Tropical Storm Ophelia

[LanceW]

Interesting model run.

Again, for the 1 millionth time, pay VERY LITTLE attention to the BAM runs with a storm out of the deep tropics (south of 20N). The BAMS/BAMM/BAMD are practically useless in a changing environment. LBAR is no good either, and A98E is simply a climo model. So those model runs that everyone posts ever 6 hours are basically meaningless with TD 16/Ophelia.

I'd look more closely at the GFDL and ECMWF, as the GFS will always weaken the ridge too quickly as it did with Katrina. And the NAM is always useless for tropical.

Final note, the center is closer to 28N/78.7W now (reformation), so the next GFDL will likely shift farther northward but the same general track.

Well I for one would not like that to happen. The current track is just south of me, north would not be nice. I leave for a cruise on Sunday, I want no flooding before hand.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Conditions at Cape Canaveral:

After two days of rain and wind, it is eerily quiet this evening.

Is it the calm before the storm, or has pre-O really moved north and she's hauling her dry butt through here? Not sure, but I'm getting a little concerned about water levels outside. It has rained pretty steadily for the past two days and I have more standing water right now than I had with any of the 3 'canes last year. With predictions of possibly 15 more inches, I hope she is on her way to those of you that need the rain.

Thoughts from my neighborhood: Before Katrina (Pre-K), this close hovering storm would have spurned shopping trips, neighborhood street meetings, and lots of family coordination, but no one I know is even acknowledging that it exists.

It's just dreary enough outside to mistake this storm for "Katrina tears".

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dvorak estimates make this a TS
TD16 could become a serious threat if over water for more than 2.5 days

With this thing stalling in very favorable conditions I would not
be surprised to see 100mph cat 2 if it is still offshore thursday into
friday. Shear is lessening as GOM ULL moves away. SSTs are hot! Convection is seriously increasing.
Heavy supply of moisture from the North is getting drawn towards the
center.

Could get intense into late week.

It's hardly even a TS right now- but stall it out for 3 days and we have
big problems- BIG TROUBLE down the road

[ga_ben]

With the center seeming to reform north I guess Georgia's chances for a landfalling system increases. Guess it all depends on when the high starts influencing TD 16

[Amanzi]

SeaBrz... I hear what you are saying! It has been pouring rain here on and off the last couple of days. Since this morning the rain has become harder and there is less of a pause between "showers". Right now Im getting whomped.. I dont like wind in my area, I am surounded by HUGE oak trees and at the moment we have a lot of dry limbs on them.. The amount of rain this system could potentially throw at us is what is making me nervos at the moment... we are already seeing problems as per NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.UPDATE...IT FEELS LIKE MONSOON SEASON HAS ARRIVED. MULTIPLE BANDS
OF SHOWERS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS HAVE INUNDATED THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND ARE SPREADING WELL INLAND BEFORE FIZZLING. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED WINDS GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS
BUT ALLOWED IT TO EXPIRE INLAND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY STILL PRODUCE
WINDS GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH INLAND BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 15
MPH OR LESS.

SEVERAL REPORTS OF STREET FLOODING OF 4-5 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
AS WELL AS ONE REPORT OF A FOOT OF WATER AT AN INTERSECTION. HAVE
ISSUED SEVERAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES AS THESE RAIN
BANDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. DUE TO HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE PERIODICALLY FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES OF NE FLORIDA. HAVE CONFINED THE
FLOOD WATCH TIME FRAME TO WHEN NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING...THE RAINFALL AMOUNT IS DEPENDENT ON WHAT
T.D. 16 DECIDES TO DO.

HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND
ZONES TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

[jimvb]

I don't see how you can make any kind of reasonable forecast, seeing the map posted by southfloridawx2005, the one from methaz.org. The model paths go every which way, into the GOM, fish in the Atlantic, towards the Carolinas, and smash into Florida where it probably would weaken considerably. There are even model paths that say it will go to Cuba! So just throw a pair of dice and you will come as close as you can to predicting this thing.

[krysof]

We could use some rain in the northeast. We haven't had rain for a couple of weeks now. Most of August has been bone dry, only a few showers now and then, and so far no rain in September. I don't like this, I hate droughts and if this continues drought conditions are very likely. Then again other parts of the country have it much worse.

[Eyes2theSkies]

wxman57 where do you think this one is going? if the center has relocated that far north is this a GA storm or does the ridge form strong and push this thing W or WNW?

[SeaBrz_FL]

Amanzi -- You sound like you're getting the same weather that I had yesterday. I hope it passes quickly, but in the meantime -- stay clear of those old tree limbs!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I have even read some posts from other weather discussions saying that the high is going to be stronger than forecast and therefore push our TD across Florida and the GOM on a SW TRACK!!! Same as KATRINA just a little further north starting out. It all just depends on when the high will start to push down on TD 16 if it will cross Florida or not. My gut feeling is a Katrina type track just becasue this is almost exactly how it all started about 2 weeks ago. Remeber hardly any models had her going in the Gulf at first, then she turned west and my how things changed in a hurry.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The buoys show that the LLC is now under the convection. The system is starting to tighten up. I expect this will become a tropical storm very soon.

[jaxfladude]

Man, the local Jax TV mets still are not sure and will not be sure for 12 hours or so...just saying keep an eye on it....by tomorrow afternon should be when they are going to say yes or no

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES... 105 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH
... 6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THAN TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SISTEEN.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

125
WTNT21 KNHC 070232
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z WED SEP 07 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ON EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 78.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 78.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.1N 79.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.5N 79.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.8N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

Interesting west turn after landfall...

[jdray]

TD 16 meet ridge.
Ridge meet TD16.


hmm........

[Swimdude]

Not a good looking West turn, but i'm not worrying too much... Even if that track eventually goes South towards the GOM, we'll hardly have much of a storm on our hands. But still, that won't be any fun...

[nequad]

Been a loooonnnnnnnngggggggggggggg time since that part of the coast saw a landfall. I'd be surprised if this made landfall there...but then again this is 2005...

[Brent]

Been a loooonnnnnnnngggggggggggggg time since that part of the coast saw a landfall. I'd be surprised if this made landfall there...but then again this is 2005...

After Katrina moved SW across Florida, I'm not ruling out anything.

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

DATA FROM THE WSR-88D AT MELBOURNE SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST. THE EARLIER NOAA AIRCRAFT FLIGHT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 27 KT MORE THAN 60 N MI AWAY FROM THE BROAD
CENTER. BASED ON A 27 KT WIND FROM BUOY 41010 AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE LAST 30 MIN OR SO...THE
MELBOURNE RADAR HINTS THAT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE MAY BE
FORMING. THE NEXT NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CYCLONE AT
ABOUT 06Z TO SEE IF THAT IS THE CASE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/3...WITH THE RADAR DATA
HINTING AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN THERE IS SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE. THE GFDL...GFDN...ECMWF...AND BAMS TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND BAMD TURN IT NORTHWARD AND
EVEN NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE CYCLONE
BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENT
TRACKS RESULT MAINLY FROM WHICH SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGER...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME WHICH CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE WILL BE CORRECT. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
PROBABLY SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY LET UP IN
12-24 HR AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE BAMS AND BAMD
SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THAT
TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL AND FAR ABOVE THE GFDL FORECAST. THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST
THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A
MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 27.4N 78.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 27.7N 78.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 28.1N 79.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 28.5N 79.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 28.8N 80.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 30.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND