Everything looking conducive from my perspective

[Jim Hughes]

The following is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For official information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I personally do not like what I am seeing from my perspective regarding certain things that I have talked about in the past. Tropical enhancement should continue throughout the day and we should see a burst later today and early this evening with the prime times being between 6/21z- 7/03z.

Maria... Nate...etc have all been following these relationships quite clearly.


Jim

[fci]

I personally do not like what I am seeing from my perspective regarding certain things that I have talked about in the past. Tropical enhancement should continue throughout the day and we should see a burst later today and early this evening with the prime times being between 6/21z- 7/03z.

Maria... Nate...etc have all been following these relationships quite clearly.


Jim

Jim:
I have followed your threads before and know that you are involved in complex research having to do with astronomical relationships ( I think) but I must ask you;
What are you talking about?
Seems to be in code, or I am just not very perceptive......

Can you (pardon the pun) bring it down to earth for me???

[Jim Hughes]

FCI,

Over the years I have both monitored and researched the space weather effect upon tropical activity. There are several different space weather variables involved here. Magnetic field directions...solar wind speed.. solar eruptions..solar flaring... geomagnetic storming ...particle levels.. Radio Sweeps etc..

The two easiest things for the layman..which I technically am also.. to monitor are the solar wind speed and solar eruptions. The latter can be seen in still images or mpg's.

The other, regarding the solar wind speed , is a numerical value that I have given out for development. (Below the 500 km/sec level) It also seems to have a relationship in the intensification process after storms have already formed but it seems to have a different effect upon different areas.

Fish storms seem to be less effected and this is why I believe someone can make a hurricane directional forecast based on this alone regardless of satellite or weather data. Tropical systems that intensify during the times of increased solar wind speed , especially well above the 500 km/sec level, will go north and east of the US east coast and they will not make landfall when they form well out to the east like Maria did.


Here are some URL's that you may want to look at.


ACE Solar wind speed data..Under bulk speed

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt



Solar eruption on 9/3 ...this mpg shows it much better than the still image around it's peak. This can happen sometimes. Seems that the shock speed of the eruption can limit the still image's capability..forecasting by them.

http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050903_c3.mpg



Still image.


http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... 418_c3.gif


Maria intensified nicely after this eruption 36 hours later. September 4th ...11am discussion ....talks about this significant intensification



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .013.shtml


A larger and more intense eruption occurred yesterday. There was also a TYPE lV Radio Sweep around this time frame. You will have to pause the mpg image to get a good look at this or you can look at the 1042z still image.

LASCO 3 Still image

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... 042_c3.gif

9/5 LASCO 3 mpg

http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/050905_c3.mpg


Jim

[HurriCat]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

[Jim Hughes]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

The relationships that I have previously talked about deal mostly with the effect upon intensity level and not storm tracks. (I know I spoke about the fish storms again in this thread)

I saw plenty of space weather effects upon Katrina's life span from my perspective if you follow my theories. I have specifically spelled things out in previous posts.

I have a few things to do but I will get back to you with some examples/reasoning with Katrina's strengthening impulses and how they might have been related to my space weather theories.



Jim

[mvtrucking]

I always find your posts interesting Jim

[kevin]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting I will be watching for intensification tonight

[Jim Hughes]

Interesting I will be watching for intensification tonight

Both have continued to strengthen since yesterday afternoon. They each had their winds bumped up 5 knots in the 11pm update and the same thing happened again in the 5am advisory. Nate's pressure fell 7mb and is down to 990 mb.

Ophelia is also looking better organized and she started to get her act together rather quickly in the forecasted time period. This does not prove anything but it beats failing.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

I always find your posts interesting Jim

Thanks MV. At the very least people learn a little bit about space weather. It is important considering how allot of the high tech gadgets rely on satellites. We defintely know that they do get effected by it.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

I will post something in the next day or so regarding Katrina's life history and my thoughts about it. I only have so much free time and monitoring things is very important at this stage of the proccess. So I like to look over things constantly when I can. Storm2k saves me allot of time with all these updated posts regarding different observations and comments. They are very helpful

But here's one quick point about Katrina's formation.

I have spoken about the importance of the solar wind speed level of 500 km/sec. This seems to be the average speed that I have noticed over the years regarding formation time.

Katrina formed 8/23/21z....ACE's solar wind speed hourly reading for 21z 484 km/sec...

The solar wind hourly averages (ACE satellite based) since August 1st have been at the 500 km/sec level or above, 40% of the time through September 6th.

We have seen eight tropical deepressions form. The solar wind speed hourly average at their formation time. I use their name here.

Harvey- 469
Irene- 401
Jose-535
Katrina- 484
Lee- 413
Maria -515
NAte-466
Ophelia- 442

Now lets take a look at the two that formed above 500 km/sec..

Jose formed at 22/16z and the hourly average was 535 but it was at 463 between 13-14z. The solar winds that the ACE satellite measure arrive around 45 minutes later depending upon their speed and this is when the earth's magnetic field responds to these changes. The five hour smoothed average centered around 14z was 504 km/sec.

Maria formed at 515 km/sec...the solar wind had been constantly waxing and waning between 482-517 between 9/1/0z-15z . The smoothed hourly average for September 1st, up to her formation time , was ironically 499 km/sec.

More later....


Jim

[HurriCat]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

The relationships that I have previously talked about deal mostly with the effect upon intensity level and not storm tracks. (I know I spoke about the fish storms again in this thread)

I saw plenty of space weather effects upon Katrina's life span from my perspective if you follow my theories. I have specifically spelled things out in previous posts.

