Tropical Storm Ophelia

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, not buying the GFDL. I don't like these storms that have time to strenghthen over the gulf stream. Also of note is the forecast weak trough to cut off and remain over the SE US. In a weak steering environment, the storm will drift N which is indicated in the NHC track.

Not liking the set up here I'm singing...

Ophelia.....
your breaking my heart....
your shaking my confidence daily....
Ohhh Ophelia, I'm down on my knees...
beggin' you please to GO home (to sea) go on home

...Paul Simon author

[spinfan4eva]

Ophelia finds this as a nice parking spot for SUN/MON

[cajungal]

The name Opehilia is so hideous. The "o" storm should of been called Oprah. Like Oprah Winfrey.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She clearly is not moving NW..there is here LLC

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[no advance]

DEstroy 5 you see that eye! If so at least we will be able to track it. Mel. radar.

[CronkPSU]

wow, moving SSE in that loop

[dixiebreeze]

07/1145 UTC 28.6N 79.5W T3.0/3.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic Ocean

[jasons2k]

The storm has now consolidated its layers and I expect the deep layer means to take over and eventually move it west.

Here is a good reference article explaining the steering flows at various levels:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... eprint.pdf

[no advance]

About a month ago I went out tuna fishing with my buddies. I remember the water temp out there about 88. She is heading to hurricane status soon

[deltadog03]

ok, radar presentation is looking much better right now...its moving due west in the past 1 or 2.....

[dolphinslady]

So is the 'brown' in this motion what they are thinking might possibly steer her east? If so, do you really think it's strong enough to do that?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cjrciadt]

So is the 'brown' in this motion what they are thinking might possibly steer her east? If so, do you really think it's strong enough to do that?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any closer and Nate and Ophelia would be tied to the hip. I will watching to see if the West motion is tied with N. or S. movement.

[rockyman]

Looking at the radar loop out of Melbourne, the center is really starting to tighten up...now we'll be able to track the movement...instead of watching reformations of the center (in the last hour, I've seen statements such as "moving N" "moving W" "moving ESE")...I'll reserve my opinion on current movement for a few more hours.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking here http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

and comparing to teh NHC track. it makes sense. Also, the SW drift is not uncommon on drifting storm which is strenghtening. The overall pattern is for a drifting/meandering short term.

The kicker here is the relative speeds of the approaching trough over the SW US and the strenghtening. As the storm is building in intensity and height it will climb poleward. This remains to be seen though. Another factor is the orientation of the trough. If it tilts more E/W i.e. zonal or digs in.

[Marilyn]

TWC ) Mike Seidel is on Ormond beach in Fl Does this mean They think She may come in there?? Just wondering

[CronkPSU]

So is the 'brown' in this motion what they are thinking might possibly steer her east? If so, do you really think it's strong enough to do that?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any closer and Nate and Ophelia would be tied to the hip. I will watching to see if the West motion is tied with N. or S. movement.

as long as we have had every other thing this hurricane system in the atlantic except this...let's go fujiwhara!!!!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmm ridge building between Nate and Ophelia. This explains the west drift now. Overall weak steering pattern but this will play out at 5pm advisory by my guesswork. Looks like a change is coming. Also, puts a whole line of thinking against the model initializations.

New bets or guesses?

[seaswing]

The name Opehilia is so hideous. The "o" storm should of been called Oprah. Like Oprah Winfrey.

They really come up with some 'weiner' names, don't they? who thinks these names up anyway?

[seaswing]

Hmm ridge building between Nate and Ophelia. This explains the west drift now. Overall weak steering pattern but this will play out at 5pm advisory by my guesswork. Looks like a change is coming. Also, puts a whole line of thinking against the model initializations.

New bets or guesses?

so what are you saying?

[BensonTCwatcher]

West a bit now, wobble and drift, then North into the weakness between them thar ridges.

In other words, if that ridge to teh west builds the lobe east like it's trying to do over GA...I'll be test running my generator