Tropical Storm Ophelia

[mahicks]

kinda off topic, but whats up with Tallahassees radar??

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.ktlh.shtml

weird...

[Rainband]

kinda off topic, but whats up with Tallahassees radar??

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.ktlh.shtml

weird...

happens in Tampa all the time

[Dean4Storms]

TD 16 does not look to good this pm. The broad and diffused center appears now to be east of Melbourne around 120 miles or so, at least that seems to be the center of the overall circulation with convection just to its east. The West, SW and Southern periphery are almost totally void of any convection, maybe a sign of dry air entrainment from the ridging to the west and north of the system. Overall movement appears now to be more wnw allbeit more of a drift than a movement. I also wonder if the center reformed to this position much further north rather than moved?

I don't see this sytem making TS force anytime real soon.

[Jevo]

From looking at WSR-88D out of Melbourne and visible Sat. imagery the NHC track is a bust. It appears to be much further north and now appears to be moving more westward and is miles ahead of the forecasted positions.

That would be great for us here in Jupiter. We've had too much rain already. The ground is pretty saturated as it is, we don't need any more for quite a while.

GO BABY GO GET INLAND!!!!!!!!!

[SamSagnella]

Sixteen has been disorganized all day (even appearing to degenerate to an open wave at some point) though now it appears that the center of TD16 has reformed farther north and underneath intermittant bursts of deep convection. Based on radar data from KMLB, I estimate the center to be located about 90 miles east of Melbourne.

The steering currents influencing the depression are quite weak, so the slow forward movement should continue for another day or so before moving slowly to the W or NW. This should give the system ample time to organize itself over the warm waters of the gulf stream.

There has been a significant decrease in wind shear over the past 24 hours and upper level winds are now favorable for further development. Waters are warm (~30C), there is good upper level divergence, and the only real inhibiting factor that I can find is the slow forward speed and the associated upwelling, which will become a concern sooner rather than later. That being said, the depression has actually decreased in organization today, so we'll have to wait and see what this system will do.

As far as intensity guidance is concerned, the models are all over the place with SHIPS bringing (Ophelia) to 66kts in about 3 days, whereas the GFDL shows little in the way of intensification. If the depression can get its act together in the short term conditions are favorable for strengthening, but until consistent organization begins, heavy rains are the main threat. As the NHC notes in its 21z discussion, it is difficult to forecast strengthening when the (almost) always reliable GFDL indicates the opposite.

[feederband]

does look n ...not unless it is under that convection to the se.hmmm

[Cookiely]

Interesting Discussion:
000
FXUS62 KTBW 061752
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
152 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURS)...ALL "EYES" FOCUSED ON DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO OUR EAST...WHICH IS GRADUALLY GETTING ITS ACT
TOGETHER. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFUSE AND DISORGANIZED...AND AS OF
THIS WRITING IS BARELY MOVING. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF
WESTWARD PUSH TO THE CONVERGENT FEEDER BANDS WHICH ARE
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. BUT ITS CURRENT LOCATION...AND MORNING SATELLITE PHOTOS
AND RAOBS...LEND A CLUE.

FIRST...INTENSITY. OF INTEREST ON SATELLITE ARE FOUR SYSTEMS IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN AND GULF WHICH ALMOST APPEAR "LINKED" TOGETHER
(MARIA/NATE/T.D. 16 AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF). OUR
KEY LIES IN THE GULF LOW AND THE SEMI-PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE.

THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF IS GRADUALLY GETTING OUT OF THE WAY...EXIT
STAGE LEFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WHATEVER SHEAR IN THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT (MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF) TO WEAKEN. COMBINE THIS
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR/OVER THE GULF STREAM...SEE NO
REASON WHY THE CYCLONE WON`T STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. HOW QUICKLY? NOT SURE YET...BUT NOTE THAT NEARBY WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA.

