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#201 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:38 am

Anyone know how long this thing is supposed to remain over water
before reaching land, if it reaches land?
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#202 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:40 am

sadly, the waters are still plenty warm to support a major, and they are rebounding
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#203 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:53 am

Why is everyone so hype on a GOM system. This one has a better chance of moving up the Eastern Seaboard. More models are showing this today. I for one hope this is not another GOM threat.
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#204 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:55 am

KatDaddy wrote:Why is everyone so hype on a GOM system. This one has a better chance of moving up the Eastern Seaboard. More models are showing this today. I for one hope this is not another GOM threat.


look at the model map, they are split between the 2, chances are not favoring 1 over the other
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#205 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 05, 2005 10:58 am

KatDaddy wrote:Why is everyone so hype on a GOM system. This one has a better chance of moving up the Eastern Seaboard. More models are showing this today. I for one hope this is not another GOM threat.


Not really. The GFDL model has had a consistent track across the peninsula to the GOM the last 3 runs. The latest GFS also brings it across the peninsula. I agree there's still some uncertainty, but these are two good models and looking at the big picture - there's this big ole blocking high pressure off the east coast which isn't gonna allow it to move north or northeast up to the carolinas.
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#206 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:09 am

ronjon wrote:Not really. The GFDL model has had a consistent track across the peninsula to the GOM the last 3 runs. The latest GFS also brings it across the peninsula. I agree there's still some uncertainty, but these are two good models and looking at the big picture - there's this big ole blocking high pressure off the east coast which isn't gonna allow it to move north or northeast up to the carolinas.


I agree. Even if it may move somewhat north, I don't expect it to move very far north. A more northward track (turn) is more likely after it makes landfall and starts to cross the Florida peninsula.
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#207 Postby gunner1551 » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:12 am

Just an ob, some features that appear to be banding starting to form S and SE of Florida. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
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#208 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:13 am

The upper level flow in the mid gulf is still from the southwest towards the northeast.
The lower level clouds seem to be headed towards the west and you can see the resulting shear on the visibles.
I'm guessing the models that track west towards Louisiana are using the lower level winds for steering assuming a weak system?

Since this morning the circulation has picked up quite a bit. Should be a TD by 5PM since the southeast coast will be getting a lot of uneeded rain and some of those squalls might have tropical storm force winds by then.
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#209 Postby cloud_galaxy » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:19 am

Yes a strong system in GOM is possibly but less likely IMO than with Katrina because Katrina took some heat energy out.

IMO this may not be as intense as Katrina, but even with the current
SSTs it certainly bears watching.


I agree, especially with the SST around the Florida tip practically unaffected by Katrina. If this system continues to the SW, it will never touch the colder areas of the Gulf.Image
Today's SST image from:http://e450.colorado.edu/realtime/gom_overlay/
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#210 Postby no advance » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:20 am

So you are saying Nimbus since it is developing the cyclone will likely move north. If it stays weak it will drift west?
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#211 Postby Steve H. » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:20 am

Is this moving on shore already, or is the circulation "center" still in the Bahamas?? Hard to tell. Local Melb office says it won't approach the coast til Wednesday. I find that hard to believe.
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#212 Postby nequad » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:25 am

The broad circulation is nearly stationary. It's not moving on land any time soon.
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#213 Postby CFL » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:29 am

Link to the current models, please?
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#214 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:31 am

Image
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#215 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:31 am

So you are saying Nimbus since it is developing the cyclone will likely move north. If it stays weak it will drift west?


Well thats the way it looks right now, but since this system is forecast to move so slowly the ridge could build in west at all levels by later in the week.

I hope the NHC starts issuing forcasts soon.
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#216 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:31 am

Circulation center looks to be just south of Grand Bahama Island according to this Miami radar...


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/radar-local ... &anim=loop
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#217 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:33 am

1009mb low and has drifted SW since early this am by about 40 miles or so.
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#218 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:39 am

cloud_galaxy wrote:
Yes a strong system in GOM is possibly but less likely IMO than with Katrina because Katrina took some heat energy out.

IMO this may not be as intense as Katrina, but even with the current
SSTs it certainly bears watching.


I agree, especially with the SST around the Florida tip practically unaffected by Katrina. If this system continues to the SW, it will never touch the colder areas of the Gulf.Image
Today's SST image from:http://e450.colorado.edu/realtime/gom_overlay/

Day 244 was actually last thursday
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#219 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:42 am

HPC is going with the GFS and GFDL solutions this AM. They have the low headed for New Orleans!


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif
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#220 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 05, 2005 11:42 am

KatDaddy wrote:Why is everyone so hype on a GOM system. This one has a better chance of moving up the Eastern Seaboard. More models are showing this today. I for one hope this is not another GOM threat.


I would like to know where all these models are showing it going up the eastern seaboard. Do tell.
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