Tropical Storm Ophelia

[LarryWx]

West a bit now, wobble and drift, then North into the weakness between them thar ridges.

In other words, if that ridge to teh west builds the lobe east like it's trying to do over GA...I'll be test running my generator

The steering map you're using is for sub-940 mb storms. Being that the current pressure is near 1,000 mb, I'm wondering why you aren't showing a steering map for weaker storms. Even with an assumption of some current strengthening, I feel that the best map to display for now would be the 990-999 mb steering flow map. which looks a lot different from the sub 940 mb map. It is at the following link:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

[deltadog03]

i am still seeing the west movement right now....it will be interesting to see if this continues....

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am not looking at teh analyses from the standpoint of the storm realtive pressure, more for the indication of the building of the ridge heights from now, to say 36 hours from now. You are correct for steering currents it would be the best to use if the storm were in that intensity. The changes show up better at the lower mb heights.

My point is, the change in synoptics keeping this storm out of the GOM. On either map I can see the storm following the climo and hugging the coast more than a cut across FL. That can and does happen, just going with a more likely solution.

We will see

[feederband]

Doesn't look like it is moving at all to me.

[cjrciadt]

Doesn't look like it is moving at all to me.

Little movement at all

[shaggy]

i am feeling a bit uneasy and easy all at the same time.Just have this overwhelming feeling of calm this year as most storms have fished off the EC.Ophelia is a bit concerning though if she decides to run the coast up to the carolinas.Hopefully she will not do anything until the predicted shear tears her apart.

[Dean4Storms]

It is beginning to look like once again the GFDL may be right, although off just a little in the initialization. You can clearly see both on Radar and Visible Sat. imagery that Ophelia has moved more westward in the past 4-6 hours or so with maybe a slight North of west course.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[LarryWx]

I am not looking at teh analyses from the standpoint of the storm realtive pressure, more for the indication of the building of the ridge heights from now, to say 36 hours from now. You are correct for steering currents it would be the best to use if the storm were in that intensity. The changes show up better at the lower mb heights.

My point is, the change in synoptics keeping this storm out of the GOM. On either map I can see the storm following the climo and hugging the coast more than a cut across FL. That can and does happen, just going with a more likely solution.

We will see

OK, I now follow your reasoning. Also, yes, climo says that in early SEP, odds favor that a storm will not turn due westward to and across central FL from its prior NNW or NW heading. Climo at this time of year favors either: 1) a continued NNW or NW motion to NE FL or GA; 2) a turn to the N/NE to SC or NC; or 3) A sharp recurve out to sea. Option #3 seems less likely climowise, but even it is favored by climo over the due westward turn over central FL. That being said, climo could easily be "wrong" here. I'm not making a forecast right now.

My eyes on the radar tell me that there has been virtually no movement of the center over the last hour or so. A stationary system is often harder to predict.

[Jim Hughes]

It is beginning to look like once again the GFDL may be right, although off just a little in the initialization. You can clearly see both on Radar and Visible Sat. imagery that Ophelia has moved more westward in the past 4-6 hours or so with maybe a slight North of west course.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Boy I hope this is one of those times that a system looks like it's moving a certain way but the center is just moving about and basically stationary.


Jim

[Jim Cantore]

The weather channel accidently keeps calling over Katrina

Rightfully so thats its been that way where Katrina is getting that much coverage but at least for now Katrinas Sister Ophilia will be the focus

Ophilia says: "I hear alot about my sister and hope to follow in her footsteps that was until I heard how hated she was"

This is going to be a fun storm to track (for ameuturs and non TV people)

[HurricaneGirl]

I heard the lady early this morning on TWC call her Katrina too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC better have drifting or Stationary in the 200 cause there is no N component right now hands down...Not to mention she is strenghthening on Radar with the center wrapping bigtime...Cane by tonight IMO...

[feederband]

Still not going anywhere....Come on already!!! Quit playing with us.....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[f5]

TWC ) Mike Seidel is on Ormond beach in Fl Does this mean They think She may come in there?? Just wondering

I won't get concern until the hurricane magnet(Jim Cantore)shows up until then its not something to lose sleep over

[chris_fit]

She is really looking a lot better right now than she did at 8am... 10x better. Local mets, on all channels here on the space coast, have no clue where it's going.

[feederband]

Changed my mind looks like she is fading east....Is she heading out or getting a better running start???

[chris_fit]

Also, notice convection starting to wrap around the south side of the system. Getting much better organized by the hour. Hurricane by tomorrow I think.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 071738
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA HAS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LASTER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

[seaswing]

TWC ) Mike Seidel is on Ormond beach in Fl Does this mean They think She may come in there?? Just wondering

I won't get concern until the hurricane magnet(Jim Cantore)shows up until then its not something to lose sleep over

I betcha Jim is taking some R&R after Katrina. I believe he helped a lot of the elderly evacuate. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him though if this one intensified more.