BOC trouble??....

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dixiebreeze
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BOC trouble??....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:43 pm

Hope not, we sure don't need it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg
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#2 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:44 pm

Convection needs to be sustained for a period of time before I would jump on this to develop!
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:44 pm

Is September and anything that pops should be watched!
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#4 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:47 pm

wx247 wrote:Convection needs to be sustained for a period of time before I would jump on this to develop!


True... but this is how Jose started!
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:48 pm

Buck wrote:
wx247 wrote:Convection needs to be sustained for a period of time before I would jump on this to develop!


True... but this is how Jose started!


Jose was already a very well-defined area of low pressure when it emerged in the BOC, this is just an area of thunderstorms.
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#6 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:01 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Buck wrote:
wx247 wrote:Convection needs to be sustained for a period of time before I would jump on this to develop!


True... but this is how Jose started!


Jose was already a very well-defined area of low pressure when it emerged in the BOC, this is just an area of thunderstorms.


I thought that was Gert... the low pressure system from the W. Car. that moved into the Yucatan. I thought Jose formed from an area of thunderstorms...
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:04 pm

Buck wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
Buck wrote:
wx247 wrote:Convection needs to be sustained for a period of time before I would jump on this to develop!


True... but this is how Jose started!


Jose was already a very well-defined area of low pressure when it emerged in the BOC, this is just an area of thunderstorms.


I thought that was Gert... the low pressure system from the W. Car. that moved into the Yucatan. I thought Jose formed from an area of thunderstorms...


BRET, GERT, AND JOSE, all of them formed from already well-defined areas of circulation that moved over the BOC. None of them came-to-be from just an area of thunderstorms. Now, if this area persists a few days or so, then it may have a chance.
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#8 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:12 pm

My mistake. I didn't pay too close attention to Jose before it developed, I suppose.
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#9 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:38 pm

Looks like the convection in the BOC is hanging in there this evening. Might be a spot to watch.
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#10 Postby fci » Mon Sep 05, 2005 4:46 pm

Won't it just move W into Mexico and have very little time to organize prior to landfall?
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#11 Postby corpusbreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:16 pm

GFS, MM5, UK, are showing a slight hint of something moving out of the BOC to South Texas. JB mentioned it in his afternoon post, and sat loops are starting to show some good build up. If it could stay small we sure could use the rain her in S. Texas.Things are looking very interesting this week, first the BOC system, the system west of Florida that could drift west, and the system moving into the east Carrib. that also could reach the GOM by the end of the week. I hate to say it but the Gulf looks to the active this week.
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:27 pm

And that's an understatement, CorpusBreeze! :)
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#13 Postby Swimdude » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:41 pm

Bret, Gert, and Jose ALL formed there. I believe one of the three crossed the Yucatan as a powerful wave, but the other two DID just pop up over night. [Or during the day, I can't remember which.]

And from what i've been hearing, this convection is heading North. So it has a chance.
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#14 Postby Windy » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:19 pm

As unlikely as the scenario is, something makes me giggle thinking about having a fujiwara in the GOMEX.
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#15 Postby Swimdude » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:21 pm

Windy wrote:As unlikely as the scenario is, something makes me giggle thinking about having a fujiwara in the GOMEX.


Fujiwara... I don't know the term.
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#16 Postby perk » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:30 pm

Fujiwara effect in the GOM, what are you talking about. :?:
.
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#17 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:41 pm

perk wrote:Fujiwara effect in the GOM, what are you talking about. :?:
.


http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wfujiwha.htm
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#18 Postby perk » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:22 pm

wx247 i know what the fujiwhara effect is, i'm curios of why it's being mentioned in relation to the GOM.
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#19 Postby LaBreeze » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:24 pm

Something west of Florida??? Are you refering to the cluster of storms east of Florida? Chances of this moving into the GOM, anyone???
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#20 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:27 pm

hurricane.accuweather.com

Another tropical wave along 85 west and south of 16 north is tracking west at 15 knots and is causing showers and thunderstorms over Central America. This wave may help to cause tropical storm formation over the Bay of Campeche over the next few days.
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