Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

When do you all think 94L will become a TD?

[dixiebreeze]

GFDL predicts a small swath of tropical storm force winds crossing FL and
passing right over Tampa Bay. Gonna be a windy week if that pans out

Good news is it might be ripped apart by the time it reaches GOM.So it would be unlikely to intensify rapidly if it does reach GOM.

There's not much in Florida to "rip" anything --- very flat and lots of inland water.

[rockyman]

Center seems to be consolidating south of the initial position of the current model runs...ESE of Miami...this could have a substantial impact on the eventual track of 94L. Looks more and more like this will be a Gomex system.

[dixiebreeze]

Center seems to be consolidating south of the initial position of the current model runs...ESE of Miami...this could have a substantial impact on the eventual track of 94L. Looks more and more like this will be a Gomex system.

I agree, also means it will probably be stronger if it continues the slight SW track across the Peninsula and into the GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFDL predicts a small swath of tropical storm force winds crossing FL and
passing right over Tampa Bay. Gonna be a windy week if that pans out

Good news is it might be ripped apart by the time it reaches GOM.So it would be unlikely to intensify rapidly if it does reach GOM.

There's not much in Florida to "rip" anything --- very flat and lots of inland water.

Yup you're right. 94L is looking like a real threat unfortunately.

[Cookiely]

It could be a whole lot worse. Thank God for the technology that we have today. I can't imagine what is was like when there was virtually no warning.

[rockyman]

GFDL predicts a small swath of tropical storm force winds crossing FL and
passing right over Tampa Bay. Gonna be a windy week if that pans out

Good news is it might be ripped apart by the time it reaches GOM.So it would be unlikely to intensify rapidly if it does reach GOM.

There's not much in Florida to "rip" anything --- very flat and lots of inland water.

Plus...the system is forming to the ESE of Miami (not east of West Palm Beach like it looked yesterday)...so the tip of Florida might be the only area the system touches...and we all know what happened last time a system crossed over the swamplands of extreme southern Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Center seems to be consolidating south of the initial position of the current model runs...ESE of Miami...this could have a substantial impact on the eventual track of 94L. Looks more and more like this will be a Gomex system.

I agree, also means it will probably be stronger if it continues the slight SW track across the Peninsula and into the GOM.

Just out of curiosity, what is supposed to turn this thing northbound
down the line? A trough?

[spinfan4eva]

It could be a whole lot worse. Thank God for the technology that we have today. I can't imagine what is was like when there was virtually no warning.

1933 all over again, at least now we know its coming.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Posted by Dixiebreeze in another thread:

http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php

[cjrciadt]

Look at difference in two hours.

[dixiebreeze]

Center seems to be consolidating south of the initial position of the current model runs...ESE of Miami...this could have a substantial impact on the eventual track of 94L. Looks more and more like this will be a Gomex system.

I agree, also means it will probably be stronger if it continues the slight SW track across the Peninsula and into the GOM.

Just out of curiosity, what is supposed to turn this thing northbound
down the line? A trough?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

[beachbum_al]

I am sorry but I am having flashbacks from last week. I don't even want to even think of this system coming into the GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Center seems to be consolidating south of the initial position of the current model runs...ESE of Miami...this could have a substantial impact on the eventual track of 94L. Looks more and more like this will be a Gomex system.

I agree, also means it will probably be stronger if it continues the slight SW track across the Peninsula and into the GOM.

Just out of curiosity, what is supposed to turn this thing northbound
down the line? A trough?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/WV/20.jpg

This could be a scenario I hope doesn't play out...

[spinfan4eva]

Does anybody have water temp maps that are current (since Katrina) for the gulf?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

water temps

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think we'll have a depression by 5 PM. This system is organizing
rapidly. Not only that, it's moving very slowly over a warm gulf
stream

[KWT]

Remind anyone of Katrina,it did the exact same thing,granted it is a little worse organised but if the track does take it across Florida(I haven't seen the models and surface obs yet!)and into the GOM,I think a major is more then likely once again in the offing if it gets 3 days over water,hopefully not!

[cjrciadt]

I think we'll have a depression by 5 PM. This system is organizing
rapidly. Not only that, it's moving very slowly over a warm gulf
stream

I agree, I notice a SW movement as well.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Remind anyone of Katrina,it did the exact same thing,granted it is a little worse organised but if the track does take it across Florida(I haven't seen the models and surface obs yet!)and into the GOM,I think a major is more then likely once again in the offing if it gets 3 days over water,hopefully not!

Yes a strong system in GOM is possibly but less likely IMO than with Katrina because Katrina took some heat energy out.

IMO this may not be as intense as Katrina, but even with the current
SSTs it certainly bears watching.