Tropical Storm Ophelia

[jasons2k]

I think that's a good analysis and it could happen, I just don't see it getting pulled to the N or NE. I'm sticking with my initial thoughts that it will come across FL. I think the GFDL has the right idea, but the loop may happen while she's still trapped, then a move W later on.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Can't say I can argue with any of the analysis at this point. The Euro seems cosistent run to run too.

Heck, there is really no one clear solution I see at this point, proably one of three will happen. This is why we tune in....

[no advance]

Melbourne radar it is not moving.

[jasons2k]

Can't say I can argue with any of the analysis at this point. The Euro seems cosistent run to run too.

Heck, there is really no one clear solution I see at this point, proably one of three will happen. This is why we tune in....

I agree, excellent points

[rockyman]

Click here for the current output from almost all of the models (not just 3 or 4)...you can see 2 solutions...out to sea or into Gomex...NO models show a Jacksonville hit and only three models shows a hit anywhere north of Jacksonville (and 2 of those just skirt the Outer Banks):

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=allmods&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-89.956446+18.252390+-68.998344+39.208589&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL162005.map&savequery=true

[cjrciadt]

Click here for the current output from almost all of the models (not just 3 or 4)...you can see 2 solutions...out to sea or into Gomex...NO models show a Jacksonville hit and only one model shows a hit anywhere north of Jacksonville:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=allmods&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-89.956446+18.252390+-68.998344+39.208589&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL162005.map&savequery=true

My head hurts looking at all that. Does anything have a fix on where she will go? The new NHC tracks keeps her off the coast till Sun. I hate really really sloow systems.

[vaffie]

I think the western track is going to verify. It's going to cross Florida and go into the Gulf. The GFDL and ECMWF models are the best at predicting tropical systems. They've been consistently saying it's going west. I'd agree with them more than with the others. They've always done better than the other models at predicting storms. The high in the southeast is stronger than the models originally thought it would be. And the coordinates of the storm are changing gradually to a more northwest and westnorthwest movement anyway. The last coordinate compared to the previous one is just south of northwest. On satellite imagery and radar, also, more convection is beginning to develop southwest of the center, which is what would happen if the flow is beginning to push the storm westward or southwestward. Anyway, what do I know? Time will tell, but I think the GFDL is going to verify.


Wind Central
Advisory (in MPH) Direction of Pressure
Number Date/Time Position Speed Gust Movement (MPH) (in mb) Status
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 06/1500Z 26.5N/78.6W 30 40 Stnry -- 1007 TropDp
1A 06/1800Z 26.5N/78.6W 30 40 Stnry -- 1007 TropDp
2 06/2100Z 26.7N/78.5W 30 40 Stnry -- 1008 TropDp
2A 07/0000Z 27.0N/78.4W 30 40 Stnry -- 1008 TropDp
3 07/0300Z 27.4N/78.5W 35 45 NNW 3 1008 TropDp
3A 07/0600Z 27.9N/78.8W 40 50 NNW 5 1003 TropSt
4 07/0900Z 28.3N/78.9W 40 50 NNW 8 1003 TropSt
4A 07/1200Z 28.5N/79.2W 45 60 NNW 7 1003 TropSt

[BensonTCwatcher]

Click here for the current output from almost all of the models (not just 3 or 4)...you can see 2 solutions...out to sea or into Gomex...NO models show a Jacksonville hit and only three models shows a hit anywhere north of Jacksonville (and 2 of those just skirt the Outer Banks):

http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/mapserv.exe?mode=browse&zoom=1&layer=country&layer=allmods&imgxy=299.5+299.5&imgext=-89.956446+18.252390+-68.998344+39.208589&map=..%2Fhurapak%2FAAL162005.map&savequery=true

More than half of those tracks are useless at this position of the system. The globals have the most use, but you will notice that the NHC track does not follow any of them specifically and the 5 day plot from the NHC shows a loop.

I am basing my thoughts on the global features and climo history and not the model runs at this stage. a sharp left turn does seem the most likely scenario. each tick north makes it less likely ( see the NHC discussion)

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK,

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Notice how the convection is spreading in all directions? not just west?

Also note the tropical forecast points on the overlay. Compare that to the center of circ?

Now whay would this NOT want to track the way I described it COULD?

[Steve H.]

I would be surprised if it does come across FLorida, but vaffie doe have a good point. It is stationary (meandering) and its showing convection building on the SW side, which is typical when a westward movement is being "encouraged" by steering aloft. On the other hand, I haven't seen a storm cut across FLorida that was north of my latitude (28N). But these are unusual times

[cjrciadt]

This really helps clear a picture on her possible movement.

[seaswing]

She doesn't need to sit out there and 'brew' ...she needs to make her mind up pretty soon to avoid intensification...don't want any of that going on!!!

[cajungal]

Just hope that Bamms don't verify. It takes dead aim at Lafourche Parish. LA and MS sure don't need this. Even a weak system would be too much to handle.

[vaffie]

To me, Melbourne radar shows that she's started moving due west now, perhaps even with a slight southerly component, and at a fairly good clip. At this rate, by my estimates, the center will be at the coast some time between Daytona Beach and Melbourne by 5 to 7 pm ET tonight.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml

[no advance]

The actual center is not moving much. The moisture is pinwheeling around the center.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
1500Z WED SEP 07 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 0SE 0SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO MEANDER JUST OFF
THE EAST FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. THIS GENERAL SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.8 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

[NastyCat4]

It is NOT moving West, it is still NNW, and it is elongating West to East--probably getting drawn East by weak steering currents.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL NORTH
OF THE CENTER...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW.
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED
ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK OPHELIA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND A LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. SINCE THE GFS BRINGS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OPHELIA BY THE END OR THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 65
AND 70 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

OPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT
OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE
FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE
CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY
THE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OTHER
MODELS KEEP OFELIA LOOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE BEST
OPTION IN THESE CASES OF LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS TO FORECAST
LITTLE MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 28.8N 79.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 29.2N 79.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 29.8N 80.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 30.0N 80.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 80.3W 65 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 70 KT

[cjrciadt]

1000mb and moving NW at 3 at 11AM, still discounting the GFDL track.