I have a few things to do but I will get back to you with some examples/reasoning with Katrina's strengthening impulses and how they might have been related to my space weather theories.

Jim

No worries, sir. Please don't go to any trouble on my account - as I said, I am a serious newbie and your efforts will be a case of overkill w. my limited experience/understanding. What I find fascinating, though, is the edgy quality of your particular field - seeing you as being one of the pioneers in what will likely become a standard part of the weather routine. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

[bsuwx]

If the solar wind does strengthen Trop. Cyclones, how does it discriminate against fish storms?

[Jim Hughes]

If the solar wind does strengthen Trop. Cyclones, how does it discriminate against fish storms?

I was pondering this same question within Storm2k or some other forum recently. I speculated that the electrical feedbacks with the ionopshere may be different in this area by way of magnetic field vectors.

Or the increased solar wind, which would be related to solar eruptions/interplanetary magnetic field changes , load the dice and we see certain atmospheric conditions that favor tropical enhancemnt or at the very least they do not inhibit it. There by counter acting the usual relationship in which the increased solar wind seems to inhibit other parts of the basin.

Just a hypothesis.


Jim

[kevin]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

The relationships that I have previously talked about deal mostly with the effect upon intensity level and not storm tracks. (I know I spoke about the fish storms again in this thread)

I saw plenty of space weather effects upon Katrina's life span from my perspective if you follow my theories. I have specifically spelled things out in previous posts.

I have a few things to do but I will get back to you with some examples/reasoning with Katrina's strengthening impulses and how they might have been related to my space weather theories.

Jim

No worries, sir. Please don't go to any trouble on my account - as I said, I am a serious newbie and your efforts will be a case of overkill w. my limited experience/understanding. What I find fascinating, though, is the edgy quality of your particular field - seeing you as being one of the pioneers in what will likely become a standard part of the weather routine. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

Funny stuff!!!!

[Jim Hughes]

Not trying to be a jerk, but did this methodology do well with Katrina, as far as formation, tracking, intensity, etc?

I know that you get a lot of skepticism, but myself - I see too many other cause/effect relationships in nature to disregard your work just (snap) because it isn't "mainstream".

The relationships that I have previously talked about deal mostly with the effect upon intensity level and not storm tracks. (I know I spoke about the fish storms again in this thread)

I saw plenty of space weather effects upon Katrina's life span from my perspective if you follow my theories. I have specifically spelled things out in previous posts.

I have a few things to do but I will get back to you with some examples/reasoning with Katrina's strengthening impulses and how they might have been related to my space weather theories.

Jim

No worries, sir. Please don't go to any trouble on my account - as I said, I am a serious newbie and your efforts will be a case of overkill w. my limited experience/understanding. What I find fascinating, though, is the edgy quality of your particular field - seeing you as being one of the pioneers in what will likely become a standard part of the weather routine. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

Funny stuff!!!!

I know this space weather jargon is complicated so if you have any questions. Just ask. Don't be shy.

Jim

[ishop]

Jim,

--I am a lurker learning from everyone here ---
but I am really fascinated by your topic.

There has been
four big flare since the 7th:

X5.4 - 2135 UTC Sept. 8th
X1.1 - 0513 UTC Sept. 9th
M6.2 - 0632 UTC Sept. 9th
X3.6 - 1015 UTC Sept. 9th
and a X20 Solar flare on the 7th

How will this effect if any the intensity of Ophelia?

Inquiry mind wants to know

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,

--I am a lurker learning from everyone here ---
but I am really fascinated by your topic.

There has been
four big flare since the 7th:

X5.4 - 2135 UTC Sept. 8th
X1.1 - 0513 UTC Sept. 9th
M6.2 - 0632 UTC Sept. 9th
X3.6 - 1015 UTC Sept. 9th
and a X20 Solar flare on the 7th

How will this effect if any the intensity of Ophelia?

Well let me get back to you later. I am currently in the midst of sending out e-mails and I just posted something over in the Globcal Forum....Plus I have a ton of things to do today...go figure!...

The first CME (coronal mass ejection) has arrived and we are about to see a sharp increase in geomagnetic storming. Aurora sightings will be possible.

This storm will start dumping electrons into the earth's ring current...lower latitude...watch the DST index readings...

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html


Jim

[wxcrazytwo]

Jim,

--I am a lurker learning from everyone here ---
but I am really fascinated by your topic.

There has been
four big flare since the 7th:

X5.4 - 2135 UTC Sept. 8th
X1.1 - 0513 UTC Sept. 9th
M6.2 - 0632 UTC Sept. 9th
X3.6 - 1015 UTC Sept. 9th
and a X20 Solar flare on the 7th

How will this effect if any the intensity of Ophelia?

Well let me get back to you later. I am currently in the midst of sending out e-mails and I just posted something over in the Globcal Forum....Plus I have a ton of things to do today...go figure!...

The first CME (coronal mass ejection) has arrived and we are about to see a sharp increase in geomagnetic storming. Aurora sightings will be possible.

This storm will start dumping electrons into the earth's ring current...lower latitude...watch the DST index readings...

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html


Jim

yeah but SORCHA FAAL said..

[ishop]

wxcrazytwo who is yeah but SORCHA FAAL and he or she also

very well informed of the correlations between
CME (coronal mass ejection), Solar flares and weather?


ishop