Tropical Storm Ophelia

#521 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:32 am

Someone please please tell me what is up with that Southerly drift??????

MortisFL · #522 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:33 am

It looks better than it did yesterday. Focusing on IR will sometimes give you a false representation. Radar gives a good look.

Tracy, it seems to meander and then go back to stationary.

cinlfla · #523 Postby **cinlfla** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:33 am

Someone please please tell me what is up with that Southerly drift??????

I don't know about the southerly drift maybe the high pushing it, but it is closer to me this morning then it was yesterday.

#524 Postby **tracyswfla** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:34 am

MortisFL wrote:It looks better than it did yesterday.

Tracy, it seems to meander and then go back to stationary.

Meandering like a toddler without a plan!

#525 Postby **feederband** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:34 am

*collision alarms going off in background* I starting to wonder about this..

Scorpion · #526 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:36 am

MortisFL wrote:It looks better than it did yesterday. Focusing on IR will sometimes give you a false representation. Radar gives a good look.

Tracy, it seems to meander and then go back to stationary.

I beg to differ. There is absolutely no organization or a CDO present. Very disorganized. Might organize later though.

MortisFL · #527 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:40 am

Scorpion wrote:
MortisFL wrote:It looks better than it did yesterday. Focusing on IR will sometimes give you a false representation. Radar gives a good look.

Tracy, it seems to meander and then go back to stationary.

I beg to differ. There is absolutely no organization or a CDO present. Very disorganized. Might organize later though.

Its 60 mph, pressure has lowered since yesterday. There's convection on the east and west side of the center.

#528 Postby **feederband** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:42 am

Does look like crap on sat .....But radar is a different story...

#529 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:43 am

Scorpion pressure is falling abeit slowly now down to 988 mbs per latest vortex.

caneman · #530 Postby **caneman** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Scorpion pressure is falling abeit slowly now down to 988 mbs per latest vortex.

Does look like crap though. Looks like dry air is infiltrating some.

boca · #531 Postby **boca** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 7:58 am

When is that big high pressure ridge suppose to build in?

MortisFL · #532 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:02 am

boca wrote:When is that big high pressure ridge suppose to build in?

2-3 days

ChaserUK · #533 Postby **ChaserUK** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:03 am

looking at radar I would say its drifting slightly S at the moment - very hard to tell however.

#534 Postby **Andrew92** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:04 am

MortisFL wrote:It looks better than it did yesterday. Focusing on IR will sometimes give you a false representation. Radar gives a good look.

Tracy, it seems to meander and then go back to stationary.

Maybe she's shopping right now.....and taking her good ol' sweet time doing so!

In any event, I think she is slowly intensifying, since the pressure is going down. As for those who think Ophelia looks like crap, I'm not fully buying into that. She definitely appears to be at least trying to develop a strong(er) inner core. If she succeeds, she could strengthen a bit more today. But we'll see what happens!

-Andrew92

Hyperstorm · #535 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:10 am

Overnight, Ophelia has strengthened slowly. Southeasterly shear has diminished somewhat since yesterday and has allowed the convection to try to wrap around the center of circulation on all sides. Looking at radar imagery, the storm looks impressive with precipitation all around the large center.

Even though UL winds have become slightly more favorable, (to the point that the pressure continues to drop and is close to the hurricane threshold) the convection has diminished greatly in intensity. Reason? Dry mid-level air has entrained into the circulation of the storm. This weakening of convection during the early morning hours, (when the convection is supposed to be at its maximum) is a sign of that.

The storm has been meandering over Gulf Stream SSTs for a while, and while you might expect to see some upwelling, that shouldn't be the case. The storm is being fueled by strong energy from the very warm SSTs, which are constantly flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. As long as the storm remains over those warm waters and UL winds remain at least marginally favorable, the storm will be able to mix out the dry air, eventually. It just takes time.

caneman · #536 Postby **caneman** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:13 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Overnight, Ophelia has strengthened slowly. Southeasterly shear has diminished somewhat since yesterday and has allowed the convection to try to wrap around the center of circulation on all sides. Looking at radar imagery, the storm looks impressive with precipitation all around the large center.

Even though UL winds have become slightly more favorable, (to the point that the pressure continues to drop and is close to the hurricane threshold) the convection has diminished greatly in intensity. Reason? Dry mid-level air has entrained into the circulation of the storm. This weakening of convection during the early morning hours, (when the convection is supposed to be at its maximum) is a sign of that.

The storm has been meandering over Gulf Stream SSTs for a while, and while you might expect to see some upwelling, that shouldn't be the case. The storm is being fueled by strong energy from the very warm SSTs, which are constantly flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. As long as the storm remains over those warm waters and UL winds remain at least marginally favorable, the storm will be able to mix out the dry air, eventually. It just takes time.

Good analysis and I agree.

boca · #537 Postby **boca** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:15 am

How strong will the high be when it builds in 2 or 3 days down the line?

Hyperstorm · #538 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:32 am

boca wrote:How strong will the high be when it builds in 2 or 3 days down the line?

boca...

The ridge is forecast to be moderately strong, but what's important is not the strength of the ridge per se, at this point. What's important is: Where will the storm be when this ridge shows up? If it's as far east as the GFS and other models show (south of Bermuda), then the storm will be too far east to be "trapped" under its influence. If it remains near the coast of Florida or as much as 100-150 miles to the east, it will have no problem being influenced and will move back westward.

We just have to wait and see where this erratic storm moves during the next couple of days before we jump on conclusions...

boca · #539 Postby **boca** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:38 am

Hyperstorm I don't want this storm pulling a Betsy living here in S FL. Thanks for the reply very informative.

Hyperstorm · #540 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:45 am

boca wrote:Hyperstorm I don't want this storm pulling a Betsy living here in S FL. Thanks for the reply very informative.

You're welcome.

Neither do I want this storm to do any loops back westward, especially if upper-level winds are as favorable as forecast in the latter periods. The only "saving grace" is dry mid-level air, which could offset any favorable winds. However, note how Jeanne was able to strengthen to major hurricane status, after being dried out by the less than humid air.

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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