GOM Swirl

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artist
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GOM Swirl

#1 Postby artist » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:04 am

is that swirl in the gulf anything to worry about?
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cjrciadt
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Re: GOM Swirl

#2 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:07 am

artist wrote:is that swirl in the gulf anything to worry about?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Umm........ I want to say no, however whatever is there is growing, could be just a ULC.
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#3 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:07 am

ULL......Upper Level Low and associated tropical wave. Nothing to worry about
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#4 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:11 am

if thats the area in the BOC then some models yesterday had it developing and going into texas!
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#5 Postby no advance » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:21 am

JB this morning mentioned it. ULL needs to move SW this would allow the low pressure in the BoC to move NW.
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#6 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:27 am

That isn't too bad in the central GOM. If that persists, we could really see something out of this, as it is getting better organized over time.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 9:35 am

Very minimal threat of anything developing with the large ULL over the WGOM and not moving much at all.
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#8 Postby Byrd » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:55 pm

Dr. Lyons just said it needs to be "watched closely."
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#9 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 4:58 pm

He always says that. Good to do during the peak of the season but still no threat. Why create more hype. Until there is something at the surface no need for concern
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#10 Postby hicksta » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:06 pm

Kat, do you remember alicia.
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#11 Postby linkerweather » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:09 pm

KatDaddy wrote:He always says that. Good to do during the peak of the season but still no threat. Why create more hype. Until there is something at the surface no need for concern


Well, not a bad idea to be somewhat concerned considering general surface pressures are low, water temps are high, and there is a surface trough with some lower spin right there. Conditions are not explosively favorable but should that convection on the east side of the ULL persist it may just create a spin lower down. That type of development is quite common in september and October
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#12 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:12 pm

Yes but we have a ULL this time. Very slow to develop if any.
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#13 Postby corpusbreeze » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:26 pm

This may be mid to upper level, but I fear it could make it down to surface in a day or two.It seems to be comming together very quickly. The central to west GOM is very ripe for developement, also high pressure should reteat north and open up the Texas coast for whatever this is in the central gulf. However you want to slice it it means big rains for us here in South Texas.
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#14 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:30 pm

Not even mentioned by the 530 TWO. To much hype after Katrina. There have been many mid to upper level lows that never make it to the surface.
Until TWO mentions anything I am not concerned.
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#15 Postby linkerweather » Tue Sep 06, 2005 5:58 pm

from the 2 pm TWD....

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER ABOUT
200 NM SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THIS TROUGH...
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER CYCLONIC
CENTER IS SPINNING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH A TROUGH
CURVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
PROBABLY BEING SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
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