SECOND...TRACK. THOUGH THE CENTRAL GULF LOW IS SLIDING WEST...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...IN
THE EASTERN GULF TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS CURRENT FORECAST
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT IT`S GONNA
BE CLOSE. THE WINDS AROUND THE GULF TROUGH ARE QUITE TIGHT (NOTE
THAT ATLANTA`S RAOB HAS DECENT SOUTHWESTERLIES ABOVE 400 MB WHILE
BIRMINGHAMS`S WERE NORTHEAST!). THE LATEST GFDL NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM
MORE WESTWARD...SO MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

THEREAFTER...THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE GETS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO "FEEL" THE FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF IT DOES...IT
SHOULD MAKE THE TURN WITH THE WESTERLIES AND HEAD AWAY FROM THE
REGION.

HOWEVER...IF IT DOESN`T...THE LATEST MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY STEER THE SYSTEM OR ITS
REMNANTS BACK TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS INTO THE GULF. STAY TUNED!

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL FORECAST BASED ON NHC TRACK AND GFS
TREND SHOWING A NORTH/NORTHWEST NUDGE. WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING
SOUTH OF 28N THROUGH THURSDAY...THE BETTER CONVERGENCE IN
GEOSTROPHIC EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RULE EACH AFTERNOON...
INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO NUMEROUS IN ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE COASTAL WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON. LACK OF HEATING WILL TAPER THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY EACH
EVENING...BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION ALTOGETHER.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35
MPH.

SKIES WILL TEND TO BE CLEARER AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING...
CLOUDING UP NICELY EACH AFTERNOON...SO HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY AS
WELL. AS FOR RAINFALL...NORTHEAST FLOW IN THESE TYPES OF EVENTS
FAVORS THE EAST COAST...WITH A GRADUAL DROP-OFF AS BANDS CROSS THE
PENINSULA. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QUANTITATIVE PRECIP FORECASTS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR INTERIOR CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR HEAVIEST RAINS EACH
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...AND REFRESHING
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL MAKE IT EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE (RELATIVE TO
TYPICAL EARLY SEPTEMBER CONDITIONS).

NOTE THAT SHOULD THE CYCLONE REMAIN/DEVELOP WELL EAST OF THE
PENINSULA...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE WILL
BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVER EXPECTED FORECAST.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...RIDGING DOWN TO THE GULF
COAST AS IT DOES. HOWEVER...THE MAJOR PLAYER IS NEWLY NUMBERED T.D.
#16 LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS MORNING. MOST RECENT TRACK/
AS OF 11 AM TUE/ MOVES IT TOWARD THE NE FL COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
BUT AS ALWAYS...PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NHC FOR
DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH HIGH END SCATTERED
POPS THAT DECREASE TO MID-RANGE BY TUE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
CLIMO FOR THE TIME BEING. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ACROSS INLAND AND
NORTHERN AREAS TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND TCM
GRIDS.

&&

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest forecast/advisory on TD 16 from the National Hurricane Center...

000
WTNT21 KNHC 062032
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
2100Z TUE SEP 06 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE INCLUDING
MERRITT ISLAND...AND FOR GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS AND BIMINI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA


$$

[Rainband]

I already posted that

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE
REMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE
IS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A
LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE
GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE
WILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT
UP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE
CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW
TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA
SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 26.7N 78.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 27.2N 78.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 27.7N 79.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 28.1N 79.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1800Z 28.7N 80.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/1800Z 29.5N 81.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 11/1800Z 30.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND

[spinfan4eva]

Saint Augustine airport is reporting: 40MPH sustained winds Gusts to 49MPH

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSGJ.html

St. Augustine Airport 16:55 Overcast and Windy NA NA NA E 40 G 49 29.96

[sponger]

I dont know about 40 but we are seeing 30 easily here in Jax.

[Hyperstorm]

Saint Augustine airport is reporting: 40MPH sustained winds Gusts to 49MPH

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KSGJ.html

St. Augustine Airport 16:55 Overcast and Windy NA NA NA E 40 G 49 29.96

spinfan4eva...

That is very likely not directly associated with the tropical depression. There is a strong high pressure to the north of the low which is creating strong NE winds all throughout the peninsula today. A rain squall in the area is also adding to those winds.

