has been hit by a major every year that ends with a 5 for the last 80 years now

1935
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1945
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1955 (on NHC they are listed as category 3's)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1965
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1975
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1985
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

1995
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2005
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Stage in solar cycle ....Space weather effect...steering currents effected...

Typical solar cycle... about 11 years ....more closer to ten years ....latter half of 20th century .......solar minium ...based on the lowest monthly smoothed sunspot average. (13 month running smoothed mean)

See a possible pattern below with your "5" years ?

Close to minimum...sunspot wise...we are approaching it also....even with all this heightened activity the past 48 hours.

Solar minimum month/year

9/33

2/44

4/54

10/64

3/76

9/86

5/96

Jim

VanceWxMan · #13 Postby **VanceWxMan** » Fri Sep 09, 2005 10:09 pm

nice to see you too Rainband..

What would be kewl is if we could come up with a forecast study that will help us predict when the major storm will be. What do each of them have in common? Where they formed? Their tracks El or La Nina.. these things..then maybe we could get a better handle on when a Major Cane will strike and be more prepared..

Just me thinking out loud here LOL I am just and Aviation Met and learning about tropical every day.

Aaron

What is it with Gulf hurricanes and "5" years

What is it with Gulf hurricanes and "5" years

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