Wow ...X 18 Flare!

[Jim Hughes]

No particulars in just yet but we are in the midlle of a major flare! 1742z peak ...X18 ...SID maybe... everything... maybe Proton event most likely coming. More later when updated.


Jim

[senorpepr]

Wow.. I just saw this come from the AF Space Weather Cell...

WOXX50 KGWC 071756

SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 1756Z 07 SEP 2005 PART A. SHORT WAVE FADE EVENT:

THE SHORT WAVE FADE WHICH BEGAN AT 1725Z 07 SEP 2005

REACHED A MAXIMUM X-RAY LEVEL OF X17 AT 1740Z 07 SEP 2005.

THE EVENT IS STILL IN PROGRESS, AS SOLAR X-RAY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH.

PART B.

HIGH FREQUENCY RADIO COMMUNICATIONS AND INTERCEPT

CAPABILITY IN DAYLIT AREAS OF THE GLOBE WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNAL

FADES UP TO 30 MHZ FOR AN ADDITIONAL 180MINUTES OR MORE.

EFFECTS MAY LAST SOMEWHAT LONGER AT LOWER FREQUENCIES.

NO FURTHER UPDATES WILL FOLLOW UNLESS THIS EVENT EXTENDS BEYOND

THE EXPECTED DURATION OR AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE FADE OCCURS.

PART C. REMARKS:

ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE

DUTY FORECASTER AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087.

INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil

UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK.

FORECASTERS: Taylor/ Bauman

[senorpepr]

[Aslkahuna]

The flare originated in old region 798 which is now preparing for its second disk transit. This region is the one responsible for the flare/CME that caused the very strong gemag disturbance and bright aurbo last month. X-Ray flux remains in the M levels but so far no proton flux enhancement. I suspect that any proton flux increases will be slow risers because of the unfavorable location of the flare-best proton events usually occur with regions near the west limb. The event log shows a 27000 sfu 10Flare associated with this event and that it has been followed by an Importance 3 Type II sweep with a shock speed of 1860 km/sec. The optical log shows an EPL with a maximum height of 0.29 Solar radius and a blue shift of 0.8 Angstrom.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Wow.. I just saw this come from the AF Space Weather Cell...

WOXX50 KGWC 071756

SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 1756Z 07 SEP 2005 PART A. SHORT WAVE FADE EVENT:

THE SHORT WAVE FADE WHICH BEGAN AT 1725Z 07 SEP 2005

REACHED A MAXIMUM X-RAY LEVEL OF X17 AT 1740Z 07 SEP 2005.

THE EVENT IS STILL IN PROGRESS, AS SOLAR X-RAY LEVELS REMAIN HIGH.

PART B.

HIGH FREQUENCY RADIO COMMUNICATIONS AND INTERCEPT

CAPABILITY IN DAYLIT AREAS OF THE GLOBE WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNAL

FADES UP TO 30 MHZ FOR AN ADDITIONAL 180MINUTES OR MORE.

EFFECTS MAY LAST SOMEWHAT LONGER AT LOWER FREQUENCIES.

NO FURTHER UPDATES WILL FOLLOW UNLESS THIS EVENT EXTENDS BEYOND

THE EXPECTED DURATION OR AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE FADE OCCURS.

PART C. REMARKS:

ISSUED BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY, OFFUTT AFB, NE.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR REQUIRE FURTHER INFORMATION, CALL THE

DUTY FORECASTER AT DSN 272-8087, COMMERCIAL 402-232-8087.

INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED AT https://weather.afwa.af.mil

UNDER THE SPACE WEATHER LINK.

FORECASTERS: Taylor/ Bauman

You need to get a quicker update service.


I had been watching everything rather closely since I was expecting something big to happen. And this was big...Off the top f my head I think it makes top ten...maybe...defintely top five this cycle. October 2003 flares were real big.

I just glanced at the particular updates. There was an EPL and this was accompanied by some very strong radio bursts and a Type ll/3 Sweep. A CME would have been headed our way if this was more towards the center. We still might get a glancing blow depending upon it's size....kind of doubtful though.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

Nooooo, I have to get up earlier I'm a late riser since I usually don't get to bed until after 2 AM. Just looked at the Radio Spectrum monitors from the HAARP site. Total blackout lasting for about 20 minutes from 5-18 MHz with a shorter blackout to 21 MHz. The fade is still in prgoress but not total. A strong absorption spike on the 30 MHz Riometer which has ended. Will have to see if this one caused a crochet.

Steve

[senorpepr]

WOXX50 KGWC 071756

SUBJECT: AFWA EVENT WARNING REPORT ISSUED AT 1756Z 07 SEP 2005 PART A. SHORT WAVE FADE EVENT:

<snip>

You need to get a quicker update service.

Jim

Actually, I wasn't even paying that much attention. My hands have been full with other weather around the globe. I noticed last night that the chances of HF and UHF problems were increasing, but didn't take a moment to investigate.

I also remember seeing holographic image of the farside of the sun and seeing the large sunspot group, but that was a few days ago.

I didn't find out about the X-flare until I logged onto our work's discussion room. We had been having a very interesting conversation about global warming and it's affects on global tropical cyclones (it's always fun seeing those conversations when it involves climatologists and other meteorologists) and then someone posted the WOXX message from our SpaceWOC.

[Jim Hughes]

Nooooo, I have to get up earlier I'm a late riser since I usually don't get to bed until after 2 AM. Just looked at the Radio Spectrum monitors from the HAARP site. Total blackout lasting for about 20 minutes from 5-18 MHz with a shorter blackout to 21 MHz. The fade is still in prgoress but not total. A strong absorption spike on the 30 MHz Riometer which has ended. Will have to see if this one caused a crochet.

Steve

Not sure about the crochet...it was very strong but it's going to be close if you consider the impulsivenss side....seen worse ...but the again size is much higher. Not much to go by historically.

BTW talking about Senorpepr getting a better update service. I know you stay up late...although I imagine you might be getting up earlier.... looking through your filtered scope this week... if things stay active.

Jim

[Aslkahuna]

The was a crochet-SEC reported an 82 nT crochet and it showed up on the HAARP magnetometer trace from the Galena Station. There was also a Type IV with it and the proton flux is rising slowly now to we have a potential proton event on the way. It was also a white light event. It's too cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon to take the scopes out as we are still in monsoon flow (though weak).

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

The was a crochet-SEC reported an 82 nT crochet and it showed up on the HAARP magnetometer trace from the Galena Station. There was also a Type IV with it and the proton flux is rising slowly now to we have a potential proton event on the way. It was also a white light event. It's too cloudy in the late morning and early afternoon to take the scopes out as we are still in monsoon flow (though weak).

Steve

I saw the SEC report. Defintely a biggie....trying to remember how strong the November 97' magnetic crochet was...BTW you might remember this if you think back but I do not need any headaches so I will not even mention what I use to monitor, and post almost daily statistics about in late 97' in the old TWC forum but I had noticed an increase.. locally there.. the past few days. Sort of an odd coincidence I hope.

Almost an eight year pattern there. 80 , 89 , 97'.....2005 ????



Jim

[Jim Hughes]

I see the proton levels are still steadily rising.


Jim

[Aslkahuna]

The >10 MeV and 100MeV proton flux levels are now at event levels.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

The >10 MeV and 100MeV proton flux levels are now at event levels.

Steve

Thanks for the update..went to bed earlier than you... imagine that

So Nate does not want to get any closer to major status but Ophelia does not mind but she is a much weaker storm. This is what I have noticed in the past and why I mentioned what almost looks like a storm inensity cap while they are rising to event level or still very high.


Jim