NOAA plane did not support a tropical storm...

[Derek Ortt]

recon has the center only slight east of the NHC position. It is still well south of Melbourne, due east of WPB

[Rainband]

Interesting

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
101 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 09 2005 - 12Z TUE SEP 13 2005

TELECONNECTIONS W/THE POSITIVE ANOMALY NR 50N 160W FAVOR AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS NA W/LOWERED HEIGHTS IN CA AND INCREASED
HEIGHTS OVR THE SOUTHEAST...ONE POTENTIALLY STRONGER THAN WHAT THE
SOME OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE MANUAL PROGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW TPC FCST AND 16Z TPC
COORDINATION CALL.

HAWAII..
THE MDLS ARE INDICATING A PSBL TROP CYC TO MOVE NR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TO FORM FROM A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NR 135W. THE 06Z GFS
SHOWS THE MOST NELY TRACK AND THE ECMWF/UKMET KEEPING THE SYS
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. AFTER COORDINATING W/PHNL AND CONSIDERING
CLIMATOLOGY...THE ECMWF WAS CONSIDERED THE PREFERRED SOLN WHICH
KEEPS THE SYS ABOUT 300 NM SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS TRACK WOULD LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN THE TRADEWINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AK...
A PAIR OF SYS ARE EXPECTED TO CIRCUMNAVIGATE THE NRN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE ALEUTIANS RAINY. LESSER AMTS OF
PCPN ARE EXPECTED IN SERN AK DUE TO DEEP NWLY FLOW.

WEST...
ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PD
HERE...DUE TO ITS STRONG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND ITS SUPPORT BY
TELECONNECTIONS W/THE POSITIVE ANOMALY NR 50N 160W. THE UKMET AND
ENSMEAN SUPPORT THE ECMWF...WHICH FORMS A NICE CONSENSUS...AND THE
06Z GFS IS SIMILAR THRU 150 HRS...SHOWING A SOLN BETWEEN ITS
PREVIOUS 48 HRS OF RUNS. THE 06Z GFS CUTS OFF AN UPR CYC OFFSHORE
NRN CA AT THE END OF THE PD. THOUGH THIS IS PSBL...WL STICK W/THE
ECMWF SOLN FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR MORE OF A CONSENSUS.

NORTHEAST/MID ATL...
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF CONFLUENT FLOW OVER ERN CANADA CAN AFFECT
HOW FAR S THE POLAR FRONT SETTLES INTO US...TELECONNECTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAVORED STRONGER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE SWD INTRUSION OF ANY CDFNTS ATTEMPTING TO
MAKE PROGRESS THRU THE REGION. WILL SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION TO THE 06Z GFS SOLN...WHICH IS FAVORED BY THE NCEP
ENSMEAN.

SOUTHEAST...
NO MATTER HOW FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATL SHOULD
FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP
CYC MOTION... USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...AND
IT IS THE MOST WWD OF ALL THE GUIDANCE. THE CAN/NAM/UKMET/NCEP
ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS
ARE CLOSEST TO THE 06Z GFS AT THE SFC AND 00Z NOGAPS... WHICH
NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.

ROTH/CISCO
ñ

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is this thing getting more or less organized right now?

[Steve H.]

I believe it is pulsing up again, and a burst of convection is occurring over and north of the center. Again, the question is, where is the center???? NHC and recon have it east of WPB, and pix give the impression that its east of Melbourne. If the latter is the case, the rough weather will stay north of 28N. I will tend to go with the recon fix, but the stationary thing has me confused, since it is ,2 further north than at 2pm. Maybe its just a re-position thing.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for the info
Yup I too am very confused by this system

[Nimbus]

Looks like it has rolled north, east of Melbourne.

Radar signature is there and look at the Freeport surface winds.

http://tinyurl.com/b8c2p

[Deb321]

I dont know about 40 but we are seeing 30 easily here in Jax.

I just heard on TWC that from around St Augustine, JAX and even the Carolinas will have winds tonight associated with this system. 30-40mph