Tropical Storm Ophelia

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jaxfladude
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#201 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:14 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Serious deepening taking place--- very likely a TS by 1100 PM
YIKES-A-RONI :eek: :eek: :eek:


Details please..... :?:
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#202 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:15 pm

jaxfladude wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Serious deepening taking place--- very likely a TS by 1100 PM
YIKES-A-RONI :eek: :eek: :eek:


Details please..... :?:


convection exploding over center
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#203 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:19 pm

Has good banding too to the North
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truballer#1

#204 Postby truballer#1 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:21 pm

looks bigger then katrina did when she was a td
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#205 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:22 pm

HELLO I'M SHEAR AND I HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE STORM TO THE SOUTH AND ONCE I DECREASE I WILL GIVE THIS ONE A CHANCE AT STRENGTHENING.



:grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr:

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truballer#1

#206 Postby truballer#1 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:24 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:HELLO I'M SHEAR AND I HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE STORM TO THE SOUTH AND ONCE I DECREASE I WILL GIVE THIS ONE A CHANCE AT STRENGTHENING.



:grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr: :grrr:

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lol
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jaxfladude
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#207 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:24 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:
jaxfladude wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Serious deepening taking place--- very likely a TS by 1100 PM
YIKES-A-RONI :eek: :eek: :eek:


Details please..... :?:


convection exploding over center
Image



Yikes!!!! :eek: :eek:
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#208 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:26 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am getting concerned. IMO with this thing over water for 2-3 days
it could really strenghten given decreasing shear, warm gulf stream,
and a general favorable environment. I say at least a minimal
hurricane before landfall. Perhaps up to 85 mph. Steering currents
appear to me simply too weak to push this thing anywhere anytime
soon. Also look at how quickly Nate exploded into a very well-defined
system. It was barely TD yesterday at same time.
Looks like this could strenghten quite a bit.

Hurricane watches going up late tomorrow for FL East coast would
not surprise me. LOOK at the conditions it is in. Simply insane 2005 rolls
on and on...

As for path- I really can't say anything definite, but
Anywhere from S. FLorida to the Carolinas needs to watch this VERY
CLOSELY.
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Derek Ortt

#209 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:30 pm

its only slowly organizing. Seening no signs of any bombing or anything like that

center does appear to be reforming a bit farther to the north as well
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#210 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:32 pm

Yea no bombing just yet but with it staying over that hot water for more than 1.5 days I think we will have a hurricane easily.
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#211 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:33 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its only slowly organizing. Seening no signs of any bombing or anything like that

center does appear to be reforming a bit farther to the north as well


I agree. Ill stick with the thinking of the pro-mets like yourself for now.

<RICKY>
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#212 Postby jaxfladude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:34 pm

truballer#1 wrote:looks bigger then katrina did when she was a td



That name is banned from this Talkin' Tropics forum. it is TO BE ONLY used in Hurricane Recovery and Aftermath forum..sorry just a rant :oops:
Last edited by jaxfladude on Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#213 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:35 pm

truballer#1 wrote:looks bigger then katrina did when she was a td


Indeed it is larger in size, but thankfully not in intensity.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#214 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:35 pm

I think a cat 2 is not out of the question....as it drifts NW its in water not churned up by tropical systems this season...full of energy, possibly some of the atlantic basins warmest heat source...lessening shear...maybe a 100-105mph storm....SIGNIFICANT by JAX standards!
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#215 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:37 pm

hurricanedude wrote:I think a cat 2 is not out of the question....as it drifts NW its in water not churned up by tropical systems this season...full of energy, possibly some of the atlantic basins warmest heat source...lessening shear...maybe a 100-105mph storm....SIGNIFICANT by JAX standards!


I agree. It's certainly not out of the question. This system has my undivided attention now.
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#216 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:38 pm

Looks like a weak TS Now:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

Outflow goes all the way to the carolinas
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFloridawx
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#217 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:39 pm

HI I'M LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND I'M PUSHING THIS THING TO THE NORTH.......

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Steve H.
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#218 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:39 pm

I dunno. Convection north of the center (and over it) is becoming more concentrated, but moisture around the periphery of the storm is decreasing. Right now maybe some slow strenthening, but I'm not overly impressed until I can center a defined circulation center.
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#219 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:40 pm

AS I GROW IN STRENGTH AND HEIGHT I WILL BE PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS!!!!

:P :P :P :P :P :P :P

THATS WHY MY FORCAST IS SO UNCERTAIN.....

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#220 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Sep 06, 2005 6:41 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:AS I GROW IN STRENGTH AND HEIGHT I WILL BE PUSHED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS!!!!

:P :P :P :P :P :P :P

THATS WHY MY FORCAST IS SO UNCERTAIN.....

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AWESOME PERSONIFICATION!!! I LOVE THE LITERARY TECHNIQUES!
I am taking AP English Literature right now as a high school senior.
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