Tropical Storm Ophelia

Nimbus · #401 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:12 pm

The shear is decreasing at her present location.
For some good maps go back to "start=180" in this thread.
I don't know how much further north she can go with the ridge there.

The NHC has done a great job so far with this storm, it has got to be an incredibly tense environment having this thing spin up on your doorstep with the media ready to jump on the first landfall area you mention.

#402 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:27 pm

it has got to be an incredibly tense environment having this thing spin up on your doorstep with the media ready to jump on the first landfall area you mention

YOU AIN'T KIDDIN'! :eek:

#403 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:50 pm

Did I miss something or did the gfdl change? Shows over my house in 60 hours and into Ga.

#404 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:51 pm

yep, it certainly changed

#405 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:52 pm

Thanks Cronk!

chris_fit · #406 Postby **chris_fit** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:52 pm

Most models still have it doing the loop

jdray · #407 Postby **jdray** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:54 pm

sponger wrote:Did I miss something or did the gfdl change? Shows over my house in 60 hours and into Ga.

roh roh shaggy.....

Website · #408 Postby **Brent** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:55 pm

Why do I see shades of Jeanne??? :roll:

Is this like the evil spawn??? :eek:

rockyman · #409 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:57 pm

jdray wrote:
sponger wrote:Did I miss something or did the gfdl change? Shows over my house in 60 hours and into Ga.

roh roh shaggy.....

Not really too much change...just take the old GFDLs and shift the entire track northward to reflect the current starting position...the bottom line is that the GFDL continues to forecast a strong ridge pushing the system west. Of couse, the devil is in the details

#410 Postby **sponger** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:01 pm

Wow that is a huge change overall, looks like alot more agreement on recurvature then the am runs. Question is do I root for a Cat 1 eye wall hit or recurvature and hope it does not come back?

#411 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:09 pm

This reminds me of Jeanne. Models initially showed a NE FL landfall then started hooking to the right, then they swung back towards FL. It seems the ridge has been underated w/ the models going back to 2004. Frances, Jeanne, Ivan, Katrina all ended up farther W than the models.

DESTRUCTION5 · #412 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:12 pm

chris_fit wrote:Most models still have it doing the loop

Loop is looking much more plausble with all this agreement from the major models...MW you have done it again

TPACane04 · #413 Postby **TPACane04** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:12 pm

looking at 12z runs of CMC, GFS and GFDL...silliness.

GFDL rolls up over N Fl into Alabama...the others ease her east very slowly, but I do not see a window where the ridge would force a "loop" ala Jeanne last year..

GFDL is bothersome, if only due to it's pretty solid job on Katrina.

So the smart money would be that if she begins to head East, it will stay there, although not in typical fish fashion. (blowing out quickly NE with the westerlies)

In other words, Lady O will be "fashionably boring" for the next few days.

chris_fit · #414 Postby **chris_fit** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:23 pm

TPACane04 wrote:In other words, Lady O will be "fashionably boring" for the next few days.

If a tropical system hovering over really warm gulf stream waters in a favorable environment for a few days near the SE coast of the USA is fashionably boring then :roll:

#415 Postby **Windy** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:25 pm

Heh. Now THIS is a good example of chaos playing a major role on the synoptic scale. The entire future history of this storm hinges on some relatively small inputs.

scostorms · #416 Postby **scostorms** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:28 pm

Is it doing a Jeanne pull off?

KG4HPN · #417 Postby **KG4HPN** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 2:29 pm

The entire future history of this storm hinges on some relatively small inputs.

Indeed. I'm thinking about hooking up my boxfan on the beach and seeing if that will send her fishing. :lol:

TS Zack · #418 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:01 pm

Keep that thing away from me! :grr:

#419 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:03 pm

ummmmm...good luck deciphering this baby

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

Coredesat · #420 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Sep 07, 2005 3:05 pm

CronkPSU wrote:image with a bunch of model plots on it

Looks like what I wrote in an amateur discussion on 16/Ophelia yesterday:

The model runs look like they were drawn by a 2-year-old with crayons - they diverge that much.

Tropical Storm Ophelia

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