Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

ConvergenceZone · #281 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:34 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:HPC is going with the GFS and GFDL solutions this AM. They have the low headed for New Orleans!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

well, if by chance this does develop in the gulf of Mexico, I too wonder if it would be better if it hit the New Orleans area being that almost everyone is out of the city already. If it's strong and it hits fresh territory, it could mean alot more lives, and right now saving lives is the main importance by now.
Of course this is only if the worse case scenerio happens. Hopefully it will be a weak storm if it does form again in the gulf.

artist · #282 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:44 pm

anyone know where they were going to put up the tent cities???

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #283 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:49 pm

PTrackerLA · #284 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:20 pm

Umm, another storm hitting the New Orleans area would NOT be a good thing. All the refineries would have to shut down AGAIN worsening the gas shortage in areas of the country and driving up gas prices higher, the waters in the city would probably rise even higher flooding even more homes, (There are still many homes in the area that never flooded) causing even more damage on an already battered region. There might not be alot of people in the area but COME ON these people need to start getting their lives back together and salvage what they can, another storm would just about be the cruelest thing mother nature could give us. Please, enough with the " a good thing if it goes to new orleans" comments, they are downright ignorant and rude.

coolwater · #285 Postby **coolwater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:24 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:

Holy Crap, what activity! :crazyeyes:

Thunder44 · #286 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:19 pm

8:05pm discussion:

A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W DRIFTING
TO THE NW. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED IN
MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY BUT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION
IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED ESPECIALLY N OF THE
CENTER AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT AT FREEPORT AND
SETTLEMENT POINT BAHAMAS. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 75W-79W.

artist · #287 Postby **artist** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:57 pm

Hope Town, Bahamas barometric presusre - 29.76 @ 5:46 pm today.

http://www.calypsobahamas.com/current_c ... eather.htm

White Sound 29.796
http://www.rockybay.com/webcam/webcam_page.htm

Deb321 · #288 Postby **Deb321** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:20 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Umm, another storm hitting the New Orleans area would NOT be a good thing. All the refineries would have to shut down AGAIN worsening the gas shortage in areas of the country and driving up gas prices higher, the waters in the city would probably rise even higher flooding even more homes, (There are still many homes in the area that never flooded) causing even more damage on an already battered region. There might not be alot of people in the area but COME ON these people need to start getting their lives back together and salvage what they can, another storm would just about be the cruelest thing mother nature could give us. Please, enough with the " a good thing if it goes to new orleans" comments, they are downright ignorant and rude.

I agree ,another hurricane hitting NO would be devastating. I was hit by 2 hurricanes 3 weeks apart and it only destroys even more never mind you are already emotionally on the edge and a second hit almost pushes you over the edge. It takes a long time to emotionally heal from a hurricane, :cry:

cinlfla · #289 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:26 pm

I agree ,another hurricane hitting NO would be devastating. I was hit by 2 hurricanes 3 weeks apart and it only destroys even more never mind you are already emotionally on the edge and a second hit almost pushes you over the edge. It takes a long time to emotionally heal from a hurricane

I agree

#290 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 8:45 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL942005) ON 20050906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050906 0000 050906 1200 050907 0000 050907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 78.7W 27.2N 79.6W 28.4N 80.6W 29.3N 81.3W
BAMM 26.0N 78.7W 26.7N 79.4W 27.4N 80.2W 28.0N 80.8W
A98E 26.0N 78.7W 26.3N 78.8W 27.0N 79.4W 27.9N 80.0W
LBAR 26.0N 78.7W 26.8N 79.2W 27.9N 79.6W 28.5N 79.8W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 36KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050908 0000 050909 0000 050910 0000 050911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.9N 81.8W 30.3N 82.9W 31.5N 84.1W 33.0N 84.7W
BAMM 28.3N 81.3W 28.6N 82.2W 29.5N 83.8W 30.9N 85.6W
A98E 28.6N 80.7W 29.3N 82.4W 30.5N 84.1W 32.2N 84.7W
LBAR 29.2N 79.2W 30.3N 78.3W 31.9N 75.1W 34.3N 68.3W
SHIP 49KTS 58KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.0N LONCUR = 78.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 78.7W DIRM12 = 336DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 78.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Model Guidance.Still almost stationary and still at 20kts.

#291 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:01 pm

Has anyone noticed the large EDDY (circulation) NE of 94L, it is diving SW towards main circulation. Look at the shortwave floater loop, near the end of the loop about due east of Titusville

cinlfla · #292 Postby **cinlfla** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:02 pm

Has anyone noticed the large EDDY (circulation) NE of 94L, it is diving SW towards main circulation. Look at the shortwave floater loop, near the end of the loop about due east of Titusville

And what does that mean?

#293 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:06 pm

Well i'm not sure it means anything, maybe nothing, maybe it will become the main circulation center

BensonTCwatcher · #294 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:12 pm

This was identified in this thread http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=73647

non-tropical, it will probably now disspate over land.

#295 Postby **SeaBrz_FL** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:33 pm

000
FXUS62 KMLB 060052
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
852 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2005

DISCUSSION...

... WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SHOWERS MOVE ON TO THE COAST. IR IMAGERY SHOWS A NOCTURNAL FLARE UP IN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CENTERED SOUTH OF GRAND BAHAMA. RUC/12 KM ETA SHOW BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THIS REGION WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED INTO TUE. AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL RUNS ON MAIN OP MODELS SHOW THAT SYS WL BE WITH US FOR AWHILE CAPPED BY HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.

...

I can verify the 25-30 mph gusts!

#296 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 9:50 pm

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING... CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

10:30 PM TWO.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #297 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:45 pm

LLC is developing near 26 north/78.5. This LLC has become much better defined with a area of convection forming over it. It will be interesting to see what the recon finds.

If this forms we will most likely beat 1933,1995... :wink:

#298 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:57 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:LLC is developing near 26 north/78.5. This LLC has become much better defined with a area of convection forming over it. It will be interesting to see what the recon finds.

If this forms we will most likely beat 1933,1995...

It's looking very worrisome at this hour.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #299 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:06 am

It might just be a Jerry 1995. In which would be another name on our record.

#300 Postby **sponger** » Tue Sep 06, 2005 12:30 am

Hi night owls, any one have a link so I can see this thing? My link site is still down! Tropical showers here in St Auguistine with winds gusting to 20.

Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

Spare NO

Who is online