Pacific Northwest Weather

[Brian_from_bellingham]

I know Snowwizzard posts on two other forums. I also see Brennan on sometimes on one of them. We will see about a regime change, though I certainly do believe that we have decadal long cycles, I think only time will tell if we have gone through one, even if we have, it may not start sudden and dramatic, though I wish it would. At least this year SST's in the tropical pacific are a bit more favorable, and now we have cooler waters off our coast, after being quite warm for awhile.

There is a professional weather site that also thinks we are seeing a regime change back to weather like we saw in the 1940's through the 1960's or so. They base it on the global conveyor belt theory, the same one George Taylor uses. This is a site for retail stores, power companies, etc, not really for the general public (and they do not have chat forums). It is called weather2000.com.

[cloud9]

It's been awhile, but I'm back. How did everyone like the man-made hurricane? www. weatherwars.info/

[Perturbance]

George Taylor's Fall and Winter forecast has been released here. For Oregon, generally he's calling for above normal temperatures for fall and winter, with slightly above normal fall precipitation and above normal precipitation for winter. I haven't had a chance to read the whole thing yet. At the bottom of the article are links to two other climatologists predictions.

[Brian_from_bellingham]

http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html

At least for Oregon he is not optimistic for snow. The other two are more optimistic, as well as the different almanac's that they post.

[AnthonyC]

Quick update...

Alright, the once-a-day posts are not going to happen...I just don't have time. I never knew the college life was gonna be so hectic but so far it's pretty awesome. I do miss home though.

In any event, I think the PNW is in for a pattern change over the next week. A strong ridge of high pressure...currently located off the WA/OR coast...should retrograde to 150W. As this happens, the northern branch of the jet stream migrates south and impacts the PNW. One big change will be the temperatures...some places will probably be stuck in the upper 50s/lower 60s this weekend. The precipitation could also be significant...at least for the beginning/middle of September. With the moisture fetch extending from hurricane Nabi in the western Pacific, things could get interesting this weekend.

I hope everyone is doing well. Hopefully I can post maybe once every three days...or at least once a week. I did a few posts over at the tropics section in part to hurricane Katrina.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Glad to hear all is well.

Remember... enjoy your freshman year and don't work too hard. Its a great time of life... in all aspects.

We had some VERY heavy rain for about an hour on Sunday evening in a convergence zone. We got .70 in a very short time. That brings us to around 2 inches in the last 10 days and its nice to see the landscape greening up again in North Bend (all those semi-dormant lawns).

It definitely looks cool and unsettled this weekend. Somebody is going to see pretty strong thunderstorms on Friday. The NWS is forecasting highs in the upper 60's and low 70's but that may be 10 degrees too high by Saturday and Sunday!!

[TT-SEA]

Glad to see that the Seattle NWS is finally coming around to the idea of thunderstorms tomorrow.

Not sure why its so quiet in here with a cold trough moving in???

I hope Snow_Wizzard plans on returning... summer break is over!!

[Perturbance]

Oregon media is finally starting to pick up on George Taylor's winter prognostications, in the midst of all the Katrina coverage. As also predicted by TT-SEA, he's seeing analogs to the 1995-1996 winter.

It doesn't look like we'll get a lot of precip from this weekend's systems in the central Willamette Valley, but I'll take whatever falls from the sky. We've had breezy westerly winds since midafternoon with mostly clear skies.

[invisible]

I think we are going to have a cold winter this year because we have a lot of evidence to prove. PDO and SST's are still dropping. The other reason is that we will probably have some strong troughs in the month of September. In 1972 and 1985 had some strong troughs in September. These years had several sereve arctic blasts. I think 1985 is more match than 1972 because that year was an la nina-netrual year.

[AnthonyC]

Looking at latest satellite pics, cloud tops are starting to cool in British Columbia...and a nice surface feature trails behind those cloud tops. I don't think WA/OR will see alot of rain from this feature, but instability will be around meaning anything could fire up. Convective temperatures are around 60F...that shouldn't be too difficult to hit.

This could be the first significant trough of the season.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

We had an amazing downpour this morning. Just pounding down. Really impressive.

We received .40 in about 20 minutes.

[TT-SEA]

From the Climate Impacts Group...

What will it mean for the PNW in coming months?
The combined expectations for ENSO-neutral conditions over the next 3-6 months, a weak PDO pattern in North Pacific SSTs, and persistence of recent surface air temperature trends over the past 15 years favor increased odds for above average air temperatures for the next 3-6 months in western Washington and Oregon, and for the entire PNW region for Aug-Sep-Oct and December-May. There is no indication of a shift in the odds towards above or below normal precipitation in this period (i.e, the probability for above-normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation is statistically equal).

[TT-SEA]

And the rain keeps coming. This recent storm has definitely NOT been a dry system on the Eastside.

We received another .55 overnight bringing the storm total since yesterday to 1.10 here in North Bend.

We have now received 3.10 inches since the morning hours of August 29th from three different storms.

Sea-Tac airport has only gotten a TOTAL of about .50 in the same time period (13 days).

Also... Issaquah has received over 3 inches... but Bellevue has only gotten around 1 inch. So between Issaquah and North Bend... we have gotten a great deal of rain in the last 13 days!!

[R-Dub]

We have had 1.1" since yesterday morning here! What a change, first measurable rain since mid Aug. Also we had 3hrs straight of Lightning Friday morning, was spectacular! Had to hold my crew in for an hour before they could go work on the golf course since it was so intense.

Currently 51 degrees and drizzle

[TT-SEA]

The radar this morning tells the story out here.

This is a saved image... but this band of rain has been sitting out here on the Eastside for hours now.

We are now at 1.5 inches since yesterday and it is really coming down hard right now. As you can see...

[andrewr]

I too have been getting some good rainfall this morning. According to my closest local station at Lake Sawyer, I've gotten 0.55" today. Let's hope this is a sign of things to come because I'm ready for the fall season to start.

EDIT: Check out the picture from Paradise: http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/WebCams/ ... rimage.cfm

[TT-SEA]

Three hours later and here is the radar. We are in the middle of the yellow band.

So far we are now at 2.05 inches since yesterday.

And its still pouring...

[andycottle]

While It appears Tim has gotten his share of rain, I have also gotten mine. From yesterday and so far today combined, I`ve recieved 1.07". Since the early dark hours of this morning, I have got .83" in my rain gage. Right I have mostly cloudy skies with a few peaks of sun. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I finally see blue sky to the north and the rain is just about over.

2.20 inches since yesterday and now 4.20 inches in the last 2 weeks.

Thats some serious rain for early September!!

[invisible]

I am almost sure that they will surprise that the month of September will have below normal temperatures. They expect that the PNW will have above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation this month. I dont think they will be corrected. I checked the latest model. It didnt show anything about the strong ridge. I bet that they will realize that below normal September would lead to colder than normal winter.

I just figured out that the small pool of warm water near the coast of British Columbia is almost disappearing. Its a good sign for the cold winter.