It's a wait and see..deltadog03 wrote:yes, the NON N movement is a big deal....imho....
000
FXUS62 KTBW 081720
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
120 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2005
...OPHELIA: WHERE WILL SHE GO NEXT?...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT)...THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS OPHELIA AND HER INFLUENCE ON THE STATE. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HER EVENTUAL TRACK...IN BOTH THE 3 DAY
AND 7 DAY PERIOD.
AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING...OPHELIA ACTUALLY LOST LATITUDE AND
DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...CONTRARY TO MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH BEGAN A SLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST TRACK AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. RECENT 4 HOURS OF RADAR DATA INDICATE
CONTINUED STATIONARY MOVEMENT...WHILE ON SATELLITE THE CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING UP A LITTLE BETTER WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF
SLOW STRENGTHENING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS` ERROR IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THEIR RELIANCE ON
UPPER LEVEL (ABOVE 500 MB) FORECAST STEERING FLOW RATHER THAN THE
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO "PRESS" OPHELIA IN PLACE
OR A BIT SOUTHWARD. STILL...THE 12Z RUNS (NOGAPS/GFS/CANADIAN)
INSIST ON AN "EXIT..STAGE RIGHT" BEGINNING THIS EVENING. I`M NOT
SURE WHERE THIS IS COMING FROM...AS RAOBS RINGING THE GULF CONTINUE
TO SHOW A NORTHERLY COMPONENT UP TO 500 MB (IN SOME CASES 300 MB)
WITIH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE. EVEN SITES LIKE ATLANTA AND
BIRMINGHAM ARE A BIT LIGHTER WITH THE FLOW...ALTHOUGH COMPONENT IS
A BIT MORE WESTERLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE INFLECTION AXIS
OF THE WNW FLOW (VS. THE NORTH FLOW) EASING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THIS AXIS WILL BE KEY TO THE SHORT...AND
PERHAPS EVENTUAL LONG...TERM TRACKING OF THE STORM. IF THE AXIS
EASES INTO NORTH FLORIDA...OPHELIA SHOULD BEGIN TO JOG TO THE
EAST. ONE THING I HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING IT THAT THE STORM WILL
LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW. IF
ANYTHING...THE INITIAL EASTERLY JOG COULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK
TO THE WEST BASED ON EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER STRONG FULL-ATMOSPHERE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH
WOULD INCREASE NORTHEAST...THEN EAST...STEERING FLOW AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LONG TERM.
OTHERWISE...OPHELIA MAY WELL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY ALLOW WHATEVER WESTERLIES THAT WOULD PICK
UP THE CIRCULATION TO BYPASS IT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS (NGM AND NAM) AS
WELL AS THE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS FOCUS MORE ON THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD.
SO...THE ANSWER REMAINS UNCLEAR FOR NOW. ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR
IS THE SHORT TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHICH WILL CONTINUE VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHERLY
BREEZES...IN MOST AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AT
NIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE AROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND BLENDING HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THURS)...CONFIDENCE IN LONG RANGE FORECAST
IS STILL LOW AS MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SPLIT BETWEEN TWO REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS. LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE AND TPC FORECAST HAS TS OPHELIA
FAR ENUF AWAY TO PREVENT THE STRONGEST WX FROM AFFECTING US. HOWEVER,
THE NORTH FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
PULLING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS FAR ENOUGH
EAST...WHENEVER THAT HAPPENS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND PROVIDE A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS STILL FAIRLY
DRY FOR OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. ONLY SCENARIO THAT WOULD MAKE US
WETTER WOULD BE TO HAVE OPHELIA STAY STATIONARY THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND NOT GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BE PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH.
IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...THE NEXT RIDGE MOVING IN MAY ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO DRIFT BACK WEST. WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST...BASED ON TPC GUIDANCE...AND LOWER POPS TO 30 PCT EACH DAY
IN THE LONG RANGE.
WITH THE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE CLIMO EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...AGAIN...STATUS QUO WITH MAINTAINANCE OF CAUTION VALUES
(WINDS/SEAS) CENTRAL AND NORTH AND JUST BELOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
LEG. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SLIM TO NONE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE LONG TERM (SUNDAY-TUESDAY) HIGHLY DEPENDS ON
OPHELIA`S ULTIMATE TRACK. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A GENERAL
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 76 90 / 00 30 00 40
FMY 75 89 75 90 / 00 20 00 30
GIF 75 89 75 90 / 00 30 20 40
SRQ 76 89 76 89 / 00 20 00 30
BKV 74 88 74 90 / 00 20 00 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RJS
I would not be surprised, good thing I got all my supplies today.
